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Stochastic methods in population forecasting

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
  2. EL-HOUJJAJI, Hind & ECHAOUI, Abdellah, 2020. "Assessing the financial sustainability of parametric pension system reforms: The case of Morocco," MPRA Paper 98912, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
  4. Wasantha Athukorala & Clevo Wilson & Prasad Neelawela & Evonne Miller & Tony Sahama & Peter Grace & Mike Hefferan & Premawansa Dissanayake & Oshan Manawadu, 2010. "Forecasting Population Changes and Service Requirements in the Regions: A Study of Two Regional Councils in Queensland, Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 327-349, December.
  5. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & Ed Westerhout, 2008. "The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 104.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  6. Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(21), pages 593-644.
  7. Wilson, Chris, 2002. "Forecast errors in global population projections: implications for food," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 125608, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  8. Mikko Myrskylä & Joshua Goldstein, 2013. "Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 237-260, February.
  9. Stanley Smith & Jeff Tayman, 2003. "An evaluation of population projections by age," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(4), pages 741-757, November.
  10. Alho, Juha, 2014. "Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Expectations for Sustainability Analyses," ETLA Reports 24, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  11. Do-Woo Kim & Ravinesh Deo & Jea-Hak Chung & Jong-Seol Lee, 2016. "Projection of heat wave mortality related to climate change in Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 623-637, January.
  12. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
  13. Tuljapurkar, Shripad & Boe, Carl, 1999. "Validation, probability-weighted priors, and information in stochastic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 259-271, July.
  14. Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov & Brian O'Neill & Wolfgang Lutz, 2003. "Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting," VID Working Papers 0303, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
  15. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham, 2000. "Predictive Intervals for Age-Specific Fertility," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 41-65, March.
  16. Wolfgang Lutz & Sergei Scherbov, 1998. "An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National Population Projections: The Example of Austria," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, March.
  17. Oberhofer, Walter & Reichsthaler, Thomas, 2004. "Modelling Fertility: A Semi-Parametric Approach," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 396, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  18. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
  19. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2015. "Longevity Risk and Taxation of Public Pensions," CESifo Working Paper Series 5640, CESifo.
  20. Richard S. Grip & Meghan L. Grip, 2020. "Using Multiple Methods to Provide Prediction Bands of K-12 Enrollment Projections," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(1), pages 1-22, February.
  21. repec:mpr:mprres:3780 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
  23. Määttänen, Niku & Alho, Juha, 2014. "Response to updated mortality forecasts in life cycle saving and labor supply," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1120-1127.
  24. Ronkainen, Vesa, 2012. "Stochastic modeling of financing longevity risk in pension insurance," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_044, July.
  25. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & Ed Westerhout, 2008. "The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 104, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  26. Vanella, Patrizio, 2017. "Age- and Sex-Specific Fertility in Germany until the Year 2040 - The Impact of International Migration," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-606, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  27. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454.
  28. Ortega, Jose Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2005. "Joint forecasts of Southern European fertility rates with non-stationary dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 539-550.
  29. Alho, Juha A., 2002. "The Population of Finland in 2050 and Beyond," Discussion Papers 826, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  30. Jeff Tayman & Stanley Smith & Jeffrey Lin, 2007. "Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 347-369, June.
  31. W. Lutz & S. Scherbov, 1997. "Sensitivity Analysis of Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections in the Case of Austria," Working Papers ir97048, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
  32. Giacometti, Rosella & Bertocchi, Marida & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2012. "A comparison of the Lee–Carter model and AR–ARCH model for forecasting mortality rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 85-93.
  33. Jeff Tayman, 2011. "Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts: State of the Practice and Implementation Strategy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(5), pages 781-800, October.
  34. Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  35. D. Bauer & G. Feichtinger & W. Lutz & W.C. Sanderson, 1999. "Variances of Population Projections: Comparison of Two Approaches," Working Papers ir99063, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
  36. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2018. "Longevity, Working Lives, And Public Finances," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 467-482, July.
  37. Joan Costa-Font & Raphael Wittenberg & Concepció Patxot & Adelina Comas-Herrera & Cristiano Gori & Alessandra di Maio & Linda Pickard & Alessandro Pozzi & Heinz Rothgang, 2008. "Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 86(2), pages 303-321, April.
  38. Alho, Juha M., 2014. "Forecasting demographic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1128-1135.
  39. Ronkainen, Vesa, 2012. "Stochastic modeling of financing longevity risk in pension insurance," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_044.
  40. Wolfgang P. Lutz, 2001. "World population in 2050: assessing the projections: discussion," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
  41. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_044 is not listed on IDEAS
  42. Howard Hogan & William Bell & Lynn Weidman & Allen Schirm, "undated". "Integrating Survey, Demographic, and Modeling Methods," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 750bf79c04de481591c588568, Mathematica Policy Research.
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