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Can the evolution of implied volatility be forecasted? Evidence from European and US implied volatility indices

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  1. R. L�pez & E. Navarro, 2013. "Interest rate and stock return volatility indices for the Eurozone. Investors' gauges of fear during the recent financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(18), pages 1419-1432, September.
  2. Cheng, Hung-Wen & Chang, Li-Han & Lo, Chien-Ling & Tsai, Jeffrey Tzuhao, 2023. "Empirical performance of component GARCH models in pricing VIX term structure and VIX futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 122-142.
  3. Kearney, Fearghal & Shang, Han Lin & Sheenan, Lisa, 2019. "Implied volatility surface predictability: The case of commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  4. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Charalambous, Chris & Martzoukos, Spiros H., 2010. "Generalized parameter functions for option pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 633-646, March.
  5. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1175-1188, June.
  6. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2016. "International stock market cointegration under the risk-neutral measure," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 243-255.
  7. Dunis, Christian & Kellard, Neil M. & Snaith, Stuart, 2013. "Forecasting EUR–USD implied volatility: The case of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4943-4957.
  8. Costas Siriopoulos & Athanasios Fassas, 2013. "Dynamic relations of uncertainty expectations: a conditional assessment of implied volatility indices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 233-266, October.
  9. López, Raquel, 2015. "Do stylized facts of equity-based volatility indices apply to fixed-income volatility indices? Evidence from the US Treasury market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 292-303.
  10. Sevillano, María Caridad & Jareño, Francisco & López, Raquel & Esparcia, Carlos, 2024. "Connectedness between oil price shocks and US sector returns: Evidence from TVP-VAR and wavelet decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  11. Jędrzej Białkowski & Huong Dieu Dang & Xiaopeng Wei, 2017. "Does the Tail Wag the Dog? Evidence from Fund Flow to VIX ETFs and ETNs," Working Papers in Economics 17/17, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  12. João Henrique G. Mazzeu & Gloria González-Rivera & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2020. "A bootstrap approach for generalized Autocontour testing Implications for VIX forecast densities," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 971-990, November.
  13. Shang, Han Lin & Kearney, Fearghal, 2022. "Dynamic functional time-series forecasts of foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1025-1049.
  14. Chang, Chuang-Chang & Hsieh, Pei-Fang & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2010. "Information content of options trading volume for future volatility: Evidence from the Taiwan options market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 174-183, January.
  15. Angelos Kanas, 2013. "The risk-return relation and VIX: evidence from the S&P 500," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1291-1314, June.
  16. Raushan Kumar, 2021. "Predicting Wheat Futures Prices in India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(1), pages 121-140, March.
  17. Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.
  18. Kellard, Neil & Dunis, Christian & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2010. "Foreign exchange, fractional cointegration and the implied-realized volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891, April.
  19. Romuald N. Kenmoe S & Carine D. Tafou, 2014. "The Implied Volatility Analysis: The South African Experience," Papers 1403.5965, arXiv.org.
  20. Yanhui Chen & Kin Lai & Jiangze Du, 2014. "Modeling and forecasting Hang Seng index volatility with day-of-week effect, spillover effect based on ARIMA and HAR," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(2), pages 113-132, December.
  21. Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo & Guizzardi, Andrea & Palladini, Fabio, 2019. "Forecasting and trading on the VIX futures market: A neural network approach based on open to close returns and coincident indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1250-1262.
  22. Fernandes, Marcelo & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Scharth, Marcel, 2014. "Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-10.
  23. Guo, Biao & Han, Qian & Lin, Hai, 2015. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities," Working Paper Series 20148, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  24. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Leverage vs. feedback: Which Effect drives the oil market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 131-141.
  25. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 326-342.
  26. Cao, Yi & Liu, Xiaoquan & Zhai, Jia, 2021. "Option valuation under no-arbitrage constraints with neural networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(1), pages 361-374.
  27. Kanas, Angelos, 2012. "Modelling the risk–return relation for the S&P 100: The role of VIX," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 795-809.
  28. Le, Van & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2014. "Forecasting option smile dynamics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 32-45.
  29. Nave, Juan M. & Ruiz, Javier, 2015. "Risk aversion and monetary policy in a global context," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 14-35.
  30. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2011. "How important is the term structure in implied volatility surface modeling? Evidence from foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 623-640, June.
  31. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2012. "Exploring the role of the realized return distribution in the formation of the implied volatility smile," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1028-1044.
  32. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
  33. Michel van der Wel & Sait R. Ozturk & Dick van Dijk, 2015. "Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface," CREATES Research Papers 2015-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  34. Han Lin Shang & Yang Yang & Fearghal Kearney, 2019. "Intraday forecasts of a volatility index: functional time series methods with dynamic updating," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 331-354, November.
  35. Byung Yeon Kim & Heejoon Han, 2022. "Multi-Step-Ahead Forecasting of the CBOE Volatility Index in a Data-Rich Environment: Application of Random Forest with Boruta Algorithm," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 38, pages 541-569.
  36. Taylor, Nick, 2019. "Forecasting returns in the VIX futures market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1193-1210.
  37. Yuru Sun & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M. Martin, 2023. "Optimal probabilistic forecasts for risk management," Papers 2303.01651, arXiv.org.
  38. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Jose Arreola-Hernandez & David Roubaud & Stelios Bekiros, 2019. "Spillover across Eurozone credit market sectors and determinants," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(59), pages 6333-6349, December.
  39. Michael C. Nwogugu, 2020. "Decision-Making, Sub-Additive Recursive "Matching" Noise And Biases In Risk-Weighted Stock/Bond Index Calculation Methods In Incomplete Markets With Partially Observable Multi-Attribute Pref," Papers 2005.01708, arXiv.org.
  40. Parhizgari, A.M. & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, 2021. "Global equity market leadership positions through implied volatility measures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 180-205.
  41. Vrugt, Evert B., 2009. "U.S. and Japanese macroeconomic news and stock market volatility in Asia-Pacific," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 611-627, November.
  42. Le, Van & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2010. "The role of trading volume in volatility forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 533-555, December.
  43. Andreas Kaeck & Carol Alexander, 2010. "VIX Dynamics with Stochastic Volatility of Volatility," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2010-11, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  44. Panagiotis Delis & Stavros Degiannakis & Konstantinos Giannopoulos, 2023. "What Should be Taken into Consideration when Forecasting Oil Implied Volatility Index?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(5), pages 231-250, September.
  45. Song, Wonho & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2016. "Overseas market shocks and VKOSPI dynamics: A Markov-switching approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 275-282.
  46. Gonzalez-Perez, Maria T., 2015. "Model-free volatility indexes in the financial literature: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 141-159.
  47. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
  48. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Are the KOSPI 200 implied volatilities useful in value-at-risk models?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 43-64.
  49. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
  50. Markopoulou, Chryssa & Skintzi, Vasiliki & Refenes, Apostolos, 2016. "On the predictability of model-free implied correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 527-547.
  51. Taylor, Stephen J. & Yadav, Pradeep K. & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2010. "The information content of implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations: Evidence from options written on individual stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 871-881, April.
  52. Shengli Chen & Zili Zhang, 2019. "Forecasting Implied Volatility Smile Surface via Deep Learning and Attention Mechanism," Papers 1912.11059, arXiv.org.
  53. Massimo Guidolin & Giulia F. Panzeri, 2024. "Forecasting the CBOE VIX and SKEW Indices Using Heterogeneous Autoregressive Models," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-33, September.
  54. Siriopoulos, Costas & Fassas, Athanasios, 2012. "An investor sentiment barometer — Greek Implied Volatility Index (GRIV)," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 77-93.
  55. Imlak Shaikh & Puja Padhi, 2014. "The forecasting performance of implied volatility index: evidence from India VIX," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 251-274, November.
  56. Psaradellis, Ioannis & Sermpinis, Georgios, 2016. "Modelling and trading the U.S. implied volatility indices. Evidence from the VIX, VXN and VXD indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1268-1283.
  57. Biao Guo & Qian Han & Hai Lin, 2018. "Are there gains from using information over the surface of implied volatilities?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 645-672, June.
  58. Juan M. Londono, 2011. "The variance risk premium around the world," International Finance Discussion Papers 1035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  59. Chen, An-Sing & Chang, Hung-Chou & Cheng, Lee-Young, 2019. "Time-varying Variance Scaling: Application of the Fractionally Integrated ARMA Model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-12.
  60. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Are VIX futures prices predictable? An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 543-560.
  61. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou & Natasa Todorovic, 2015. "Daily volume, intraday and overnight returns for volatility prediction: profitability or accuracy?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 251-278, August.
  62. Carol Alexander & Julia Kapraun & Dimitris Korovilas, 2015. "Trading and Investing in Volatility Products," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 313-347, November.
  63. Eirini Konstantinidi & Gkaren Papazian & George Skiadopoulos, 2015. "Modeling the Dynamics of Temperature with a View to Weather Derivatives," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 17, pages 511-544, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  64. Han, Heejoon & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Effects of the US stock market return and volatility on the VKOSPI," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-34.
  65. Kaeck, Andreas & Alexander, Carol, 2013. "Continuous-time VIX dynamics: On the role of stochastic volatility of volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 46-56.
  66. Han, Heejoon & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Modeling and predicting the market volatility index: The case of VKOSPI," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  67. Guidolin, Massimo & Wang, Kai, 2023. "The empirical performance of option implied volatility surface-driven optimal portfolios," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
  68. Bedendo, Mascia & Hodges, Stewart D., 2009. "The dynamics of the volatility skew: A Kalman filter approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1156-1165, June.
  69. Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2014. "On financial contagion and implied market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 21-30.
  70. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2015. "Learning to smile: Can rational learning explain predictable dynamics in the implied volatility surface?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-37.
  71. Goulas, Lambros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Are freight futures markets efficient? Evidence from IMAREX," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 644-659.
  72. Jiang, George J. & Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Volatility spillovers and the effect of news announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2260-2273.
  73. Wen, Conghua & Zhai, Jia & Wang, Yinuo & Cao, Yi, 2024. "Implied volatility is (almost) past-dependent: Linear vs non-linear models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
  74. Pham, Linh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Green bonds and implied volatilities: Dynamic causality, spillovers, and implications for portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  75. Jiang, George J. & Tian, Yisong S., 2010. "Misreaction or misspecification? A re-examination of volatility anomalies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2358-2369, October.
  76. Tran, Vu & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2014. "Sovereign rating actions and the implied volatility of stock index options," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 101-113.
  77. Guo, Biao & Han, Qian & Lin, Hai, 2015. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities," Working Paper Series 6189, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  78. Huang, Hong-Gia & Tsai, Wei-Che & Weng, Pei-Shih & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2023. "Intraday momentum in the VIX futures market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
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