IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2005.01708.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Decision-Making, Sub-Additive Recursive "Matching" Noise And Biases In Risk-Weighted Stock/Bond Index Calculation Methods In Incomplete Markets With Partially Observable Multi-Attribute Preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Michael C. Nwogugu

Abstract

While Indices, Index tracking funds and ETFs have grown in popularity during then last ten years, there are many structural problems inherent in Index calculation methodologies and the legal/economic structure of ETFs. These problems raise actionable issues of Suitability and fraud under US securities laws, because most Indices and ETFs are misleading, have substantial tracking errors and dont reflect what they are supposed to track. This article contributes to the existing literature by: a) introducing and characterizing the errors and Biases inherent in risk-adjusted index weighting methods and the associated adverse effects; b) showing how these biases/effects inherent in Index calculation methods reduce social welfare, and can form the basis for harmful arbitrage activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael C. Nwogugu, 2020. "Decision-Making, Sub-Additive Recursive "Matching" Noise And Biases In Risk-Weighted Stock/Bond Index Calculation Methods In Incomplete Markets With Partially Observable Multi-Attribute Pref," Papers 2005.01708, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2005.01708
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.01708
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neely, Christopher J., 2009. "Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 188-205, February.
    2. Guobin Fan & Yong Zeng, 2012. "The Timing Of Portfolio Adjustments: A Regime-Switching Approach," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 909-933.
    3. Sjur Flåm, 2010. "Portfolio management without probabilities or statistics," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 357-368, July.
    4. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2006. "The conditional CAPM does not explain asset-pricing anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-314, November.
    5. Deng-Feng Li, 2009. "Relative Ratio Method For Multiple Attribute Decision Making Problems," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 289-311.
    6. Robert J. Aumann & Roberto Serrano, 2008. "An Economic Index of Riskiness," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(5), pages 810-836, October.
    7. Marshall Blume & Robert Stambaugh, "undated". "Biases in Computed Returns: An Application to the Size Effect (Revision of 2-83)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-83, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    8. Hiroshi Takahashi, 2012. "An Analysis Of The Influence Of Dispersion Of Valuations On Financial Markets Through Agent-Based Modeling," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 143-166.
    9. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
    10. Green, Richard C & Hollifield, Burton, 1992. "When Will Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolios Be Well Diversified?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1785-1809, December.
    11. Kim, Jinill & Kim, Sunghyun Henry & Levin, Andrew, 2003. "Patience, persistence, and welfare costs of incomplete markets in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 385-396, December.
    12. Keim, Donald B., 1999. "An analysis of mutual fund design: the case of investing in small-cap stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 173-194, February.
    13. Klibanoff, Peter & Marinacci, Massimo & Mukerji, Sujoy, 2009. "Recursive smooth ambiguity preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 930-976, May.
    14. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(3), pages 343-357, October.
    15. Blume, Marshall E. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1983. "Biases in computed returns : An application to the size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 387-404, November.
    16. Joanne Mar & Ron Bird & Lorenzo Casavecchia & Danny Yeung, 2009. "Fundamental Indexation: An Australian Investigation," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 34(1), pages 1-20, June.
    17. Anne Epaulard & Aude Pommeret, 2003. "Recursive Utility, Endogenous Growth, and the Welfare Cost of Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(3), pages 672-684, July.
    18. Tofallis, Chris, 2008. "Investment volatility: A critique of standard beta estimation and a simple way forward," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(3), pages 1358-1367, June.
    19. Louis K.C. Chan & Jason Karceski & Josef Lakonishok, 1999. "On Portfolio Optimization: Forecasting Covariances and Choosing the Risk Model," NBER Working Papers 7039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ting-Yu Chen, 2012. "Nonlinear Assignment-Based Methods For Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis With Incomplete Preference Information," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(04), pages 821-855.
    21. Nicole M. Aulerich & Raymond P. H. Fishe & Jeffrey H. Harris, 2011. "Why do expiring futures and cash prices diverge for grain markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 503-533, June.
    22. Lorenzo Garlappi & Tao Shu & Hong Yan, 2008. "Default Risk, Shareholder Advantage, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2743-2778, November.
    23. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
    24. Philip Gharghori & Howard Chan & Robert Faff, 2007. "Are the Fama-French Factors Proxying Default Risk?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(2), pages 223-249, December.
    25. Caves, Douglas W & Christensen, Laurits R & Diewert, W Erwin, 1982. "The Economic Theory of Index Numbers and the Measurement of Input, Output, and Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1393-1414, November.
    26. Todd Prono, 2009. "Market proxies, correlation, and relative mean-variance efficiency: still living with the roll critique," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers QAU09-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    27. Gregor Dorfleitner, 2003. "Why The Return Notion Matters," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 73-86.
    28. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:261-288 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Hui Guo, 2004. "A rational pricing explanation for the failure of CAPM," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(May), pages 23-34.
    30. Joyce, Jon M & Vogel, Robert C, 1970. "The Uncertainty in Risk: Is Variance Unambiguous?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 127-134, March.
    31. Gong-Bing Bi & Jing-Jing Ding & Yan Luo & Liang Liang, 2011. "A New Malmquist Productivity Index Based On Semi-Discretionary Variables With An Application To Commercial Banks Of China," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 713-730.
    32. Zhi-Xin Su, 2011. "A Hybrid Fuzzy Approach To Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Group Decision-Making," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 695-711.
    33. Danielsson, Jon & Jorgensen, Bjorn N. & Sarma, Mandira & de Vries, Casper G., 2006. "Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed distributions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 202-208, August.
    34. Michael Nwogugu, 2005. "Towards multi-factor models of decision making and risk: A critique of Prospect Theory and related approaches, part I," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 150-162, March.
    35. Todd Prono, 2006. "GARCH-based identification of triangular systems with an application to the CAPM: still living with the roll critique," Working Papers 07-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    36. Thomas Klitgaard & Laura Weir, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and net positions of speculators in the futures market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 17-28.
    37. Lionel Martellini & Branko Uroševi'{c}, 2006. "Static Mean-Variance Analysis with Uncertain Time Horizon," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(6), pages 955-964, June.
    38. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Are VIX futures prices predictable? An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 543-560.
    39. Alex Frino & David R. Gallagher & Teddy N. Oetomo, 2005. "The Index Tracking Strategies of Passive and Enhanced Index Equity Funds," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 30(1), pages 23-55, June.
    40. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, May.
    41. Tzang, Shyh-Weir & Hung, Chih-Hsing & Wang, Chou-Wen & Shyu, David So-De, 2011. "Do liquidity and sampling methods matter in constructing volatility indices? Empirical evidence from Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 312-324, April.
    42. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George & Tzagkaraki, Emilia, 2008. "Can the evolution of implied volatility be forecasted? Evidence from European and US implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2401-2411, November.
    43. Berger, Dave & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2012. "Market fragility and international market crashes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 565-580.
    44. Diewert, Erwin, 2009. "Cost of Living Indexes and Exact Index Numbers," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2009-6, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 13 Feb 2009.
    45. Chan, Louis K C & Karceski, Jason & Lakonishok, Josef, 1999. "On Portfolio Optimization: Forecasting Covariances and Choosing the Risk Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 937-974.
    46. Chng, Michael T., 2004. "The trading dynamics of close-substitute futures markets: evidence of margin policy spillover effects," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4-5), pages 463-483.
    47. Kroll, Yoram & Levy, Haim & Markowitz, Harry M, 1984. "Mean-Variance versus Direct Utility Maximization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 47-61, March.
    48. Berk, Jonathan B, 1995. "A Critique of Size-Related Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 275-286.
    49. Michael Nwogugu, 2005. "Towards multi-factor models of decision making and risk: A critique of Prospect Theory and related approaches, part II," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 163-173, March.
    50. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1993. "Long-Term Market Overreaction or Biases in Computed Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 39-63, March.
    51. Raghbendra Jha & K.V. Bhanu Murthy, 2003. "A Critique of the Environmental Sustainability Index," Departmental Working Papers 2003-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    52. Michael Nwogugu, 2005. "Towards multi-factor models of decision making and risk: A critique of Prospect Theory and related approaches, part III," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 267-274, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Nwogugu, 2020. "Regret Theory And Asset Pricing Anomalies In Incomplete Markets With Dynamic Un-Aggregated Preferences," Papers 2005.01709, arXiv.org.
    2. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2010. "The Cross†Section of Expected Stock Returns: What Have We Learnt from the Past Twenty†Five Years of Research?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 27-42, January.
    3. Kevin Aretz & Marc Aretz, 2016. "Which stocks drive the size, value, and momentum anomalies and for how long? Evidence from a statistical leverage analysis," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(1), pages 19-61, February.
    4. Gilbert, Thomas & Hrdlicka, Christopher & Kamara, Avraham, 2018. "The structure of information release and the factor structure of returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 546-566.
    5. Kellerer, Belinda, 2019. "Portfolio Optimization and Ambiguity Aversion," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 4(3), pages 305-338.
    6. Malamud, Semyon & Vilkov, Grigory, 2018. "Non-myopic betas," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 357-381.
    7. Mishra, Anil V., 2016. "Foreign bias in Australian-domiciled mutual fund holdings," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 101-123.
    8. Wolfgang Aussenegg & Andreas Grünbichler, 1999. "Der Size-Effekt am Österreichischen Aktienmarkt," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 51(7), pages 636-661, July.
    9. Seyoung Park & Eun Ryung Lee & Sungchul Lee & Geonwoo Kim, 2019. "Dantzig Type Optimization Method with Applications to Portfolio Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-32, June.
    10. Praveen Kumar Das & S P Uma Rao, 2011. "Value Premiums And The January Effect: International Evidence," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15.
    11. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    12. Sujoy Mukerji & Han N. Ozsoylev & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2023. "Trading Ambiguity: A Tale Of Two Heterogeneities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1127-1164, August.
    13. Louis K. C. Chan & Stephen G. Dimmock & Josef Lakonishok, 2009. "Benchmarking Money Manager Performance: Issues and Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4553-4599, November.
    14. Füss, Roland & Miebs, Felix & Trübenbach, Fabian, 2014. "A jackknife-type estimator for portfolio revision," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 14-28.
    15. Philip Brown & Raymond da Silva Rosa, 1998. "Research Method and the Long†Run Perfor Mance of Acquiring Firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 23(1), pages 23-38, June.
    16. MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1995. "Multifactor models do not explain deviations from the CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 3-28, May.
    17. Christoph Schmidhammer & Sebastian Lobe & Klaus Röder, 2016. "The day the index rose 11 %: a clinical study on price discovery reversal," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 79-106, January.
    18. Mishra, Anil V., 2015. "Measures of equity home bias puzzle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-312.
    19. M. Reza Bradrania & Maurice Peat & Stephen Satchell, 2022. "Liquidity Costs, Idiosyncratic Volatility and Expected Stock Returns," Papers 2211.04695, arXiv.org.
    20. Barber, Brad M. & Lyon, John D., 1997. "Detecting long-run abnormal stock returns: The empirical power and specification of test statistics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 341-372, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2005.01708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.