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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

Author

Listed:
  • Grossmann, Igor
  • Rotella, Amanda A.
  • Hutcherson, Cendri
  • Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn
  • Varnum, Michael E. W.
  • Achter, Sebastian K.
  • Dhami, Mandeep
  • Guo, Xinqi Evie
  • Kara-Yakoubian, Mane R.
  • Mandel, David
  • Raes, Louis

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Tay, Louis
  • Vie, Aymeric
  • Wagner, Lisa
  • Adamkovic, Matus
  • Arami, Arash
  • Arriaga, Patricia
  • Bandara, Kasun
  • Banik, Gabriel
  • Bartos, Frantisek
  • Baskin, Ernest
  • Bergmeir, Christoph
  • Bialek, Michal K.
  • Borsting, Caroline T.
  • Browne, Dillon M.
  • Caruso, Eugene
  • Chen, Rong
  • Chie, Bin-Tzong J.
  • Chopik, William N.
  • Collins, Robert
  • Cong, Chin Wen G.
  • Conway, Lucian
  • Davis, Matthew V.
  • Day, Martin A.
  • Dhaliwal, Nathan D.
  • Durham, Justin
  • Dziekan, Martyna T.
  • Elbaek, Christian
  • Shuman, Eric
  • Fabrykant, Marharyta
  • Firat, Mustafa T.
  • Fong, Geoffrey A.
  • Frimer, Jeremy M.
  • Gallegos, Jonathan B.
  • Goldberg, Simon
  • Gollwitzer, Anton
  • Goyal, Julia
  • Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz D.
  • Gronlund, Scott
  • Hafenbraedl, Sebastian
  • Hartanto, Andree J.
  • Hirshberg, Matthew J.
  • Hornsey, Matthew
  • Howe, Piers D. L.
  • Izadi, Anoosha
  • Jaeger, Bastian

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Kacmar, Pavol
  • Kim, Yeun Joon
  • Krenzler, Ruslan G.
  • Lannin, Daniel
  • Lin, Hung-Wen
  • Lou, Nigel Mantou
  • Lua, Verity Y. Q. W.
  • Lukaszewski, Aaron L.
  • Ly, Albert R.
  • Madan, Christopher
  • Maier, Maximilian M.
  • Majeed, Nadyanna S.
  • March, David A.
  • Marsh, Abigail
  • Misiak, Michal
  • Myrseth, Kristian Ove R. M.
  • Napan, Jaime
  • Nicholas, Jonathan
  • Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos
  • Otterbring, Tobias
  • Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola
  • Pauer, Shiva
  • Protzko, John
  • Raffaelli, Quentin
  • Ropovik, Ivan
  • Ross, Robert M.
  • Roth, Yefim
  • Roysamb, Espen
  • Schnabel, Landon
  • Schuetz, Astrid
  • Seifert, Matthias
  • Sevincer, A. T.
  • Sherman, Garrick T.
  • Simonsson, Otto
  • Sung, Ming-Chien
  • Tai, Chung-Ching
  • Talhelm, Thomas
  • Teachman, Bethany A.
  • Tetlock, Philip E.
  • Thomakos, Dimitrios
  • Tse, Dwight C. K.
  • Twardus, Oliver J.
  • Tybur, Joshua M.
  • Ungar, Lyle
  • Vandermeulen, Daan
  • Vaughan Williams, Leighton
  • Vosgerichian, Hrag A.
  • Wang, Qi
  • Wang, Ke

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Whiting, Mark E.
  • Wollbrant, Conny E.
  • Yang, Tao
  • Yogeeswaran, Kumar
  • Yoon, Sangsuk
  • Alves, Ventura R.
  • Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R.
  • Bloom, Paul A.
  • Boyles, Anthony
  • Charis, Loo
  • Choi, Mingyeong
  • Darling-Hammond, Sean
  • Ferguson, Z. E.
  • Kaiser, Cheryl R.
  • Karg, Simon T.
  • Ortega, Alberto Lopez
  • Mahoney, Lori
  • Marsh, Melvin S.
  • Martinie, Marcellin F. R. C.
  • Michaels, Eli K.
  • Millroth, Philip
  • Naqvi, Jeanean B.
  • Ng, Weiting
  • Rutledge, Robb B.
  • Slattery, Peter
  • Smiley, Adam H.
  • Strijbis, Oliver
  • Sznycer, Daniel
  • Tsukayama, Eli
  • van Loon, Austin
  • Voelkel, Jan G.
  • Wienk, Margaux N. A.
  • Wilkening, Tom

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Grossmann, Igor & Rotella, Amanda A. & Hutcherson, Cendri & Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn & Varnum, Michael E. W. & Achter, Sebastian K. & Dhami, Mandeep & Guo, Xinqi Evie & Kara-Yakoubian, Mane R. & Mandel, 2023. "Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change," Other publications TiSEM c14f4a4a-b105-46b3-90f7-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:c14f4a4a-b105-46b3-90f7-fef031ea445e
    as

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    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/68512121/SP_Jaeger_insights_into_the_accuracy_NHB_2023.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Joseph Henrich & Steve J. Heine & Ara Norenzayan, 2010. "The Weirdest People in the World?," RatSWD Working Papers 139, German Data Forum (RatSWD).
    3. Voslinsky, Alisa & Azar, Ofer H., 2021. "Incentives in experimental economics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    5. Makridakis, Spyros & Taleb, Nassim, 2009. "Living in a world of low levels of predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 840-844, October.
    6. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
    7. Hans IJzerman & Neil A. Lewis & Andrew K. Przybylski & Netta Weinstein & Lisa DeBruine & Stuart J. Ritchie & Simine Vazire & Patrick S. Forscher & Richard D. Morey & James D. Ivory & Farid Anvari, 2020. "Use caution when applying behavioural science to policy," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1092-1094, November.
    8. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    9. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 54-74.
    10. Jake M. Hofman & Duncan J. Watts & Susan Athey & Filiz Garip & Thomas L. Griffiths & Jon Kleinberg & Helen Margetts & Sendhil Mullainathan & Matthew J. Salganik & Simine Vazire & Alessandro Vespignani, 2021. "Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7866), pages 181-188, July.
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