IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v16y2016icp275-282.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Overseas market shocks and VKOSPI dynamics: A Markov-switching approach

Author

Listed:
  • Song, Wonho
  • Ryu, Doojin
  • Webb, Robert I.

Abstract

Using a three-regime Markov-switching framework, with time-varying transition probabilities and exogenous state variables, we find that overseas (US) market factors are more significant than domestic (Korean) factors in explaining VKOSPI dynamics. US financial variables are also more important than domestic variables in modeling time-varying transition probabilities, particularly during crisis periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Song, Wonho & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2016. "Overseas market shocks and VKOSPI dynamics: A Markov-switching approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 275-282.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:16:y:2016:i:c:p:275-282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2015.12.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612315001397
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2015.12.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Perez‐Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, June.
    2. Fernandes, Marcelo & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Scharth, Marcel, 2014. "Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Are the KOSPI 200 implied volatilities useful in value-at-risk models?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 43-64.
    4. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    5. Han, Heejoon & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Effects of the US stock market return and volatility on the VKOSPI," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-34.
    6. Hee‐Joon Ahn & Jangkoo Kang & Doojin Ryu, 2008. "Informed trading in the index option market: The case of KOSPI 200 options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(12), pages 1118-1146, December.
    7. Lee, Bong Soo & Ryu, Doojin, 2013. "Stock returns and implied volatility: A new VAR approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-20.
    8. Luo, Xingguo & Ye, Zinan, 2015. "Predicting volatility of the Shanghai silver futures market: What is the role of the U.S. options market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 68-77.
    9. Doojin Ryu, 2015. "The Information Content of Trades: An Analysis of KOSPI 200 Index Derivatives," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(3), pages 201-221, March.
    10. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George & Tzagkaraki, Emilia, 2008. "Can the evolution of implied volatility be forecasted? Evidence from European and US implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2401-2411, November.
    11. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    12. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    13. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
    14. N. Baba & Y. Sakurai, 2011. "Predicting regime switches in the VIX index with macroeconomic variables," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1415-1419.
    15. Smith, Aaron & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2006. "Markov-switching model selection using Kullback-Leibler divergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 553-577, October.
    16. Smales, Lee A., 2014. "News sentiment and the investor fear gauge," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 122-130.
    17. Doojin Ryu, 2011. "Intraday price formation and bid–ask spread components: A new approach using a cross‐market model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(12), pages 1142-1169, December.
    18. Onan, Mustafa & Salih, Aslihan & Yasar, Burze, 2014. "Impact of macroeconomic announcements on implied volatility slope of SPX options and VIX," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 454-462.
    19. Doojin Ryu, 2012. "Implied Volatility Index of KOSPI200: Information Contents and Properties," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 24-39, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Han, Heejoon & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Modeling and predicting the market volatility index: The case of VKOSPI," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Han, Heejoon & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Effects of the US stock market return and volatility on the VKOSPI," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-34.
    3. Doojin RYU & Hyein SHIM, 2017. "Intraday Dynamics of Asset Returns, Trading Activities, and Implied Volatilities: A Trivariate GARCH Framework," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 45-61, June.
    4. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    5. Park, Sung Y. & Ryu, Doojin & Song, Jeongseok, 2017. "The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 638-648.
    6. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Forecasting the KOSPI200 spot volatility using various volatility measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 156-166.
    7. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Are the KOSPI 200 implied volatilities useful in value-at-risk models?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 43-64.
    8. Yang, Heejin & Ahn, Hee-Joon & Kim, Maria H. & Ryu, Doojin, 2017. "Information asymmetry and investor trading behavior around bond rating change announcements," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 38-51.
    9. Yang, Heejin & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Volatility information trading in the index options market: An intraday analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 412-426.
    10. Chune Young Chung & Doojin Ryu & Kainan Wang & Blerina Bela Zykaj, 2018. "Optionable Stocks and Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 390-412, March.
    11. Jung Park, Yuen & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "The impacts of overseas market shocks on the CDS-option basis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 622-636.
    12. Lee, Jaeram & Lee, Geul & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "Difference in the intraday return-volume relationships of spots and futures: A quantile regression approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-68, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Jieun Lee & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "The impacts of public news announcements on intraday implied volatility dynamics," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 656-685, June.
    14. Doojin Ryu & Doowon Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2021. "The impact of net buying pressure on index options prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 27-45, January.
    15. Daehyeon Park & Jiyeon Park & Doojin Ryu, 2020. "Volatility Spillovers between Equity and Green Bond Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, May.
    16. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1999, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    17. Webb, Robert I. & Ryu, Doojin & Ryu, Doowon & Han, Joongho, 2016. "The price impact of futures trades and their intraday seasonality," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 80-98.
    18. Lee, Jieun & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "How does FX liquidity affect the relationship between foreign ownership and stock liquidity?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 101-119.
    19. Doojin Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2018. "The directional information content of options volumes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1533-1548, December.
    20. Lee, Jaeram & Kang, Jangkoo & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Common deviation and regime-dependent dynamics in the index derivatives markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-22.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov-switching; VKOSPI; VIX; Korea; US;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:16:y:2016:i:c:p:275-282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.