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Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research

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Cited by:

  1. Valeria Croce & Karl W. Wöber, 2011. "Judgemental Forecasting Support Systems in Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(4), pages 709-724, August.
  2. Goodwin, Paul, 2000. "Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 261-275.
  3. Deschamps, Elaine, 2004. "The impact of institutional change on forecast accuracy: A case study of budget forecasting in Washington State," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 647-657.
  4. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series : P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553-568," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 319-321, June.
  5. Naik, Gopal, 2004. "The structural qualitative method: a promising forecasting tool for developing country markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 475-485.
  6. Goodwin, Paul, 2002. "Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 127-135, April.
  7. Goodwin, Paul, 2000. "Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 85-99.
  8. Joan Mileski & Christopher Clott & Cassia Bomer Galvao & Taliese Laverne, 2020. "Technical analysis: the psychology of the market of dry bulk freight rates," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
  9. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
  10. Wright, George & Lawrence, Michael J. & Collopy, Fred, 1996. "The role and validity of judgment in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, March.
  11. De Baets, Shari & Harvey, Nigel, 2020. "Using judgment to select and adjust forecasts from statistical models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 882-895.
  12. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert, 2002. "Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 381-392, October.
  13. Goodwin, Paul & Lawton, Richard, 2003. "Debiasing forecasts: how useful is the unbiasedness test?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 467-475.
  14. Diamantopoulos, Adamantios & Winklhofer, Heidi, 2003. "Export sales forecasting by UK firms: Technique utilization and impact on forecast accuracy," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 45-54, January.
  15. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
  16. Ian Durbach & Gilberto Montibeller, 2018. "Predicting in shock: on the impact of negative, extreme, rare, and short lived events on judgmental forecasts," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 213-233, June.
  17. Lim, Joa Sang & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 139-153, March.
  18. Harvey, Nigel & Bolger, Fergus, 1996. "Graphs versus tables: Effects of data presentation format on judgemental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 119-137, March.
  19. Kreye, M.E. & Goh, Y.M. & Newnes, L.B. & Goodwin, P., 2012. "Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 682-692.
  20. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
  21. Lin, Vera Shanshan & Goodwin, Paul & Song, Haiyan, 2014. "Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 156-174.
  22. Reimers, Stian & Harvey, Nigel, 2024. "Bars, lines and points: The effect of graph format on judgmental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 44-61.
  23. Sanders, N. R., 1997. "The impact of task properties feedback on time series judgmental forecasting tasks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 135-144, April.
  24. Zoe Theocharis & Leonard A. Smith & Nigel Harvey, 2019. "The influence of graphical format on judgmental forecasting accuracy: Lines versus points," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), March.
  25. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E., 1999. "Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 281-293, April.
  26. Welch, Eric & Bretschneider, Stuart & Rohrbaugh, John, 1998. "Accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series data: Characteristics, causes, and remediation strategies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 95-110, March.
  27. Thomson, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C. & Gönül, M. Sinan & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 337-353.
  28. Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-118, March.
  29. Arvan, Meysam & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen & Siemsen, Enno, 2019. "Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-252.
  30. Williams, Dan W. & Miller, Don, 1999. "Level-adjusted exponential smoothing for modeling planned discontinuities1," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 273-289, July.
  31. Goodwin, P., 1996. "Statistical correction of judgmental point forecasts and decisions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 551-559, October.
  32. Savio, Nicolas D. & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2013. "A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 311-321.
  33. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. Petropoulos, Fotios & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert, 2017. "Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 314-324.
  35. Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex, 2003. "The influence of trend strength on directional probabilistic currency predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-256.
  36. Belton, Valerie & Goodwin, Paul, 1996. "Remarks on the application of the analytic hierarchy process to judgmental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 155-161, March.
  37. Nikolopoulos, K. & Goodwin, P. & Patelis, A. & Assimakopoulos, V., 2007. "Forecasting with cue information: A comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 354-368, July.
  38. Han, Weiwei & Wang, Xun & Petropoulos, Fotios & Wang, Jing, 2019. "Brain imaging and forecasting: Insights from judgmental model selection," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-9.
  39. Reimers, Stian & Harvey, Nigel, 2011. "Sensitivity to autocorrelation in judgmental time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1196-1214, October.
  40. Remus, William & O'Connor, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1995. "Does reliable information improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 285-293, June.
  41. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
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