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Anticipated Utility and Rational Expectations as Approximations of Bayesian Decision Making

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Cited by:

  1. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2015. "Learning and Model Validation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 45-82.
  2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2012. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations Are Not Rational?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1283, October.
  3. Edward Herbst & David Lopez-Salido & Christopher Gust, 2017. "Forward Guidance with Bayesian Learning and Estimation," 2017 Meeting Papers 1189, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Luzzetti, Matthew N. & Neumuller, Seth, 2016. "Learning and the dynamics of consumer unsecured debt and bankruptcies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 22-39.
  5. William A. Branch & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2010. "Finite Horizon Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-15, University of Oregon Economics Department.
  6. Calvert Jump, Robert & Hommes, Cars & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Learning, heterogeneity, and complexity in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 446-470.
  7. Seppo Honkapohja & Arja H. Turunen-Red & Alan D. Woodland, 2016. "Growth, expectations and tariffs," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1441-1469, November.
  8. Mele, Antonio & Molnár, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2020. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 339-353.
  9. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2014. "Financial innovation, the discovery of risk, and the U.S. credit crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-22.
  10. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified," Papers 2204.11748, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
  11. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
  12. Riccardo M Masolo & Francesca Monti, 2021. "Ambiguity, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 839-871.
  13. F. Di Pace & K. Mitra & S. Zhang, 2021. "Adaptive Learning and Labor Market Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 441-475, March.
  14. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
  15. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
  16. Cars Hommes & Robert Calvert Jump & Paul Levine, 2017. "Internal rationalityuyuyuy, heterogeneity and complexity in the New Keynesian model," Working Papers 20171706, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
  17. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," Working Papers 15-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  18. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2018. "Uncertainty-dependent effects of monetary policy shocks: A new-Keynesian interpretation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 277-296.
  19. Coroneo, Laura & Pastorello, Sergio, 2020. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  20. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
  21. Han, Zhao, 2021. "Low-frequency fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 639-657.
  22. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Modeling The Evolution Of Expectations And Uncertainty In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 717-756, May.
  23. Koulovatianos, Christos & Wieland, Volker, 2011. "Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters," IMFS Working Paper Series 46, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  24. Jessica A. Wachter & Yicheng Zhu, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Announcement Premium," NBER Working Papers 24432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Baranowski, Ryan, 2015. "Adaptive learning and monetary exchange," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
  26. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 85-106.
  27. Nabil Al-Najjar & Jonathan Weinstein, 2015. "A Bayesian model of Knightian uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 78(1), pages 1-22, January.
  28. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2012. "Trend growth expectations and U.S. house prices before and after the crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 394-409.
  29. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
  30. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2015. "The consequences of an unknown debt target," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 76-96.
  31. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  32. Branch, William & McGough, Bruce, 2016. "Heterogeneous beliefs and trading inefficiencies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 786-818.
  33. Michelle L. Barnes & Fabia Gumbau-Brisa & Denny Lie & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2011. "Estimation of forward-looking relationships in closed form: an application to the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Working Papers 11-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  34. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.
  35. Bodo Herzog, 2019. "Dynamic Expectation Theory: Insights for Market Participants," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-14, May.
  36. Holden, Tom, 2008. "Rational macroeconomic learning in linear expectational models," MPRA Paper 10872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Arunima Sinha, 2016. "Learning and the Yield Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 513-547, March.
  38. Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Long-run growth uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80.
  39. Seppo Honkapohja & Arja H. Turunen-Red & Alan D. Woodland, 2016. "Growth, expectations and tariffs," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1441-1469, November.
  40. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 20-14, Bank of Canada.
  41. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2014. "Collateralisation bubbles when investors disagree about risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Xiao, Wei, 2022. "Understanding probabilistic expectations – a behavioral approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  43. John J. Conlon & Laura Pilossoph & Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2018. "Labor Market Search With Imperfect Information and Learning," NBER Working Papers 24988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Sergio Santoro, 2017. "Heterogeneity and learning with complete markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 183-211, June.
  45. Jonas E. Arias & Guido Ascari & Nicola Branzoli & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2014. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation - Comment," International Finance Discussion Papers 1127, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  46. Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2020. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1485-1520, November.
  47. Nahid Masoudi & Marc Santugini & Georges Zaccour, 2016. "A Dynamic Game of Emissions Pollution with Uncertainty and Learning," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(3), pages 349-372, July.
  48. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F., 2014. "Risk aversion, investor information and stock market volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 88-107.
  49. Bullard, James & Suda, Jacek, 2016. "The stability of macroeconomic systems with Bayesian learners," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-16.
  50. William A. Branch & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2010. "Finite Horizon Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-15, University of Oregon Economics Department.
  51. Volkan Hacioglu, 2015. "Bayesian Expectations and Strategic Complementarity: Implications for Macroeconomic Stability," Post-Print hal-01404402, HAL.
  52. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
  53. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
  54. Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 37-47.
  55. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2011_009 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Sinha, Arunima, 2015. "Government debt, learning and the term structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 268-289.
  57. Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2011. "Optimal Disinflation Under Learning," 2011 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  58. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2021. "Learning when to say no," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
  59. Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2011. "Optimal Criminal Behavior and the Disutility of Jail: Theory and Evidence On Bank Robberies," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 220, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  60. Daniel Gregg & John Rolfe, 2018. "Myopia and saliency in renewable resource management," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(3), pages 394-419, July.
  61. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Fan Yang, 2010. "On the Relative Pricing of long Maturity S&P 500 Index Options and CDX Tranches," NBER Working Papers 15734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Beckert Jens, 2018. "Woher kommen Erwartungen?: Die soziale Strukturierung imaginierter Zukünfte," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 59(2), pages 507-523, May.
  63. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Michael Johannes & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2016. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 664-698, March.
  64. Özge Dilaver & Robert Calvert Jump & Paul Levine, 2018. "Agent‐Based Macroeconomics And Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models: Where Do We Go From Here?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1134-1159, September.
  65. Martin Eichenbaum, 2023. "On the limits of rational expectations for policy analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1221-1237, November.
  66. Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  67. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.
  68. Gerba, Eddie & Żochowski, Dawid, 2017. "Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles," Working Paper Series 2068, European Central Bank.
  69. Fabio Milani, 2012. "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: A Survey," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 3-38, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  70. Vidakovic, Neven, 2014. "Exchange rate regime and household's choice of debt," MPRA Paper 54219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  71. Bruce Preston, 2013. "Comment on "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 47-58, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo & Strack, Philipp, 2023. "Pathwise concentration bounds for Bayesian beliefs," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(4), November.
  73. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Winkler, Fabian, 2022. "Learning and misperception of makeup strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  74. Ivan Rudik & Derek Lemoine & Maxwell Rosenthal, 2018. "General Bayesian Learning in Dynamic Stochastic Models: Estimating the Value of Science Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  75. Martin Bodenstein & James Hebden & Fabian Winkler, 2019. "Learning and Misperception: Implications for Price-Level Targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  76. Christopher J. Gust & J. David López-Salido, 2024. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Uncertain Private Sector Foresight," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  77. Christos Koulovatianos, 2015. "Strategic Exploitation of a Common-Property Resource Under Rational Learning About its Reproduction," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 94-119, March.
  78. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
  79. Yang Lu & Michael Siemer, 2013. "Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-85, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  80. Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2013. "E-stability in the stochastic Ramsey model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 407-410.
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