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Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance

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  • Philippe Andrade
  • Erwan Gautier
  • Eric Mengus
  • Emanuel Mönch
  • Tobias Schmidt

Abstract

We study beliefs about fiscal dominance in a survey of German households. We first use a randomized controlled trial to identify how fiscal news impact individual debt-to-GDP and inflation expectations. We document that the link between debt and inflation crucially depends on individuals’ views about the fiscal space. News leading individuals to expect higher debt-to-GDP ratios make them more likely to revise upward their inflation expectations. These average effects are due to individuals who think that fiscal resources are more stretched than others. In contrast, individuals who think there is fiscal space do not associate debt with inflation. We then rationalize these results in a New Keynesian model where agents have heterogeneous beliefs about the fiscal space. We show that the heterogeneity of beliefs implies a policy trade-off for the central bank. Agents who expect fiscal dominance in the future exert upward pressure on inflation. An active central bank may choose to partially tolerate this higher inflation due to the real costs of completely stabilizing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Andrade & Erwan Gautier & Eric Mengus & Emanuel Mönch & Tobias Schmidt, 2025. "Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance," Working papers 986, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:986
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
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    4. Bassetto, Marco & Cui, Wei, 2018. "The fiscal theory of the price level in a world of low interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 5-22.
    5. Barthélemy, Jean & Mengus, Eric & Plantin, Guillaume, 2024. "The central bank, the treasury, or the market: Which one determines the price level?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    6. Cochrane, John H, 2001. "Long-Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 69-116, January.
    7. Marco Bassetto, 2002. "A Game-Theoretic View of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2167-2195, November.
    8. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2023. "A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2127-2179.
    9. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Schmidt, Tobias, 2020. "Bundesbank online pilot survey on consumer expectations," Technical Papers 01/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    1. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Casiraghi, Marco & Gelos, Gaston & Harrison, Olamide & Kamber, Gunes, 2024. "Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Expectations; Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Heterogeneous Beliefs; Randomized Control Trial; Survey Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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