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Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?

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  1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables

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Cited by:

  1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
  2. Arturo Estrella, 2007. "Generalized canonical regression," Staff Reports 288, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Chris Florakis & Gianluigi Giorgioni & Alexandros Kostakis & Costas Milas, 2012. "The Impact of Stock Market Illiquidity on Real UK GDP Growth," Working Paper series 65_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  4. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
  5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
  6. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
  7. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "Indeterminacy and Forecastability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 243-251, February.
  9. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  10. Fernando Garcia Alvarado, 2022. "Detecting crisis vulnerability using yield spread interconnectedness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3864-3880, October.
  11. Ege, Yazgan & Huseyin, Kaya, 2010. "Has inflation targeting increased predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from an emerging market ?," MPRA Paper 24810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Zolotoy, Leon & Frederickson, James R. & Lyon, John D., 2017. "Aggregate earnings and stock market returns: The good, the bad, and the state-dependent," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 157-175.
  13. Haydory Akbar Ahmed & M. Wasiqur Rahman Khan, 2022. "Short-term and long-term interest rate spread’s dynamics to risk and the yield curve," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-19, October.
  14. Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
  15. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 185-205, March.
  16. Cooper, Ilan & Priestley, Richard, 2011. "Real investment and risk dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 182-205, July.
  17. Howard Kung, 2014. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," 2014 Meeting Papers 560, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Todd J. BARRY, 2020. "Causes of the curve: Assessing risk in public and private financial economics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 109-130, Summer.
  19. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
  20. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
  21. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  22. Javier Gomez-Biscarri, 2009. "The predictive power of the term spread revisited: a change in the sign of the predictive relationship," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1131-1142.
  23. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
  24. Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  25. Yasmeen Idilbi-Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices Using the Term Structure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-39, December.
  26. Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Migiakis, Petros M., 2013. "Heterogeneity of the determinants of euro-area sovereign bond spreads; what does it tell us about financial stability?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4650-4664.
  27. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2015. "Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 635-645, April.
  28. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
  29. Keith Elliott & Gianluca Marcato, 2011. "Alternative investments: return driving actors," ERES eres2011_151, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  30. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2012. "The dynamics of housing returns in Singapore: How important are the international transmission mechanisms?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 516-530.
  31. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  32. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2013. "In the Shadow of the U nited S tates: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-40, February.
  33. Roberto Santis, 2015. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1401-1430, December.
  34. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  35. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2013. "Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1032-1043.
  36. repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_018 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
  38. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
  39. Boucher, C. & Jasinski, A. & Tokpavi, S., 2023. "Conditional mean reversion of financial ratios and the predictability of returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  40. Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Jul).
  41. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
  42. Baruník, Jozef & Bevilacqua, Mattia & Faff, Robert, 2024. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
  43. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
  44. Harri Pönkä & Markku Stenborg, 2020. "Forecasting the state of the Finnish business cycle," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 81-99, Spring.
  45. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
  46. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
  47. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1044-1064.
  48. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 185-205, March.
  49. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
  50. Leila Davis & Thomas R. Michl, 2024. "The Inverted Yield Curve in a 3-Equation Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 195-212, April.
  51. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-54.
  52. Mr. Ivailo Arsov & Mr. Elie Canetti & Ms. Laura E. Kodres & Ms. Srobona Mitra, 2013. "Near-Coincident Indicators of Systemic Stress," IMF Working Papers 2013/115, International Monetary Fund.
  53. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Business Cycles across Space and Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 921-952, June.
  54. Markku Lanne & Henri Nyberg, 2016. "Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for Linear and Nonlinear Multivariate Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(4), pages 595-603, August.
  55. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2008. "Changes in the informational content of term spreads: Is monetary policy becoming less effective?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 415-435.
  56. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The term structure as a predictor of real activity and inflation in the euro area: a reassessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 177-92, Bank for International Settlements.
  57. X. Wang & Bill Yang, 2012. "Yield Curve Inversion and the Incidence of Recession: A Dynamic IS-LM Model with Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 177-185, May.
  58. Chen, Long & Zhang, Lu, 2011. "Do time-varying risk premiums explain labor market performance?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 385-399, February.
  59. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
  60. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
  61. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 221-257, July.
  62. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  63. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
  64. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  65. Francesco Zanetti & Christoph Görtz & Wei Li & John Tsoukalas, 2020. "Vintage Article: The Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks in the United Kingdom: an External Instruments Approach," Economics Series Working Papers 812, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  66. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
  67. Rodrigo Alfaro & Damián Romero, 2013. "A Note on Yield Spread and Output Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 700, Central Bank of Chile.
  68. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
  69. Nakaota, Hiroshi & Fukuta, Yuichi, 2013. "The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 85-98.
  70. Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2009. "The stock market and aggregate employment," NBER Working Papers 15219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  71. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti, 2018. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(4), pages 755-787, August.
  72. Cross, Jamie L. & Hoogerheide, Lennart & Labonne, Paul & van Dijk, Herman K., 2024. "Bayesian mode inference for discrete distributions in economics and finance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
  73. Hasan Cömert, 2012. "Decoupling between the Federal Funds Rate and Long-term Interest Rates: Decreasing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the U.S," Working Papers wp295, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  74. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 13168, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  75. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  76. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 2005. "One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory," Staff Reports 232, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  77. Kung, Howard, 2015. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 42-57.
  78. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
  79. Oral Erdogan & Paul Bennett & Cenktan Ozyildirim, 2015. "Recession Prediction Using Yield Curve and Stock Market Liquidity Deviation Measures," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 407-422.
  80. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2008. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 48-50, April.
  81. Filippo di Mauro & Filippo di Mauro, Fabio Fornari, 2014. "Going granular: The importance of firm-level equity information in anticipating economic activity," EcoMod2014 6809, EcoMod.
  82. Huseyin Kaya & M. Ege Yazgan, 2011. "Has 'inflation targeting' increased the predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from Turkish experience?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(20), pages 1539-1547.
  83. Asgharian, Hossein & Liu, Lu & Larsson, Marcus, 2018. "Cross-border asset holdings and comovements in sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 189-206.
  84. Luciano Vereda & Hélio Lopes & Jessica Kubrusly & Adrian Pizzinga & Taofik Mohammed Ibrahim, 2014. "Yield Curve Forecasts and the Predictive Power of Macro Variables in a VAR Framework," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 377-393.
  85. Hiroshi Nakaota & Yuichi Fukuta, 2013. "The Leading Indicator Property of the Term Spread and the Monetary Policy Factors in Japan," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-09-Rev, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
  86. Mirko Abbritti & Juan Equiza & Antonio Moreno & Tommaso Trani, 2024. "Downturns and changes in the yield slope," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 673-701, April.
  87. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2016. "The time-varying leading properties of the high yield spread in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 203-230.
  88. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
  89. Leo Krippner, 2005. "A New Framework for Yield Curve, Output and Inflation Relationships," Working Papers in Economics 05/07, University of Waikato.
  90. Francisco Palomino, 2008. "The Economic Content of Interest Rates, Monetary Policy and Time-Varying Risk Premia," 2008 Meeting Papers 957, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  91. Cross, Jamie L. & Hoogerheide, Lennart & Labonne, Paul & van Dijk, Herman K., 2024. "Bayesian mode inference for discrete distributions in economics and finance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
  92. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Expectations hypothesis in the context of debt crisis: Evidence from five major EU countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 243-258.
  93. Manqoba Ntshakala & Laurence Harris, 2018. "The information content of the yield spread about future inflation in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-63, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  94. Baghestani, Hamid & Toledo, Hugo, 2017. "Do analysts' forecasts of term spread differential help predict directional change in exchange rates?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 62-69.
  95. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  96. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2016. "Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 62-77.
  97. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  98. Leo Krippner, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Research Paper Series 226, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  99. Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  100. Rui Chen & Jiri Svec & Maurice Peat, 2016. "Forecasting the Government Bond Term Structure in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 99-111, June.
  101. di Mauro, Filippo & Fornari, Fabio & Mannucci, Dario, 2011. "Stock market firm-level information and real economic activity," Working Paper Series 1366, European Central Bank.
  102. Michael T. Kiley, 2023. "Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics: Tying the Pieces Together," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  103. Knut Lehre Seip & Dan Zhang, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Accuracy and Timing of a Parsimonious Forecasting Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, May.
  104. Huseyin Kaya, 2013. "On the Predictive Power of Yield Spread for Future Growth and Recession: The Turkish Case," Working Papers 010, Bahcesehir University, Betam, revised Mar 2013.
  105. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2016. "Bond Spreads and Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(598), pages 2257-2291, December.
  106. Mr. Luis Catão & Mr. George A Mackenzie, 2006. "Perspectiveson Low Global Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2006/076, International Monetary Fund.
  107. Parley Ruogu Yang, 2020. "Using the yield curve to forecast economic growth," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1057-1080, November.
  108. Schock, Matthias, 2015. "Predicting Economic Activity via Eurozone Yield Spreads: Impact of Credit Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-542, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  109. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Rudi Steinbach, 2020. "Forecasting output growth using a DSGE-based decomposition of the South African yield curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 351-378, January.
  110. Francis Bismans & Reynald Majetti, 2013. "Forecasting recessions using financial variables: the French case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 419-433, April.
  111. Éric Dubois, 2006. "Présentation générale," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 1-9.
  112. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  113. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2020. "The yield spread's ability to forecast economic activity: What have we learned after 30 years of studies?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 221-232.
  114. Raffaele Passaro, 2007. "The Predictive Power of Interest Rates Spread for Economic Activity," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(6), pages 81-112, November-.
  115. Morell, Joseph, 2018. "The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 314-331.
  116. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Ms. Srobona Mitra & Ms. Li L Ong, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London As a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 2007/074, International Monetary Fund.
  117. Juan Laborda & Sonia Ruano & Ignacio Zamanillo, 2023. "Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
  118. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
  119. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
  120. Boubaker, Sabri & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2017. "Assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy and low interest rates on pension fund risk incentives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 35-52.
  121. Fida Hussain & Asif Mahmood, 2017. "Predicting Output Growth and Inflation in Pakistan: The Role of Yield Spread," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 53-76.
  122. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng & Ching-Sheng Mao, 2014. "Identifying and forecasting house prices: a macroeconomic perspective," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2105-2120, December.
  123. Samuel Maurer & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jul), pages 1-11.
  124. Masashi Hasegawa & Yuichi Fukuta, 2011. "An empirical analysis of information in the yield spread on future recessions in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1865-1881.
  125. Abdul Majid, Muhamed Zulkhibri, 2011. "Predicting Output and Inflation in Less Developed Financial Markets Using the Yield Curve: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  126. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," GLO Discussion Paper Series 523, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  127. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
  128. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  129. Elyas Elyasiani & Iftekhar Hasan & Elena Kalotychou & Panos K. Pouliasis & Sotiris K. Staikouras, 2020. "Banks’ equity performance and the term structure of interest rates," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 43-64, May.
  130. Chiang, Min-Hsien & Huang, Hsin-Yi, 2011. "Stock market momentum, business conditions, and GARCH option pricing models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-505, June.
  131. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  132. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2021. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 341-362, November.
  133. ARANHA, Marcel Z. & MOURA, Marcelo L., 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on the yield curve in the Brazilian economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_157, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  134. Akhter, Selim & Daly, Kevin, 2017. "Contagion risk for Australian banks from global systemically important banks: Evidence from extreme events," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 191-205.
  135. Binner, J.M. & Tino, P. & Tepper, J. & Anderson, R. & Jones, B. & Kendall, G., 2010. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4793-4808.
  136. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
  137. Laurence Harris & Manqoba Ntshakala, 2018. "The information content of the yield spread about future inflation in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 63, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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  139. Ante Toni Vrdoljak, 2016. "Corporate Bond Yield Curve Estimation for the Croatian Financial Market Using the Nelson-Siegel Model," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 2(4), pages 269-284.
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