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Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets

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Cited by:

  1. Berg, Joyce E. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2019. "Longshots, overconfidence and efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 271-287.
  2. Tai, Chung-Ching & Lin, Hung-Wen & Chie, Bin-Tzong & Tung, Chen-Yuan, 2019. "Predicting the failures of prediction markets: A procedure of decision making using classification models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 297-312.
  3. Martin Lausegger, 2021. "Stock markets in turmoil: political institutions and the impact of elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 172-204, March.
  4. Carsten Schmidt & Axel Werwatz, 2002. "How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  5. Kenneth Oliven & Thomas A. Rietz, 2004. "Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 336-351, March.
  6. Werner Antweiler, 2012. "Long-Term Prediction Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(3), pages 43-61.
  7. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  8. Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2005. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1403-1426, December.
  9. Muren, Astri, 2004. "Unrealistic Optimism about Exogenous Events: An Experimental Test," Research Papers in Economics 2004:1, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  10. Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jorg & Roider, Andreas, 2007. "Herding with and without payoff externalities -- an internet experiment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 391-415, April.
  11. Duersch, Peter & Oechssler, Jörg & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2009. "Incentives for subjects in internet experiments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 120-122, October.
  12. John Fountain & Glenn Harrison, 2011. "What do prediction markets predict?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 267-272.
  13. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
  14. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2009. "Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 55-72.
  15. Vernon L. Smith, 2003. "Constructivist and Ecological Rationality in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 465-508, June.
  16. Vikram Krishnamurthy & Sujay Bhatt, 2015. "Sequential Detection of Market shocks using Risk-averse Agent Based Models," Papers 1511.01965, arXiv.org.
  17. Bennouri, Moez & Gimpel, Henner & Robert, Jacques, 2011. "Measuring the impact of information aggregation mechanisms: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 302-318, May.
  18. Arne Feddersen & Brad R. Humphreys & Brian P. Soebbing, 2017. "Sentiment Bias And Asset Prices: Evidence From Sports Betting Markets And Social Media," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 1119-1129, April.
  19. Jan Hansen & Carsten Schmidt & Martin Strobel, 2004. "Manipulation in political stock markets - preconditions and evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 459-463.
  20. Imlak Shaikh, 2019. "The U.S. Presidential Election 2012/2016 and Investors’ Sentiment: The Case of CBOE Market Volatility Index," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, July.
  21. Abraham Othman & Tuomas Sandholm, 2013. "The Gates Hillman prediction market," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 17(2), pages 95-128, June.
  22. Joyce E. Berg & George R. Neumann & Thomas A. Rietz, 2009. "Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 348-361, March.
  23. Carsten Schmidt & Jens Grossklags, 2004. "Interaction of Human and Artificial Agents on Double Auction Markets - Simulations and Laboratory Experiments," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2003-22, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  24. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578-578, May.
  25. Bin-Tzong Chie & Chih-Hwa Yang, 2021. "Efficiency of the Experimental Prediction Market: Public Information, Belief Evolution, and Personality Traits," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(4), pages 1-3.
  26. Christina Ann LaComb & Janet Arlie Barnett & Qimei Pan, 2007. "The imagination market," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 245-256, July.
  27. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
  28. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 837-849.
  29. Dai, Min & Jia, Yanwei & Kou, Steven, 2021. "The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 561-578.
  30. Boyle, Glenn & Videbeck, Steen, 2005. "A Primer on Information Markets," Working Paper Series 3853, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
  31. Arnaud Z. Dragicevic, 2017. "Option Fund Market Dynamics for Threshold Public Goods," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 21-33, March.
  32. Ackert, Lucy F. & Church, Bryan K. & Zhang, Ping, 2004. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: Evidence from experimental asset markets," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 609-626, October.
  33. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2003. "Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1310-1326, October.
  34. Berlemann, Michael & Schmidt, Carsten, 2001. "Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from an European perspective," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 05/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  35. Arne Feddersen & Brad R. Humphreys & Brian P. Soebbing, 2018. "Sentiment Bias in National Basketball Association Betting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(4), pages 455-472, May.
  36. Berlemann, Michael & Vöpel, Henning, 2012. "Tournament incentives and asset price bubbles: Evidence from a field experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 232-235.
  37. Robert Forsythe & Murray Frank & Vasu Krishnamurthy & Thomas W. Ross, 1998. "Markets as Predictors of Election Outcomes: Campaign Events and Judgement Bias in the 1993 UBC Election Stock Market," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 24(3), pages 329-351, September.
  38. Arne Feddersen & Brad R. Humphreys & Brian P. Soebbing, 2020. "Casual bettors and sentiment bias in NBA and NFL betting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(53), pages 5797-5806, November.
  39. Franch, Fabio, 2021. "Political preferences nowcasting with factor analysis and internet data: The 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
  40. Peeters, Thomas, 2018. "Testing the Wisdom of Crowds in the field: Transfermarkt valuations and international soccer results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 17-29.
  41. Elberse, Anita & Anand, Bharat, 2007. "The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures: An empirical investigation using a simulated market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 319-343, October.
  42. Page, Lionel, 2009. "Is there an optimistic bias on betting markets?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 70-72, February.
  43. Calvin Blackwell & Robert Pickford, 2011. "The wisdom of the few or the wisdom of the many? An indirect test of the marginal trader hypothesis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 164-180, April.
  44. Gregor Bruggelambert, 2004. "Information and efficiency in political stock markets: using computerized markets to predict election results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 753-768.
  45. Michael Berlemann & Forrest Nelson, 2005. "Forecasting Inflation via Experimental Stock Markets Some Results from Pilot Markets," ifo Working Paper Series 10, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  46. Astri Muren, 2012. "Optimistic Behavior When A Decision Bias Is Costly: An Experimental Test," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(2), pages 463-469, April.
  47. repec:awi:wpaper:0420 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Zhang, Junhuan, 2018. "Influence of individual rationality on continuous double auction markets with networked traders," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 353-392.
  49. Hongzhou Chen & Xiaolin Duan & Abdulmotaleb El Saddik & Wei Cai, 2024. "Political Leanings in Web3 Betting: Decoding the Interplay of Political and Profitable Motives," Papers 2407.14844, arXiv.org.
  50. Wiesen, Taylor, 2023. "Aggregate earnings and market expectations in United States presidential election prediction markets," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  51. Alipourfard, Nazanin & Arendt, Beatrix & Benjamin, Daniel Jacob & Benkler, Noam & Bishop, Michael Metcalf & Burstein, Mark & Bush, Martin & Caverlee, James & Chen, Yiling & Clark, Chae, 2021. "Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE)," SocArXiv 46mnb, Center for Open Science.
  52. Barbara Luppi & Francesco Parisi, 2016. "Optimal liability for optimistic tortfeasors," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 559-574, June.
  53. Duersch, Peter & Oechssler, Jörg & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2009. "Incentives for subjects in internet experiments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 120-122, October.
  54. Jay Simon & Donald Saari & Donald Saari, 2020. "Interdependent Altruistic Preference Models," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 189-207, September.
  55. Joyce E. Berg & John Geweke & Thomas A. Rietz, 2010. "Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction markets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 163-186, July.
  56. Jens Grossklags & Carsten Schmidt, 2002. "Artificial Software Agents on Thin Double Auction Markets - A Human Trader Experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-45, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  57. Charles R. Plott, 2000. "Markets as Information Gathering Tools," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(1), pages 1-15, July.
  58. Wolk, K.L. & Peeters, R.J.A.P., 2009. "The role of monetary incentives in prediction markets: a time series approach," Research Memorandum 013, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  59. Davis, Brent, 2015. "Forecasting Elections: Do Prediction Markets Tells Us Anything More than the Polls?," MPRA Paper 65505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Chezum, Brian & Stowe, C. Jill, 2010. "Some Evidence of Information Aggregation in Auction Prices," 2011 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2011, Corpus Christi, Texas 98528, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  61. Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2010. "Elections and Political Risk: New Evidence from Political Prediction Markets in Taiwan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2010-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  62. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
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