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Heterogeneity in expectations and house price dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Ludwig, Alexander
  • Mankart, Jochen
  • Quintana, Jorge
  • Wiederholt, Mirko

Abstract

Expectations are central for housing decisions and heterogeneity in expectations is a robust feature of survey data. We study the implications of heterogeneity in house price growth expectations for the level of house prices. We feed the joint empirical distributions of income, wealth and expectations into a calibrated heterogeneous agents housing model. We find that eliminating heterogeneity in house price growth expectations would raise average house prices and amplify house price fluctuations thereby reducing the fit of the model. Without heterogeneity, average house prices would be about 11 percent higher and the boom-bust cycle would be about 41 percent larger.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludwig, Alexander & Mankart, Jochen & Quintana, Jorge & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2024. "Heterogeneity in expectations and house price dynamics," SAFE Working Paper Series 432, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:306360
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4967237
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; survey expectations; house price cycles; life-cycle model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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