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International stock market cointegration under the risk-neutral measure

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  • Gagnon, Marie-Hélène
  • Power, Gabriel J.
  • Toupin, Dominique

Abstract

This paper investigates international cointegration and financial integration among equity market indexes using index option data, providing an ex-ante analysis through investor anticipations. Daily time series of risk-neutral variance, skewness, and kurtosis are constructed for five major indexes for three sub-periods between 2003 and 2013. Fractionally cointegrated VAR models are estimated at the international level, accounting for persistence in risk-neutral moments. Our results show that there exist international equilibria in risk-neutral moments defined by several cointegrating vectors. During the 2007–2009 global crisis period, these equilibria are characterized by an increase in persistence and in the speeds of adjustment. Moreover, for risk-neutral variance and skewness, all markets are included in the equilibria and none are weakly exogenous. Outside the global crisis period, the cointegration relationship is more fragmented, especially for higher-order moments. In particular, crash and tail risks are segmented during the European debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2016. "International stock market cointegration under the risk-neutral measure," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 243-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:47:y:2016:i:c:p:243-255
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.08.002
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    1. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2023. "The sum of all fears: Forecasting international returns using option-implied risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Yao, Xingzhi & Izzeldin, Marwan & Li, Zhenxiong, 2019. "A novel cluster HAR-type model for forecasting realized volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1318-1331.
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    4. Hazar Altinbas, 2020. "Examining Time-Varying Integrity And Interrelationships Among Global Stock Markets," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, June.
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    6. José Carlos Vides & Antonio A. Golpe & Jesús Iglesias, 2018. "How did the Sovereign debt crisis affect the Euro financial integration? A fractional cointegration approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 685-706, November.
    7. Dimitrios Vortelinos & Konstantinos Gkillas (Gillas) & Costas Syriopoulos & Argyro Svingou, 2017. "Asymmetric and nonlinear inter-relations of US stock indices," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(1), pages 78-129, December.

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