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The hidden dangers of historical simulation

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Cited by:

  1. Chan, Ngai Hang & Sit, Tony, 2016. "Artifactual unit root behavior of Value at risk (VaR)," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-93.
  2. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2009. "Are interest rate options important for the assessment of interest rate risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1376-1387, August.
  3. Meng, Xiaochun & Taylor, James W., 2018. "An approximate long-memory range-based approach for value at risk estimation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 377-388.
  4. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Müller, Fernanda Maria & Moresco, Marlon Ruoso, 2020. "On a robust risk measurement approach for capital determination errors minimization," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 199-211.
  5. Cotter, John, 2007. "Varying the VaR for unconditional and conditional environments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1338-1354, December.
  6. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
  7. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista, 2017. "Bank Capital Regulation of Trading Portfolios: An Assessment of the Basel Framework," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 603-634, June.
  8. Jean-Paul Laurent & Hassan Omidi Firouzi, 2022. "Market Risk and Volatility Weighted Historical Simulation After Basel III," Working Papers hal-03679434, HAL.
  9. Fernanda Maria Müller & Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2024. "Comparison of Value at Risk (VaR) Multivariate Forecast Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(1), pages 75-110, January.
  10. Chlebus Marcin, 2017. "EWS-GARCH: New Regime Switching Approach to Forecast Value-at-Risk," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 3(50), pages 01-25, December.
  11. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2012. "Bank regulation and stability: An examination of the Basel market risk framework," Discussion Papers 09/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  12. Chrétien, Stéphane & Coggins, Frank, 2010. "Performance and conservatism of monthly FHS VaR: An international investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 323-333, December.
  13. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2013. "A comparison of the original and revised Basel market risk frameworks for regulating bank capital," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 249-268.
  14. Shaozhen Chen & Bangqian Zhang & Jinjin Deng, 2018. "Research on Risk Measurement in Financial Market Based on GARCH-VaR and FHS¡ª¡ªAn Example of Chinese Bond Market," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 102-116, July.
  15. Alejandro Bernales & Diether W. Beuermann & Gonzalo Cortazar, 2014. "Thinly traded securities and risk management," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1 Year 20), pages 5-48, June.
  16. Ledermann, Daniel & Alexander, Carol, 2012. "Further properties of random orthogonal matrix simulation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 56-79.
  17. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
  18. Benjamin R. Auer & Benjamin Mögel, 2016. "How Accurate are Modern Value-at-Risk Estimators Derived from Extreme Value Theory?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6288, CESifo.
  19. Carol Alexander & Jose Maria Sarabia, 2010. "Endogenizing Model Risk to Quantile Estimates," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2010-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  20. Frésard, Laurent & Pérignon, Christophe & Wilhelmsson, Anders, 2011. "The pernicious effects of contaminated data in risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2569-2583, October.
  21. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2012. "When more is less: Using multiple constraints to reduce tail risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2693-2716.
  22. El Bouhadi, Abdelhamid & Achibane, Khalid, 2009. "The Predictive Power of Conditional Models: What Lessons to Draw with Financial Crisis in the Case of Pre-Emerging Capital Markets?," MPRA Paper 19482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. O’Brien, James & Szerszeń, Paweł J., 2017. "An evaluation of bank measures for market risk before, during and after the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 215-234.
  24. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista & Shu Yan, 2009. "Reducing estimation risk in optimal portfolio selection when short sales are allowed," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 281-305.
  25. Aramonte, Sirio & Giudice Rodriguez, Marius del & Wu, Jason, 2013. "Dynamic factor Value-at-Risk for large heteroskedastic portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4299-4309.
  26. Ales Kresta & Tomas Tichy, 2012. "International Equity Portfolio Risk Modeling: The Case of the NIG Model and Ordinary Copula Functions," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(2), pages 141-161, May.
  27. Karagiannidis, Iordanis & Sykes Wilford, D., 2015. "Modeling fund and portfolio risk: A bi-modal approach to analyzing risk in turbulent markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 19-26.
  28. Pérignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2010. "The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 362-377, February.
  29. Cheng, Wan-Hsiu & Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2011. "Skewness and leptokurtosis in GARCH-typed VaR estimation of petroleum and metal asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 160-173, January.
  30. Katerina Rigana & Ernst C. Wit & Samantha Cook, 2024. "Navigating Market Turbulence: Insights from Causal Network Contagion Value at Risk," Papers 2402.06032, arXiv.org.
  31. Alexander N. Bogin & Nataliya Polkovnichenko & William M. Doerner, 2015. "Additional Market Risk Shocks: Prepayment Uncertainty and Option-Adjusted Spreads," FHFA Staff Working Papers 15-03, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
  32. Borut Jereb, 2013. "Risk Assessment Model Respecting Segments Of The Public," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 9(3), pages 75-94.
  33. Pérignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2010. "Diversification and Value-at-Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 55-66, January.
  34. Michele Leonardo Bianchi, 2023. "Assessing and forecasting the market risk of bank securities holdings: a data-driven approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 1-23, December.
  35. Benjamin Mögel & Benjamin R. Auer, 2018. "How accurate are modern Value-at-Risk estimators derived from extreme value theory?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 979-1030, May.
  36. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "First-passage probability, jump models, and intra-horizon risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 20-40, January.
  37. Siburg, Karl Friedrich & Stoimenov, Pavel & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2015. "Forecasting portfolio-Value-at-Risk with nonparametric lower tail dependence estimates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 129-140.
  38. Giannopoulos, Kostas, 2008. "Nonparametric, conditional pricing of higher order multivariate contingent claims," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1907-1915, September.
  39. Juan Ignacio Pe~na & Rosa Rodriguez & Silvia Mayoral, 2022. "Tail Risk of Electricity Futures," Papers 2202.01732, arXiv.org.
  40. James M. O'Brien & Pawel J. Szerszen, 2014. "An Evaluation of Bank VaR Measures for Market Risk During and Before the Financial Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  41. Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2010. "Heavy-tailed distributions in VaR calculations," HSC Research Reports HSC/10/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  42. Fries, Christian P. & Nigbur, Tobias & Seeger, Norman, 2017. "Displaced relative changes in historical simulation: Application to risk measures of interest rates with phases of negative rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 175-198.
  43. Carol Alexander & José María Sarabia, 2012. "Quantile Uncertainty and Value‐at‐Risk Model Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(8), pages 1293-1308, August.
  44. Fernanda Maria Müller & Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2018. "Numerical comparison of multivariate models to forecasting risk measures," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 29-50, February.
  45. Apergis, Emmanuel & Apergis, Iraklis & Apergis, Nicholas, 2019. "A new macro stress testing approach for financial realignment in the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 52-80.
  46. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Paulo Sergio Ceretta, 2015. "Shortfall Deviation Risk: An alternative to risk measurement," Papers 1501.02007, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
  47. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista & Shu Yan, 2015. "On Regulatory Responses to the Recent Crisis: An Assessment of the Basel Market Risk Framework and the Volcker Rule," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(2-3), pages 87-125, May.
  48. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2014. "Bank regulation and international financial stability: A case against the 2006 Basel framework for controlling tail risk in trading books," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 107-130.
  49. David Happersberger & Harald Lohre & Ingmar Nolte, 2020. "Estimating portfolio risk for tail risk protection strategies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1107-1146, September.
  50. Basu, Sanjay, 2011. "Comparing simulation models for market risk stress testing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 329-339, August.
  51. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Pei, Pei, 2012. "Pitfalls in backtesting Historical Simulation VaR models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2233-2244.
  52. Anja Vinzelberg & Benjamin R. Auer, 2022. "Unprofitability of food market investments," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2887-2910, October.
  53. Shiva Zamani & Alireza Moslemi Haghighi & Hamid Arian, 2023. "Temporal Volatility Surface Projection: Parametric Surface Projection Method for Derivatives Portfolio Risk Management," Papers 2311.14985, arXiv.org.
  54. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Pei, Pei, 2012. "Pitfalls in backtesting Historical Simulation VaR models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2233-2244.
  55. Pablo Farías, 2014. "Divulgación del valor en riesgo (VaR) previo a la crisis en el sector bancario espanol," Revista Ad-Minister, Universidad EAFIT, July.
  56. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2015. "A comparison of Expected Shortfall estimation models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 14-47.
  57. Alexander, Carol & Sheedy, Elizabeth, 2008. "Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2220-2236, October.
  58. Peña, Juan Ignacio & Rodríguez, Rosa & Mayoral, Silvia, 2020. "Tail risk of electricity futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  59. Po-Cheng Wu & Cheng-Kun Kuo & Chih-Wei Lee, 2012. "Evaluation Of Multi-Asset Value At Risk: Evidence From Taiwan," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(4), pages 23-34.
  60. Marcin Łupiński, 2013. "Comparison of Alternative Approaches to VaR Evaluation," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 33.
  61. Dias, Alexandra, 2013. "Market capitalization and Value-at-Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5248-5260.
  62. Pritsker, Matt, 2019. "An overview of regulatory stress-testing and steps to improve it," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 39-43.
  63. Vladimir Rankovic & Mikica Drenovak & Branko Uroševic & Ranko Jelic, 2016. "Mean Univariate-GARCH VaR Portfolio Optimization: Actual Portfolio Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5731, CESifo.
  64. Thor Pajhede, 2015. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Generalized Markov Framework," Discussion Papers 15-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  65. Jolanta Tamošaitienė & Vahidreza Yousefi & Hamed Tabasi, 2021. "Project Portfolio Construction Using Extreme Value Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, January.
  66. Ilhami KARAHANOGLU, 2020. "The VaR comparison of the fresh investment toolBITCOIN with other conventional investment tools, gold, stock exchange (BIST100) and foreign currencies (EUR/USD VS TRL)," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 160-181, December.
  67. Ibrahim Ergen, 2015. "Two-step methods in VaR prediction and the importance of fat tails," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 1013-1030, June.
  68. Ranković, Vladimir & Ivanović, Miloš & Urošević, Branko & Jelic, Ranko, 2017. "Market risk management in a post-Basel II regulatory environmentAuthor-Name: Drenovak, Mikica," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(3), pages 1030-1044.
  69. Colletaz, Gilbert & Hurlin, Christophe & Pérignon, Christophe, 2013. "The Risk Map: A new tool for validating risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3843-3854.
  70. Danai Likitratcharoen & Pan Chudasring & Chakrin Pinmanee & Karawan Wiwattanalamphong, 2023. "The Efficiency of Value-at-Risk Models during Extreme Market Stress in Cryptocurrencies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
  71. Ian Laker & Chun-Kai Huang & Allan Ernest Clark, 2017. "Dependent bootstrapping for value-at-risk and expected shortfall," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(4), pages 301-322, November.
  72. Gregor Weiß, 2013. "Copula-GARCH versus dynamic conditional correlation: an empirical study on VaR and ES forecasting accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 179-202, August.
  73. Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2011. "Are Copula-GoF-tests of any practical use? Empirical evidence for stocks, commodities and FX futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 173-188, May.
  74. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
  75. Branko Uroševic & Mikica Drenovak & Vladimir Rankovic & Ranko Jelic & Milos Ivanovic, 2016. "Market Risk Management in a Post-Basel II Regulatory Environment," CESifo Working Paper Series 6293, CESifo.
  76. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2021. "Regulation of bank proprietary trading post 2007–09 crisis: An examination of the Basel framework and Volcker rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  77. Jae‐Yun Jun & Victor Lebreton & Yves Rakotondratsimba, 2021. "Forecasting negative yield‐curve distributions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 367-386, April.
  78. Carol Alexander & Daniel Ledermann, 2012. "ROM Simulation: Applications to Stress Testing and VaR," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2012-09, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  79. Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Leatham, David J., 2017. "Hedging downside risk of oil refineries: A vine copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 493-507.
  80. Iordanis Karagiannidis & D. Sykes Wilford, 2015. "Modeling fund and portfolio risk: A bi‐modal approach to analyzing risk in turbulent markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 19-26, April.
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