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Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge

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  • Petropoulos, Fotios
  • Goodwin, Paul
  • Fildes, Robert

Abstract

There are several biases and inefficiencies that are commonly associated with the judgmental extrapolation of time series, even when the forecasters have technical knowledge about forecasting. This study examines the effectiveness of using a rolling training approach, based on feedback, to improve the accuracy of forecasts elicited from people with such knowledge. In an experiment, forecasters were asked to make multiple judgmental extrapolations for a set of time series from different time origins. For each series in turn, the participants were either unaided or provided with feedback. In the latter case, the true outcomes and performance feedback were provided following the submission of each set of forecasts. The objective was to provide a training scheme that would enable forecasters to understand the underlying pattern of the data better by learning from their forecast errors directly. An analysis of the results indicated that this rolling training approach is an effective method for enhancing the judgmental extrapolations elicited from people with technical knowledge, especially when bias feedback is provided. As such, it could be a valuable element in the design of software systems that are intended to support expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) in forecasting.

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  • Petropoulos, Fotios & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert, 2017. "Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 314-324.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:1:p:314-324
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.12.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Bolger, Fergus & Wright, George, 2017. "Use of expert knowledge to anticipate the future: Issues, analysis and directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 230-243.
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      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    4. Sroginis, Anna & Fildes, Robert & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2023. "Use of contextual and model-based information in adjusting promotional forecasts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1177-1191.
    5. Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.
    6. Andrey Davydenko & Paul Goodwin, 2021. "Assessing Point Forecast Bias Across Multiple Time Series: Measures and Visual Tools," International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(5), pages 1-46, September.

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