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House price history, biased expectations, and credit cycles: The role of housing investors

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  • Alessia De Stefani

Abstract

Using the Michigan Survey, I show that consumers' house price expectations depend upon the recent history of house price developments in their city of residence. Forecast errors are predictable: people systematically underestimate momentum and neglect mean reversion, remaining over‐optimistic for several quarters after a prolonged trend of house price growth, and vice versa. Housing appreciation also increases the share of consumers who believe that real estate is a good investment. Combining loan‐level data from Freddie Mac to regional measures of housing sentiment, I show that an exogenous shift in house price expectations leads to an increase in leverage on new mortgage originations. The effect is concentrated on investment properties and among prime borrowers in nonrecourse states.

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  • Alessia De Stefani, 2021. "House price history, biased expectations, and credit cycles: The role of housing investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1238-1266, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:49:y:2021:i:4:p:1238-1266
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12328
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    1. Pyo, Dong-Jin, 2022. "Sentiment Shock and Housing Prices: Evidence from Korea," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 44(4), pages 79-108.
    2. Kiesl-Reiter, Sarah, 2024. "Subjective Expectations about Joint Return Distributions," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302423, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Margaret Jacobson, 2019. "Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom," 2019 Meeting Papers 1549, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Natalia S. Nikitina, 2022. "Forecasting the Real Estate Price Index in Russia [Прогнозирование Индекса Цен На Недвижимость В России]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 6, pages 23-28, June.
    5. Badescu, Alexandru & Quaye, Enoch & Tunaru, Radu, 2022. "On non-negative equity guarantee calculations with macroeconomic variables related to house prices," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 119-138.
    6. Natalia S. Nikitina, 2022. "Прогнозирование Индекса Цен На Недвижимость В России," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 6, pages 23-28, June.
    7. Carlos Garriga & Pedro Gete & Athena Tsouderou, 2023. "The economic effects of real estate investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 655-685, May.
    8. Mérő, Bence & Borsos, András & Hosszú, Zsuzsanna & Oláh, Zsolt & Vágó, Nikolett, 2023. "A high-resolution, data-driven agent-based model of the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    9. Kumar Verma, Akhilesh & McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Assessing expectations of European house prices," Papers WP783, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Rooj, Debasis & Banerjee, Anurag & Sengupta, Reshmi, 2024. "Impact of macroprudential policies on house price expectations- evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    11. Carro, Adrian, 2023. "Taming the housing roller coaster: The impact of macroprudential policy on the house price cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

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