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Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series

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  • Pollock, Andrew C.
  • Macaulay, Alex
  • Onkal-Atay, Dilek
  • Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E.

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  • Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E., 1999. "Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 281-293, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:114:y:1999:i:2:p:281-293
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    1. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    14. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 1993. "Scale, Variability, and the Calibration of Judgmental Prediction Intervals," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 441-458, December.
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    26. Liu, Te-Ru & Gerlow, Mary E. & Irwin, Scott H., 1994. "The performance of alternative VAR models in forecasting exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 419-433, November.
    27. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    28. O'Connor, Marcus & Lawrence, Michael, 1992. "Time series characteristics and the widths of judgemental confidence intervals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 413-420, March.
    29. O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William & Griggs, Ken, 1993. "Judgemental forecasting in times of change," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 163-172, August.
    30. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
    31. Bhagwan Chowdhry, 1995. "Corporate Hedging of Exchange Risk When Foreign Currency Cash Flow Is Uncertain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(6), pages 1083-1090, June.
    32. van Hoek, Taco H., 1992. "Explaining mark/dollar and yen/dollar exchange rates in the 1980s," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 467-472, April.
    33. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-364, Oct.-Dec..
    34. Yates, J. Frank & Price, Paul C. & Lee, Ju-Whei & Ramirez, James, 1996. "Good probabilistic forecasters: The 'consumer's' perspective," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 41-56, March.
    35. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    36. Wilkie, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C., 1996. "An application of probability judgement accuracy measures to currency forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 25-40, March.
    37. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    38. Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "The statistical distribution of exchange rates: Empirical evidence and economic implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 297-319, May.
    39. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
    40. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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    42. Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
    43. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ltaifa, Nabil, 1992. "Effects of exchange rate risk on exports: crosscountry analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1173-1181, August.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ozer, Muammer, 2008. "Improving the accuracy of expert predictions of the future success of new internet services," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(3), pages 1085-1099, February.

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