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Shortfall Deviation Risk: An alternative to risk measurement

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  • Marcelo Brutti Righi
  • Paulo Sergio Ceretta

Abstract

We present the Shortfall Deviation Risk (SDR), a risk measure that represents the expected loss that occurs with certain probability penalized by the dispersion of results that are worse than such an expectation. SDR combines Expected Shortfall (ES) and Shortfall Deviation (SD), which we also introduce, contemplating two fundamental pillars of the risk concept, the probability of adverse events and the variability of an expectation, and considers extreme results. We demonstrate that SD is a generalized deviation measure, whereas SDR is a coherent risk measure. We achieve the dual representation of SDR, and we discuss issues such as its representation by a weighted ES, acceptance sets, convexity, continuity and the relationship with stochastic dominance. Illustrations with real and simulated data allow us to conclude that SDR offers greater protection in risk measurement compared with VaR and ES, especially in times of significant turbulence in riskier scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Brutti Righi & Paulo Sergio Ceretta, 2015. "Shortfall Deviation Risk: An alternative to risk measurement," Papers 1501.02007, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1501.02007
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    Cited by:

    1. Deepak K. Jadhav & Ramanathan Thekke Variyam, 2023. "Modified Expected Shortfall: a Coherent Risk Measure for Elliptical Family of Distributions," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 234-256, May.
    2. Ramos, Henrique Pinto & Righi, Marcelo Brutti, 2020. "Liquidity, implied volatility and tail risk: A comparison of liquidity measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Psarrakos, Georgios & Sordo, Miguel A., 2019. "On a family of risk measures based on proportional hazards models and tail probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 232-240.
    4. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Müller, Fernanda Maria & Moresco, Marlon Ruoso, 2020. "On a robust risk measurement approach for capital determination errors minimization," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 199-211.
    5. Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2019. "A composition between risk and deviation measures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 299-313, November.
    6. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Fernanda Maria Muller & Marlon Ruoso Moresco, 2022. "A risk measurement approach from risk-averse stochastic optimization of score functions," Papers 2208.14809, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    7. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Marlon Ruoso Moresco, 2024. "Inf-convolution and optimal risk sharing with countable sets of risk measures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 336(1), pages 829-860, May.
    8. George Tzagkarakis & Frantz Maurer, 2023. "Horizon-Adaptive Extreme Risk Quantification for Cryptocurrency Assets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(3), pages 1251-1286, October.
    9. Pablo Cristini Guedes & Fernanda Maria Müller & Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2023. "Risk measures-based cluster methods for finance," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-56, March.
    10. Marlon Moresco & Marcelo Righi & Eduardo Horta, 2020. "Minkowski gauges and deviation measures," Papers 2007.01414, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    11. Mohammed Berkhouch & Fernanda Maria Müller & Ghizlane Lakhnati & Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2022. "Deviation-Based Model Risk Measures," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 527-547, February.
    12. Sant’Anna, Leonardo Riegel & Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Müller, Fernanda Maria & Guedes, Pablo Cristini, 2022. "Risk measure index tracking model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 361-383.
    13. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Marlon Ruoso Moresco, 2022. "Star-Shaped deviations," Papers 2207.08613, arXiv.org.
    14. Fracasso, Laís Martins & Müller, Fernanda Maria & Ramos, Henrique Pinto & Righi, Marcelo Brutti, 2023. "Is there a risk premium? Evidence from thirteen measures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 182-199.
    15. Fernanda Maria Müller & Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2018. "Numerical comparison of multivariate models to forecasting risk measures," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 29-50, February.
    16. Gupta, Jairaj & Chaudhry, Sajid, 2019. "Mind the tail, or risk to fail," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 167-185.
    17. Adrien Becam & Andros Gregoriou & Jairaj Gupta, 2019. "Does size matter in predicting hedge funds' liquidation?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(2), pages 271-309, March.
    18. Mitja Stadje, 2018. "Representation Results for Law Invariant Recursive Dynamic Deviation Measures and Risk Sharing," Papers 1811.09615, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
    19. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Borenstein, Denis, 2018. "A simulation comparison of risk measures for portfolio optimization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 105-112.
    20. Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2018. "A theory for combinations of risk measures," Papers 1807.01977, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.

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