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Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence

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Cited by:

  1. Calatayud, Julia & Jornet, Marc & Mateu, Jorge & Pinto, Carla M.A., 2023. "A new population model for urban infestations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
  2. Bolger, Fergus & Wright, George, 2017. "Use of expert knowledge to anticipate the future: Issues, analysis and directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 230-243.
  3. Kupiec, Paul H., 2020. "Policy uncertainty and bank stress testing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  4. Riera, Rodrigo & Fath, Brian D. & Herrera, Ada M. & Rodríguez, Ricardo A., 2024. "A strategic roadmap for interdisciplinary modeling in ecology: The result of reading ‘Defining an ecological equation of state: Response to Riera et al. 2023′ (Newman et al., 2023)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 490(C).
  5. Blanc, Sebastian M. & Setzer, Thomas, 2016. "When to choose the simple average in forecast combination," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 3951-3962.
  6. de Rezende, Rafael & Egert, Katharina & Marin, Ignacio & Thompson, Guilherme, 2022. "A white-boxed ISSM approach to estimate uncertainty distributions of Walmart sales," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1460-1467.
  7. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
  8. Konstantinos Nikolopoulos & Waleed S. Alghassab & Konstantia Litsiou & Stelios Sapountzis, 2019. "Long-Term Economic Forecasting with Structured Analogies and Interaction Groups," Working Papers 19018, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  9. Büttner, Daniel & Scheidler, Anne Antonia & Rabe, Markus, 2021. "A reference model for data-driven sales planning: Development of the model's framework and functionality," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. & Blecker, Thorsten (ed.), Adapting to the Future: How Digitalization Shapes Sustainable Logistics and Resilient Supply Chain Management. Proceedings of the Hamburg Internationa, volume 31, pages 441-476, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
  10. Gang Cheng & Sicong Wang & Yuhong Yang, 2015. "Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, November.
  11. Taku Moriyama & Masashi Kuwano & Masahito Nakayama, 2024. "A statistical method for estimating piecewise linear sales trends," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(2), pages 436-444, June.
  12. Aboud, Ahmed, 2023. "Segmental reporting, accounting enforcement, and analyst forecast dispersion in the European Union," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  13. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  14. Anna Borucka, 2023. "Seasonal Methods of Demand Forecasting in the Supply Chain as Support for the Company’s Sustainable Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
  15. Litsiou, Konstantia & Polychronakis, Yiannis & Karami, Azhdar & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Relative performance of judgmental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1185-1196.
  16. Kupiec, Paul H., 2018. "On the accuracy of alternative approaches for calibrating bank stress test models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 132-146.
  17. Tao Xiong & Miao Li & Jia Cao, 2023. "Do Futures Prices Help Forecast Spot Prices? Evidence from China’s New Live Hog Futures," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-16, August.
  18. Purva Grover & Arpan Kumar Kar, 2017. "Big Data Analytics: A Review on Theoretical Contributions and Tools Used in Literature," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 18(3), pages 203-229, September.
  19. repec:aei:rpaper:008586461 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Kwas, Marek & Paccagnini, Alessia & Rubaszek, Michał, 2022. "Common factors and the dynamics of cereal prices. A forecasting perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
  21. Jack Baker & David Swanson & Jeff Tayman, 2021. "The Accuracy of Hamilton–Perry Population Projections for Census Tracts in the United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(6), pages 1341-1354, December.
  22. Kang, Yanfei & Cao, Wei & Petropoulos, Fotios & Li, Feng, 2022. "Forecast with forecasts: Diversity matters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 180-190.
  23. Aysun Kapucugil Ikiz & Gizem Halil Utma, 2023. "Combined Forecasts of Intermittent Demand for Stock-keeping Units (SKUs)," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, June.
  24. López, Ana M., 2016. "El papel de la información económica como generador de conocimiento en el proceso de predicción: comparaciones empíricas del crecimiento del PIB regional /The Role of Economic Information as a Generat," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 34, pages 543-572, Agosto.
  25. López Menéndez, Ana Jesús & Pérez Suárez, Rigoberto, 2017. "Forecasting Performance and Information Measures. Revisiting the M-Competition /Evaluación de Predicciones y Medidas de Información. Reexamen de la M-Competición," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 299-314, Mayo.
  26. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
  27. Alroomi, Azzam & Karamatzanis, Georgios & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Tilba, Anna & Xiao, Shujun, 2022. "Fathoming empirical forecasting competitions’ winners," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1519-1525.
  28. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
  29. Abolghasemi, Mahdi & Hurley, Jason & Eshragh, Ali & Fahimnia, Behnam, 2020. "Demand forecasting in the presence of systematic events: Cases in capturing sales promotions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
  30. Graefe, Andreas, 2023. "Embrace the differences: Revisiting the PollyVote method of combining forecasts for U.S. presidential elections (2004 to 2020)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 170-177.
  31. Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V. & Şimşek, Özgür & Buckmann, Marcus & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2022. "Transparent modeling of influenza incidence: Big data or a single data point from psychological theory?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 613-619.
  32. Ma, Shaohui & Fildes, Robert, 2020. "Forecasting third-party mobile payments with implications for customer flow prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 739-760.
  33. Grossmann, Igor & Rotella, Amanda A. & Hutcherson, Cendri & Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn & Varnum, Michael E. W. & Achter, Sebastian K. & Dhami, Mandeep & Guo, Xinqi Evie & Kara-Yakoubian, Mane R. & Mandel, 2023. "Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change," Other publications TiSEM c14f4a4a-b105-46b3-90f7-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  34. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & de Oliveira Ferrazoli Ribeiro, Fabio & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2017. "Beta forecasting at long horizons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 936-957.
  35. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
  36. Søren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Jim Oeppen & Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen, 2019. "Forecasting Causes of Death using Compositional Data Analysis: the Case of Cancer Deaths," CREATES Research Papers 2019-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  37. López, Ana M. & Flores, Mario A. & Sánchez, Juan I., 2017. "Modelos de series temporales aplicados a la predicción del tráfico aeroportuario español de pasajeros: Un enfoque agregado y desagregado/Forecasting of Spanish Passenger Air Traffic Based on Time Seri," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 395-418, Mayo.
  38. Veiga, Claudimar Pereira da & Veiga, Cássia Rita Pereira da & Puchalski, Weslly & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos & Tortato, Ubiratã, 2016. "Demand forecasting based on natural computing approaches applied to the foodstuff retail segment," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 174-181.
  39. Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V. & Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2018. "When should we use simple decision models? A synthesis of various research strands," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 17-25.
  40. Jeff Tayman & David A. Swanson & Jack Baker, 2021. "Using Synthetic Adjustments and Controlling to Improve County Population Forecasts from the Hamilton–Perry Method," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(6), pages 1355-1383, December.
  41. Nelson, Rohan & Cameron, Andrew & Xia, Charley & Gooday, Peter, 2022. "The ABARES Approach to Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Markets," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 30(6), November.
  42. Juan Tenorio & Wilder Perez, 2024. "Monthly GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data," Papers 2402.04165, arXiv.org.
  43. Theocharis, Zoe & Harvey, Nigel, 2019. "When does more mean worse? Accuracy of judgmental forecasting is nonlinearly related to length of data series," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 10-19.
  44. Fantazzini, Dean, 2023. "Assessing the Credit Risk of Crypto-Assets Using Daily Range Volatility Models," MPRA Paper 117141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Burgess, Stephen & Galletly, Richard & Levina, Iren & O'Neill, Cian & Varadi, Alexandra, 2018. "Measuring risks to UK financial stability," Bank of England working papers 738, Bank of England.
  46. Bogomolova, Svetlana & Szabo, Marietta & Kennedy, Rachel, 2017. "Retailers' and manufacturers' price-promotion decisions: Intuitive or evidence-based?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 189-200.
  47. Douglas MacKinnon & Martin Pavlovič, 2022. "The delayed surplus response for hops related to market dynamics," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 68(8), pages 293-298.
  48. Ulrich Gunter & Irem Önder & Egon Smeral, 2020. "Are Combined Tourism Forecasts Better at Minimizing Forecasting Errors?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-19, June.
  49. Jiří Šindelář, 2019. "Sales forecasting in financial distribution: a comparison of quantitative forecasting methods," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 69-80, December.
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