IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rif/report/24.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Expectations for Sustainability Analyses

Author

Listed:
  • Alho, Juha

Abstract

Optimal forecasts are, under a squared error loss, conditional expectations of the unknown future values of interest. When stochastic demographic models are used in macroeconomic analyses, it becomes important to be able to handle updated forecasts. That is, when population development turns out to differ from the expected one, the decision makers in the macroeconomic models may change their behavior. To allow for this, numerical methods have been developed that allow us to approximate how future forecasts might look like, for any given observed path. Some technical details of how this can be done in the R environment are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Alho, Juha, 2014. "Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Expectations for Sustainability Analyses," ETLA Reports 24, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:rif:report:24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.etla.fi/wp-content/uploads/ETLA-Raportit-Reports-24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alho, Juha M., 1990. "Stochastic methods in population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 521-530, December.
    2. Alho, Juha M., 2014. "Forecasting demographic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1128-1135.
    3. Juha Alho & Nico Keilman, 2010. "On future household structure," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(1), pages 117-143, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alho, Juha M., 2014. "Forecasting demographic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1128-1135.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Määttänen, Niku & Alho, Juha, 2014. "Response to updated mortality forecasts in life cycle saving and labor supply," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1120-1127.
    2. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    3. EL-HOUJJAJI, Hind & ECHAOUI, Abdellah, 2020. "Assessing the financial sustainability of parametric pension system reforms: The case of Morocco," MPRA Paper 98912, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    5. repec:mpr:mprres:3780 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    7. Jeff Tayman & Stanley Smith & Jeffrey Lin, 2007. "Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 347-369, June.
    8. Alho, Juha & Lassila, Jukka, 2022. "Assessing Components of Uncertainty in Demographic Forecasts with an Application to Fiscal Sustainability," ETLA Working Papers 92, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    9. Alho, Juha M., 2014. "Forecasting demographic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1128-1135.
    10. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2018. "Longevity, Working Lives, And Public Finances," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 467-482, July.
    11. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    12. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
    13. Rasmus Højbjerg Jacobsen & Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, 2014. "Changing Age and Household Patterns: Implications for Welfare Costs in Denmark 1982 – 2007," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 39, pages 1-4.
    14. Richard S. Grip & Meghan L. Grip, 2020. "Using Multiple Methods to Provide Prediction Bands of K-12 Enrollment Projections," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(1), pages 1-22, February.
    15. Vanella, Patrizio, 2017. "Age- and Sex-Specific Fertility in Germany until the Year 2040 - The Impact of International Migration," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-606, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    16. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454.
    17. Raffaella Rubino & Arjeta Veshi, 2023. "Changing family models. the case of the Puglia region," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 77(2), pages 132-142, April-Jun.
    18. W. Lutz & S. Scherbov, 1997. "Sensitivity Analysis of Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections in the Case of Austria," Working Papers ir97048, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    19. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_044 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Wasantha Athukorala & Clevo Wilson & Prasad Neelawela & Evonne Miller & Tony Sahama & Peter Grace & Mike Hefferan & Premawansa Dissanayake & Oshan Manawadu, 2010. "Forecasting Population Changes and Service Requirements in the Regions: A Study of Two Regional Councils in Queensland, Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 327-349, December.
    21. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2015. "Longevity Risk and Taxation of Public Pensions," CESifo Working Paper Series 5640, CESifo.
    22. Ronkainen, Vesa, 2012. "Stochastic modeling of financing longevity risk in pension insurance," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_044, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demography; Forecasting; Overlapping generations;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rif:report:24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kaija Hyvönen-Rajecki (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/etlaafi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.