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The impact of institutional change on forecast accuracy: A case study of budget forecasting in Washington State

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  • Deschamps, Elaine

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  • Deschamps, Elaine, 2004. "The impact of institutional change on forecast accuracy: A case study of budget forecasting in Washington State," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 647-657.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:20:y:2004:i:4:p:647-657
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    1. Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George, 1993. "Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 147-161, August.
    2. Shkurti, William J. & Winefordner, Darrell, 1989. "The politics of state revenue forecasting in Ohio, 1984-1987: A case study and research implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-371.
    3. Welch, Eric & Bretschneider, Stuart & Rohrbaugh, John, 1998. "Accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series data: Characteristics, causes, and remediation strategies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 95-110, March.
    4. Mocan, H. Naci & Azad, Sam, 1995. "Accuracy and rationality of state General Fund Revenue forecasts: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 417-427, September.
    5. Schultz, Randall L., 1992. "Fundamental aspects of forecasting in organizations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 409-411, March.
    6. Robert Carbone & Allan Andersen & Yvan Corriveau & Paul Piat Corson, 1983. "Comparing for Different Time Series Methods the Value of Technical Expertise Individualized Analysis, and Judgmental Adjustment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 559-566, May.
    7. Sanders, NR, 1992. "Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 353-364, May.
    8. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October.
    9. Mark S. Kamlet & David C. Mowery & Tsai-Tsu Su, 1987. "Whom do you trust? An analysis of executive and congressional economic forecasts," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 365-384.
    10. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
    2. Chatagny, Florian, 2015. "Incentive effects of fiscal rules on the finance minister's behavior: Evidence from revenue projections in Swiss Cantons," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 184-200.
    3. Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Lawrence, Michael & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2009. "Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23.
    4. Mehdi Alaoui Mhammedi, 2016. "Erreurs de prévision budgétaire : Étude exploratoire des causes des excédents budgétaires dans les structures communales au Maroc," Post-Print hal-01901125, HAL.
    5. George A. Krause & David E. Lewis & James W. Douglas, 2013. "Politics Can Limit Policy Opportunism in Fiscal Institutions: Evidence from Official General Fund Revenue Forecasts in the American States," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 271-295, March.
    6. Stijn Goeminne & Benny Geys & Carine Smolders, 2008. "Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(3), pages 297-315, June.

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