IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v55y2009i3p348-361.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering

Author

Listed:
  • Joyce E. Berg

    (Department of Accounting, Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242)

  • George R. Neumann

    (Department of Economics, Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242)

  • Thomas A. Rietz

    (Department of Finance, Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242)

Abstract

We conducted prediction markets designed to forecast post-initial public offering (IPO) valuations before a particularly unique IPO: Google. The prediction markets forecast Google's post-IPO market capitalization relatively accurately. While Google's auction-based IPO price was 15.3% below the first-day closing market capitalization, the final prediction market forecast was only 4.0% above it. The forecast also accorded with the level of over-subscription in the IPO auction. Evidence available to both outsiders (from the prediction market forecasts) and insiders (through the orders in Google's auction) predicted similar degrees of underpricing. We argue that, with repetition, such markets could provide useful information for understanding the IPO process.

Suggested Citation

  • Joyce E. Berg & George R. Neumann & Thomas A. Rietz, 2009. "Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 348-361, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:55:y:2009:i:3:p:348-361
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1080.0956
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0956
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0956?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:789-822 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Aussenegg, Wolfgang & Pichler, Pegaret & Stomper, Alex, 2006. "IPO Pricing with Bookbuilding and a When-Issued Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 829-862, December.
    3. Hsuan‐Chi Chen & Jay R. Ritter, 2000. "The Seven Percent Solution," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1105-1131, June.
    4. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, August.
    5. Robert W. Hahn & Paul Tetlock, 2006. "Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 51409, September.
    6. Bradley, Daniel J. & Jordan, Bradford D., 2002. "Partial Adjustment to Public Information and IPO Underpricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 595-616, December.
    7. Edmond Malinvaud, 1974. "The Allocation of Individual Risks in Large Markets," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques H. Drèze (ed.), Allocation under Uncertainty: Equilibrium and Optimality, chapter 8, pages 110-125, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Raymond D. Sauer, 1998. "The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2021-2064, December.
    9. Loffler, Gunter & Panther, Patrick F. & Theissen, Erik, 2005. "Who knows what when? The information content of pre-IPO market prices," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 466-484, October.
    10. Tim Loughran & Jay R. Ritter, 2002. "Why Don't Issuers Get Upset About Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 413-444, March.
    11. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
    12. Sherman, Ann E., 2005. "Global trends in IPO methods: Book building versus auctions with endogenous entry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 615-649, December.
    13. Francesca Cornelli & David Goldreich & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and Pre‐IPO Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1187-1216, June.
    14. Hughes, Patricia J & Thakor, Anjan V, 1992. "Litigation Risk, Intermediation, and the Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 709-742.
    15. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-1161, December.
    16. Sherman, Ann E. & Titman, Sheridan, 2002. "Building the IPO order book: underpricing and participation limits with costly information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 3-29, July.
    17. Chemmanur, Thomas J, 1993. "The Pricing of Initial Public Offerings: A Dynamic Model with Information Production," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 285-304, March.
    18. Smith, Vernon L, et al, 1982. "Competitive Market Institutions: Double Auctions vs. Sealed Bid-Offer Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 58-77, March.
    19. Forsythe, Robert & Rietz, Thomas A. & Ross, Thomas W., 1999. "Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-110, May.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:421-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Kenneth Oliven & Thomas A. Rietz, 2004. "Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 336-351, March.
    22. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Spindt, Paul A., 1989. "How investment bankers determine the offer price and allocation of new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361.
    23. Thaler, Richard H & Ziemba, William T, 1988. "Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 161-174, Spring.
    24. Yaffa Caspi, 1974. "Optimum Allocation of Risk in a Market With Many Traders," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques H. Drèze (ed.), Allocation under Uncertainty: Equilibrium and Optimality, chapter 6, pages 89-97, Palgrave Macmillan.
    25. Rock, Kevin, 1986. "Why new issues are underpriced," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 187-212.
    26. Lowry, Michelle & Schwert, G. William, 2004. "Is the IPO pricing process efficient?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 3-26, January.
    27. Jenkinson, Tim & Ljungqvist, Alexander, 2001. "Going Public: The Theory and Evidence on How Companies Raise Equity Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780198295990.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2013. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 657-687, Elsevier.
    2. Boulu-Reshef, Béatrice & Comeig, Irene & Donze, Robert & Weiss, Gregory D., 2016. "Risk aversion in prediction markets: A framed-field experiment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 5071-5075.
    3. Steininger, Dennis M. & Gatzemeier, Simon, 2019. "Digitally forecasting new music product success via active crowdsourcing," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 167-180.
    4. Majid Karimi & Stanko Dimitrov, 2018. "On the Road to Making Science of “Art”: Risk Bias in Market Scoring Rules," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 72-89, June.
    5. Heraud, Florian & Page, Lionel, 2024. "Does the left-digit bias affect prices in financial markets?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 20-29.
    6. Bennouri, Moez & Gimpel, Henner & Robert, Jacques, 2011. "Measuring the impact of information aggregation mechanisms: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 302-318, May.
    7. Goodell, John W. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-171.
    8. Joyce E. Berg & John Geweke & Thomas A. Rietz, 2010. "Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction markets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 163-186, July.
    9. Simon Yu Kit Fung & Ferdinand A. Gul & Suresh Radhakrishnan, 2014. "Investment Banks' Entry into New IPO Markets and IPO Underpricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1297-1316, May.
    10. Bourjade Sylvain, 2019. "Uniform Price Auctions with Asymmetric Bidders," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-14, January.
    11. Ho Cheung Brian Lee & Jan Stallaert & Ming Fan, 2020. "Anomalies in Probability Estimates for Event Forecasting on Prediction Markets," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(9), pages 2077-2095, September.
    12. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Predicting catastrophe risk: Evidence from catastrophe bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, August.
    2. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2022. "U.S. banks’ IPOs and political money contributions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Lehmann, Timo & Weber, Matthias, 2021. "IPO Underpricing and Aftermarket Price Accuracy: Auctions vs. Bookbuilding in Japan," SocArXiv sa385, Center for Open Science.
    4. Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kallias, Antonios & Kallias, Konstantinos & Tzeremes, Panayiotis G., 2017. "Political money contributions of U.S. IPOs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-38.
    5. Leite, Tore, 2007. "Adverse selection, public information, and underpricing in IPOs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 813-828, December.
    6. Wang, Liying, 2021. "Lifting the veil: The price formation of corporate bond offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1340-1358.
    7. Zhang, Feng, 2012. "Information precision and IPO pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 331-348.
    8. Chen Su, 2018. "The efficiency of IPO issuing mechanisms and market conditions: evidence in China," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 461-495, August.
    9. Kenji Kutsuna & Janet Kiholm Smith & Richard L. Smith, 2009. "Public Information, IPO Price Formation, and Long‐Run Returns: Japanese Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 505-546, February.
    10. Trauten, Andreas, 2004. "Zur Effizienz von Wertpapieremissionen über Internetplattformen," Working Papers 8, University of Münster, Competence Center Internet Economy and Hybrid Systems, European Research Center for Information Systems (ERCIS).
    11. Sonu, Catherine Heyjung, 2022. "Information quality and IPO underpricing: The role of underwriter pricing and allocation powers," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Ravi Jagannathan & Ann E. Sherman, 2006. "Why Do IPO Auctions Fail?," NBER Working Papers 12151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
    14. Jay R. Ritter, 2003. "Differences between European and American IPO Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(4), pages 421-434, December.
    15. Pons-Sanz, Vicente, 2005. "Who benefits from IPO underpricing? Evidence form hybrid bookbuilding offerings," Working Paper Series 428, European Central Bank.
    16. Fouad Jamaani & Manal Alidarous, 2019. "Review of Theoretical Explanations of IPO Underpricing," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18.
    17. Alex Stomper & Pegaret Pichler, 2004. "Primary Market Design: Direct Mechanisms and Markets," Working Papers 2004.9, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2021. "Market expectations and the impact of credit rating on the IPOs of U.S. banks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 587-610.
    19. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Fu, Huijing & Seguin, Paul J. & Yu, Xiaoyun, 2008. "On the anticipation of IPO underpricing: Evidence from equity carve-outs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 614-629, December.
    20. Bajo, Emanuele & Chemmanur, Thomas J. & Simonyan, Karen & Tehranian, Hassan, 2016. "Underwriter networks, investor attention, and initial public offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 376-408.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:55:y:2009:i:3:p:348-361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.