IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/coecpo/v36y2018i3p467-482.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Longevity, Working Lives, And Public Finances

Author

Listed:
  • Jukka Lassila
  • Tarmo Valkonen

Abstract

We find that linking statutory retirement ages to life expectancy is a promising way to extend working lives and generate enough tax revenues so that generations enjoying longer lifetimes can also pay for the consequent increase in pensions and public health and long‐term care (LTC) expenditure. We use a numerical economic model, calibrated to the Finnish economy and demographics, in which mortality affects both retirement ages and per capita use of health and LTC services. Uncertainty in mortality projections and the resulting uncertainties in public finances and retirement policy effects are considered explicitly. (JEL H30, H63, H68, J11)

Suggested Citation

  • Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2018. "Longevity, Working Lives, And Public Finances," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 467-482, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:36:y:2018:i:3:p:467-482
    DOI: 10.1111/coep.12262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12262
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/coep.12262?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Timo, 2008. "Population ageing and fiscal sustainability in Finland : a stochastic analysis," Research Discussion Papers 28/2008, Bank of Finland.
    2. John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1997. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 781-832, July.
    3. Alho, Juha A., 2002. "The Population of Finland in 2050 and Beyond," Discussion Papers 826, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    4. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2007. "The Finnish Pension Reform of 2005," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 32(1), pages 75-94, January.
    5. Alho, Juha M., 1990. "Stochastic methods in population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 521-530, December.
    6. Honkatukia, Juha, 2011. "Three takes on sustainability," Research Reports P58, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Torbe M. Andersen, 2012. "Fiscal sustainability and fiscal policy targets," Economics Working Papers 2012-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Stock, James H & Wise, David A, 1990. "Pensions, the Option Value of Work, and Retirement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
    9. Auerbach,Alan J. & Lee,Ronald D. (ed.), 2001. "Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662444, January.
    10. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen & Juha M. Alho, 2011. "Assessing the sustainability of health and long-term care financing - and the usefulness of policy guidelines based on demographic forecasts," Chapters, in: Three takes sustainability. VATT Publications 58, pages 151-175, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    11. Lassila, Jukka & Määttänen, Niku & Valkonen, Tarmo, . "Linking retirement age to life expectancy – what happens to working lives and income distribution?," ETLA B, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 260, June.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alho, Juha & Lassila, Jukka, 2022. "Assessing Components of Uncertainty in Demographic Forecasts with an Application to Fiscal Sustainability," ETLA Working Papers 92, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Tarmo Valkonen, 2020. "The Finnish Pension System and Its Future Challenges," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(2), pages 92-96, March.
    3. Heikki Tikanmaki & Hannu Sihvonen & Janne Salonen, 2015. "Distributional Effects of the Forthcoming Finnish Pension Reform - a Dynamic Microsimulation Approach," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 8(3), pages 75-98.
    4. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Discussion Paper 2022-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Other publications TiSEM 252a02fe-7374-499e-97c5-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Juha Alho & Jukka Lassila, 2023. "Assessing components of uncertainty in demographic forecasts with an application to fiscal sustainability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1560-1568, November.
    7. Arto Kovanen, 2022. "Population Dynamics, Macroeconomic Risks, and the Future of Pensions in Finland," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 21-41, May.
    8. Lassila, Jukka, 2018. "Aggregate Risks, Intergenerational Risk-Sharing and Fiscal Sustainability in the Finnish Earnings-Related Pension System," ETLA Working Papers 57, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2015. "Longevity Risk and Taxation of Public Pensions," CESifo Working Paper Series 5640, CESifo.
    2. Lassila, Jukka, 2018. "Aggregate Risks, Intergenerational Risk-Sharing and Fiscal Sustainability in the Finnish Earnings-Related Pension System," ETLA Working Papers 57, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. John Laitner, 2003. "Labor Supply Responses to Social Security," Working Papers wp050, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    4. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo & Alho, Juha M., 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and policy rules under changing demographic forecasts," Discussion Papers 1265, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    5. Bairoliya, Neha, 2019. "Pension plan heterogeneity and retirement behavior," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 28-59.
    6. Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2011. "The role of information for retirement behavior: Evidence based on the stepwise introduction of the Social Security Statement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 913-925, August.
    7. Arthur Van Soest & Arie Kapteyn & Julie Zissimopoulos, 2006. "Using Stated Preferences Data to Analyze Preferences for Full and Partial Retirement," Working Papers WR-345, RAND Corporation.
    8. Iskhakov, Fedor, 2008. "Dynamic Programming Model of Health and Retirement," Memorandum 03/2008, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    9. Blau, David M. & Riphahn, Regina T., 1999. "Labor force transitions of older married couples in Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 229-252, June.
    10. Frank van Erp & Niels Vermeer & Daniel van Vuuren, 2013. "Non-financial determinants of retirement," CPB Discussion Paper 243.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Haan, Peter & Tolan, Songül, 2019. "Labor supply and fiscal effects of partial retirement – The role of entry age and the timing of pension benefits," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    12. Joshua Congdon-Hohman, 2018. "Retirement Reversals and Health Insurance," Public Finance Review, , vol. 46(4), pages 583-608, July.
    13. Frank Erp & Niels Vermeer & Daniel Vuuren, 2014. "Non-financial Determinants of Retirement: A Literature Review," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 167-191, June.
    14. Lalive, Rafael & Parrotta, Pierpaolo, 2017. "How does pension eligibility affect labor supply in couples?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 177-188.
    15. Jean-Olivier Hairault & François Langot & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2008. "Quantifying The Laffer Curve On The Continued Activity Tax In A Dynastic Framework," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 755-797, August.
    16. Tobias Laun & Johanna Wallenius, 2016. "Social Insurance and Retirement: A Cross-Country Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 72-92, October.
    17. Federico Biagi & ?Danilo Cavapozzi & ?Raffaele Miniaci, 2007. "Technology, Skills and Retirement," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0042, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    18. Denis Fougère & Pierre Gouëdard, 2021. "The effects of financial incentives and disincentives on teachers' retirement decisions: Evidence from the 2003 French pension reform," Working Papers hal-03465859, HAL.
    19. Mullen, Kathleen J. & Staubli, Stefan, 2016. "Disability benefit generosity and labor force withdrawal," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 49-63.
    20. Rogowski, Jeannette & Karoly, Lynn, 2000. "Health insurance and retirement behavior: evidence from the health and retirement survey," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 529-539, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:36:y:2018:i:3:p:467-482. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.