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The Favourite‐Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football betting

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Cited by:

  1. Jinook Jeong & Jee Young Kim & Yoon Jae Ro, 2019. "On the efficiency of racetrack betting market: a new test for the favourite-longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(54), pages 5817-5828, November.
  2. Maschke Mario & Schmidt Ulrich, 2011. "Das Wettmonopol in Deutschland: Status quo und Reformansätze," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 110-124, April.
  3. David Forrest & Ian Mchale, 2007. "Anyone for Tennis (Betting)?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 751-768.
  4. Yu, Dian & Gao, Jianjun & Wang, Tongyao, 2022. "Betting market equilibrium with heterogeneous beliefs: A prospect theory-based model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 137-151.
  5. Bruno Deschamps, 2008. "Betting Markets Efficiency: Evidence From European Football," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(1), pages 66-76, May.
  6. Fischer, Kai & Haucap, Justus, 2020. "Betting market efficiency in the presence of unfamiliar shocks: The case of ghost games during the COVID-19 pandemic," DICE Discussion Papers 349, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  7. Peter Dawson & Stephen Dobson & John Goddard & John Wilson, 2007. "Are football referees really biased and inconsistent?: evidence on the incidence of disciplinary sanction in the English Premier League," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(1), pages 231-250, January.
  8. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021. "Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.
  10. Whelan, Karl & Hegarty, Tadgh, 2023. "Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets," MPRA Paper 116925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Salvatore Caruso & Giuseppe Pernagallo, 2021. "On the efficiency of online soccer betting markets: a new methodology based on symbolic series," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1451-1460.
  12. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
  13. Alexis Direr, 2013. "Are betting markets efficient? Evidence from European Football Championships," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 343-356, January.
  14. Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(2), pages 75-95, May.
  15. Frank Daumann & Markus Breuer, 2011. "The Role of Information in Professional Football and the German Football Betting Market," Chapters, in: Wladimir Andreff (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Sports Economics, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  16. Andrei Shynkevich, 2022. "Informational efficiency of football transfer market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 1032-1039.
  17. Ruud H. Koning & Renske Zijm, 2023. "Betting market efficiency and prediction in binary choice models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 135-148, June.
  18. Michels, Rouven & Ötting, Marius & Langrock, Roland, 2023. "Bettors’ reaction to match dynamics: Evidence from in-game betting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1118-1127.
  19. Singleton, Carl & Reade, J. James & Brown, Alasdair, 2020. "Going with your gut: The (In)accuracy of forecast revisions in a football score prediction game," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  20. Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Stekler, Herman O., 2010. "Sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 445-447, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
  21. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Are sports betting markets semistrong efficient? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 387, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  22. Goto, Shingo & Yamada, Toru, 2023. "What drives biased odds in sports betting markets: Bettors’ irrationality and the role of bookmakers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 252-270.
  23. Franck, Egon & Verbeek, Erwin & Nüesch, Stephan, 2010. "Prediction accuracy of different market structures -- bookmakers versus a betting exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 448-459, July.
  24. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  25. Gustav Axén & Dominic Cortis, 2020. "Hedging on Betting Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, August.
  26. J Reade & C Singleton & L Vaughan Williams, 2020. "Betting Markets for English Premier League Results and Scorelines: Evaluating a Simple Forecasting Model," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(1), pages 87-106, March.
  27. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2009. "Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 55-72.
  28. Cecilia Nwigwe & S.A. Yusuf & V.O. Okoruwa, 2012. "Determinants of Demand for Gambling/Office Football Pool Betting in Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(2), pages 69-81, August.
  29. Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & David Matthews & Charles Sutcliffe, 2012. "Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club's share price," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3435-3452, September.
  30. Jaume García & Levi Pérez & Plácido Rodríguez, 2017. "Forecasting football match results: are the many smarter than the few?," Chapters, in: Plácido Rodríguez & Brad R. Humphreys & Robert Simmons (ed.), The Economics of Sports Betting, chapter 5, pages 71-91, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  31. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
  32. Karl Whelan, 2024. "Risk aversion and favourite–longshot bias in a competitive fixed‐odds betting market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 188-209, January.
  33. Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.
  34. Hassett Kevin A. & Zhong Weifeng, 2021. "On the Observational Implications of Knightian Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 115-147, January.
  35. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
  36. David Winkelmann & Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2024. "Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 54-97, January.
  37. Nilsson, Håkan & Andersson, Patric, 2010. "Making the seemingly impossible appear possible: Effects of conjunction fallacies in evaluations of bets on football games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 172-180, April.
  38. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2012. "Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League," MPRA Paper 40998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.
  40. del Corral, Julio & Prieto-Rodríguez, Juan, 2010. "Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 551-563, July.
  41. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2015. "Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues," MPRA Paper 66414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  42. Dominic Cortis & Steve Hales & Frank Bezzina, 2013. "Profiting On Inefficiencies In Betting Derivative Markets: The Case Of Uefa Euro 2012," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 7(1), pages 39-51.
  43. Roman Malaric & Tomislav Katic & Dubravko Sabolic, 2007. "The market efficiency of the soccer fixed odds internet betting market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 171-174.
  44. David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2005. "Forecasting outcomes in spread betting markets: can bettors use 'quarbs' to beat the book?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 139-154.
  45. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2022. "Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 294-316, May.
  46. Fry, John & Hastings, Tom & Serbera, Jean-Philippe, 2017. "An analytically solvable model for soccer: further implications of the classical Poisson model," MPRA Paper 82458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. David Winkelmann & Christian Deutscher & Marius Ötting, 2021. "Bookmakers’ mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(26), pages 3054-3064, June.
  48. Jiří LahviÄ ka, 2015. "Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Calculate Match Importance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 390-409, May.
  49. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
  50. Bruno Deschamps & Olivier Gergaud, 2007. "Efficiency in Betting Markets: Evidence from English Football," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 61-73, February.
  51. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2019. "Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer leagues," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 239-246.
  52. Goddard, John, 2005. "Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 331-340.
  53. Franke, Maximilian, 2020. "Do market participants misprice lottery-type assets? Evidence from the European soccer betting market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-18.
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