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Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method

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Cited by:

  1. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
  2. Andrei S. Gonçalves, 2021. "Reinvestment Risk and the Equity Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2153-2197, October.
  3. Li, Yuan & Ran, Jimmy, 2020. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Price Premium Validation with Siamese Twins from China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
  4. Bollerslev, Tim & Gibson, Michael & Zhou, Hao, 2011. "Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 235-245, January.
  5. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2022. "Stock return predictability: Evaluation based on interval forecasts," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 363-385, April.
  6. Ai Deng, 2014. "Understanding Spurious Regression in Financial Economics," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 122-150.
  7. James J. Choi & Li Jin & Hongjun Yan, 2013. "What Does Stock Ownership Breadth Measure?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1239-1278.
  8. Fukang Zhu & Zongwu Cai & Liang Peng, 2014. "Predictive regressions for macroeconomic data," Papers 1404.7642, arXiv.org.
  9. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010. "International stock return predictability under model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1256-1282, November.
  10. Laurent Barras & Patrick Gagliardini & O. Scaillet, 2018. "The Cross-Sectional Distribution of Fund Skill Measures," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 18-66, Swiss Finance Institute.
  11. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2013. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1483-1525.
  12. Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M. & Wang, Yi, 2010. "Predictive regression with order-p autoregressive predictors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 513-525, June.
  13. Yijie Fei & Yiu Lim Lui & Jun Yu, 2024. "Testing Predictability in the Presence of Persistent Errors," Working Papers 202401, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
  14. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier & Kim, Jae, 2016. "Stock Return Predictability: Evaluation based on Prediction Intervals," MPRA Paper 70143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2012. "Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 363-382.
  16. Belén Nieto & Rosa Rodríguez, 2006. "The Consumption/Wealth and Book/Market Ratios in a Dynamic Asset Pricing Contex," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 199-226, September.
  17. Yang, Bingduo & Long, Wei & Yang, Zihui, 2022. "Testing predictability of stock returns under possible bubbles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 246-260.
  18. Ferson, Wayne E. & Sarkissian, Sergei & Simin, Timothy, 2008. "Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 331-353, June.
  19. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2015. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 55-109.
  20. Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
  21. Malcolm Baker & Robin Greenwood & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2009. "Catering through Nominal Share Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2559-2590, December.
  22. Gungor, Sermin & Luger, Richard, 2020. "Small-sample tests for stock return predictability with possibly non-stationary regressors and GARCH-type effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 750-770.
  23. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Transformed regression-based long-horizon predictability tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  24. Ren, Yu & Tu, Yundong & Yi, Yanping, 2019. "Balanced predictive regressions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 118-142.
  25. Xiaoquan Jiang & Bong‐Soo Lee, 2006. "The Dynamic Relation Between Returns and Idiosyncratic Volatility," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 43-65, June.
  26. Jacob Boudoukh & Ronen Israel & Matthew P. Richardson, 2020. "Biases in Long-Horizon Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 27410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "Jackknifing stock return predictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 793-803, December.
  28. Demetrescu, Matei & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2022. "Testing for episodic predictability in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 85-113.
  29. Guillaume Coqueret, 2023. "Forking paths in financial economics," Papers 2401.08606, arXiv.org.
  30. J. Sa‐Aadu & James Shilling & Ashish Tiwari, 2010. "On the Portfolio Properties of Real Estate in Good Times and Bad Times1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 529-565, September.
  31. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  32. Natascia Angelini & Giacomo Bormetti & Stefano Marmi & Franco Nardini, 2018. "Value Matters: The Long-run Behavior of Stock Index Returns," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 12, pages 16-28, May.
  33. Stefan Bruder, 2014. "Comparing several methods to compute joint prediction regions for path forecasts generated by vector autoregressions," ECON - Working Papers 181, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Dec 2015.
  34. Elliott, Graham, 2011. "A control function approach for testing the usefulness of trending variables in forecast models and linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 79-91, September.
  35. Yu, Deshui & Chen, Li, 2024. "Local predictability of stock returns and cash flows," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  36. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
  37. I.Fatnassi & S.Chawechi & Z.Ftiti & A.Ben Maatoug, 2014. "Effects of Monetary Policy on the REIT Returns," Working Papers 2014-63, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  38. Jurdi, Doureige & Kim, Jae, 2019. "Predicting the U.S. Stock Market Return: Evidence from the Improved Augmented Regression Method," MPRA Paper 94028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Maynard, Alex & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2009. "Covariance-Based Orthogonality Tests For Regressors With Unknown Persistence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 63-116, February.
  40. Frans de Roon & Marta Szymanowska, 2012. "Asset Pricing Restrictions on Predictability: Frictions Matter," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1916-1932, October.
  41. Thorsten Lehnert, 2022. "Corporate managers, price noise and the investment factor," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, December.
  42. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Chen, Li & Li, Luyang, 2023. "Forecasting dividend growth: The role of adjusted earnings yield," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  43. Nieto, Belén & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2011. "The volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors and economic cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2197-2216, September.
  44. Zongwu Cai & Seong Yeon Chang, 2018. "A New Test In A Predictive Regression with Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201811, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2018.
  45. Griffin, Paul A. & Hong, Hyun A. & Ryou, Ji Woo, 2018. "Corporate innovative efficiency: Evidence of effects on credit ratings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 352-373.
  46. Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Lee, Doowon & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Time-varying return predictability in South Asian equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 179-200.
  47. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2014. "Bias-Correction in Vector Autoregressive Models: A Simulation Study," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, March.
  48. Yin, Libo & Wei, Ya, 2020. "Aggregate profit instability and time variations in momentum returns: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  49. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Chaibi, Anis & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Performance of Canadian hybrid mutual funds," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 124-147.
  50. Wayne Ferson & Junbo L Wang, 2021. "A Panel Regression Approach to Holdings-Based Fund Performance Measures [Multiperiod performance persistence analysis of hedge funds]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 695-734.
  51. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2010. "Predicting Global Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-80, February.
  52. Ilaria Piatti & Fabio Trojani, 2020. "Dividend Growth Predictability and the Price–Dividend Ratio," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 130-158, January.
  53. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
  54. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson, 2010. "Characteristic Timing," NBER Working Papers 15948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Lorenzo Camponovo & O. Scaillet & Fabio Trojani, 2013. "Predictability Hidden by Anomalous Observations," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 13-05, Swiss Finance Institute.
  56. Kurozumi, Eiji & Aono, Kohei, 2013. "Estimation And Inference In Predictive Regressions," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 54(2), pages 231-250, December.
  57. Meng-Chen Hsieh & Clifford Hurvich & Philippe Soulier, 2022. "Long-Horizon Return Predictability from Realized Volatility in Pure-Jump Point Processes," Papers 2202.00793, arXiv.org.
  58. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Predictability Tests Robust against Parameter Instability," Papers 2307.15151, arXiv.org.
  59. Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be a momentum time-series predictor? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 212-239.
  60. Demetrescu, Matei & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Extensions to IVX methods of inference for return predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  61. Fatnassi, Ibrahim & Slim, Chaouachi & Ftiti, Zied & Ben Maatoug, Abderrazek, 2014. "Effects of monetary policy on the REIT returns: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-26.
  62. Nonejad, Nima, 2018. "Déjà vol oil? Predicting S&P 500 equity premium using crude oil price volatility: Evidence from old and recent time-series data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 260-270.
  63. Park, Cheolbeom, 2010. "When does the dividend-price ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 81-101, January.
  64. Qiang Kang & Qiao Liu & Rong Qi, 2010. "Predicting Stock Market Returns with Aggregate Discretionary Accruals," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 815-858, September.
  65. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan G. Timmermann & Rossen I. Valkanov, 2008. "Return Predictability under Equilibrium Constraints on the Equity Premium," Working Papers 37, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
  66. Mikihito Nishi, 2023. "Testing for Stationary or Persistent Coefficient Randomness in Predictive Regressions," Papers 2309.04926, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
  67. Belén Nieto & Gonzalo Rubio, 2007. "Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors," Economics Working Papers 1029, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2007.
  68. Fong, Wai Mun, 2012. "Do expected business conditions explain the value premium?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 181-206.
  69. Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.
  70. Jayetileke, Harshanie L. & Wang, You-Gan & Zhu, Min, 2021. "Predictive regression with p-lags and order-q autoregressive predictors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 282-293.
  71. Peter C.B. Phillips & Ye Chen, "undated". "Restricted Likelihood Ratio Tests in Predictive Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1968, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  72. Henderson, Brian J. & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Weisbach, Michael S., 2006. "World markets for raising new capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 63-101, October.
  73. Chuxuan Xiao & Winifred Huang & David P. Newton, 2024. "Predicting expected idiosyncratic volatility: Empirical evidence from ARFIMA, HAR, and EGARCH models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 979-1006, October.
  74. Michael Johannes & Arthur Korteweg & Nicholas Polson, 2014. "Sequential Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 611-644, April.
  75. Menachem Brenner & Yehuda Izhakian, 2011. "Asset Priving and Ambiguity: Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 11-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  76. Joni Kokkonen & Matti Suominen, 2015. "Hedge Funds and Stock Market Efficiency," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 2890-2904, December.
  77. Boudoukh, Jacob & Israel, Ronen & Richardson, Matthew, 2022. "Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 937-969.
  78. Bali, Turan G., 2008. "The intertemporal relation between expected returns and risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 101-131, January.
  79. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2009. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 162-178, February.
  80. Bessler, Wolfgang & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2007. "Conditional Performance Evaluation for German Mutual Equity Funds," Working papers 2007/22, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  81. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2017. "Predicting international stock returns with conditional price-to-fundamental ratios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 159-184.
  82. Laurent Barras & Patrick Gagliardini & Olivier Scaillet, 2022. "Skill, Scale, and Value Creation in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 601-638, February.
  83. Oleg Kucher & Alexander Kurov, 2014. "Business cycle, storage, and energy prices," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 217-226, November.
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  85. Yoon, Sun-Joong, 2017. "Time-varying risk aversion and return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 327-339.
  86. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2012. "Return predictability and intertemporal asset allocation: Evidence from a bias-adjusted VAR model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-253.
  87. Samuel M. Hartzmark, 2016. "Economic Uncertainty and Interest Rates," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 179-220.
  88. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
  89. Lehnert, Thorsten, 2022. "Flight-to-safety and retail investor behavior," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  90. Nima Nonejad, 2020. "Does the price of crude oil help predict the conditional distribution of aggregate equity return?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 313-349, January.
  91. Lioui, Abraham, 2013. "Time consistent vs. time inconsistent dynamic asset allocation: Some utility cost calculations for mean variance preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1066-1096.
  92. Kolev, Gueorgui I. & Karapandza, Rasa, 2017. "Out-of-sample equity premium predictability and sample split–invariant inference," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 188-201.
  93. Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 127-145.
  94. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2022. "Residual-augmented IVX predictive regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 429-460.
  95. Yakov Amihud & Clifford Hurvich & Yi Wang, 2004. "Hypothesis Testing in Predictive Regressions," Finance 0412022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  96. Jin-Chuan Duan & Weiqi Zhang, 2014. "Forward-Looking Market Risk Premium," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 521-538, February.
  97. Bingduo Yang & Xiaohui Liu & Liang Peng & Zongwu Cai, 2018. "Unified Tests for a Dynamic Predictive Regression," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201808, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2018.
  98. Roi D. Taussig, 2017. "Stickiness of employee expenses and implications for stock returns," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(2), pages 297-309, August.
  99. Ye Chen & Jian Li & Qiyuan Li, 2023. "Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation for VAR Models with Explosive Roots," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 910-937, August.
  100. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2011. "A Class of Robust Tests in Augmented Predictive Regressions," Working Papers w201126, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  101. Gueorgui I. Kolev, 2008. "Forecasting aggregate stock returns using the number of initial public offerings as a predictor," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(13), pages 1-8.
  102. Back, Kerry & Crotty, Kevin & Kazempour, Seyed Mohammad, 2022. "Validity, tightness, and forecasting power of risk premium bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 732-760.
  103. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using dynamic model averaging. Does the state–space representation matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  104. Ghysels, Eric & Pereira, João Pedro, 2008. "Liquidity and conditional portfolio choice: A nonparametric investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 679-699, September.
  105. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Lee, Ji Hyung, 2013. "Predictive regression under various degrees of persistence and robust long-horizon regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 250-264.
  106. David Rey, 2005. "Market Timing And Model Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study For The Swiss Stock Market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(3), pages 239-260, October.
  107. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2021. "Simple tests for stock return predictability with good size and power properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 198-214.
  108. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Choi, Jaewon & Goldstein, Itay, 2021. "Mutual fund flows and fluctuations in credit and business cycles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 84-108.
  109. Malcolm P. Baker & Ryan Taliaferro & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 10823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  110. Su, Zhi & Liu, Peng & Fang, Tong, 2022. "Pandemic-induced fear and stock market returns: Evidence from China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  111. Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. & Papadimitriou, Fotios I. & Vlastakis, Nikolaos, 2018. "Information demand and stock return predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
  112. Cheolbeom Park & Dong-hun Shin, 2014. "Stock Market Predictability: Global Evidence and an Explanation," Discussion Paper Series 1405, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
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  114. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Predicting equity premium out-of-sample by conditioning on newspaper-based uncertainty measures: A comparative study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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  117. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2005. "tay's as good as cay," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-14, March.
  118. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang, 2023. "Cross-sectional uncertainty and expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-340.
  119. Yu, Deshui & Chen, Li & Li, Luyang, 2023. "Time-varying predictability of the long horizon equity premium based on semiparametric regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
  120. Rakovská, Zuzana, 2021. "Composite survey sentiment as a predictor of future market returns: Evidence for German equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 473-495.
  121. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  122. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2011. "The nonlinear effects of expected and unexpected components of monetary policy on the dynamics of REIT returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 911-920, May.
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  124. Brenner, Menachem & Izhakian, Yehuda, 2018. "Asset pricing and ambiguity: Empirical evidence⁎," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 503-531.
  125. Liu, Xiaohui & Yang, Bingduo & Cai, Zongwu & Peng, Liang, 2019. "A unified test for predictability of asset returns regardless of properties of predicting variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 141-159.
  126. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," NBER Working Papers 11841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  127. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2020. "A bootstrap test for predictability of asset returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
  128. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Chen, Li, 2023. "Stock return predictability and cyclical movements in valuation ratios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-53.
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  130. Amihud, Yakov & Noh, Joonki, 2021. "The pricing of the illiquidity factor’s conditional risk with time-varying premium," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  131. Stig V. Møller & Jesper Rangvid, 2012. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," CREATES Research Papers 2012-42, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  132. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2011. "Fixed-income fund performance: Role of luck and ability in tail membership," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 379-392, June.
  133. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2017. "International stock return predictability: Evidence from new statistical tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-113.
  134. Engsted, Tom & Hyde, Stuart & Møller, Stig V., 2010. "Habit formation, surplus consumption and return predictability: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1237-1255, November.
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