IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/116925.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Whelan, Karl
  • Hegarty, Tadgh

Abstract

We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win or a draw as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019), in particular that there is a strong pattern of favourite-longshot bias. Conversely, we document how a betting market that has emerged in recent years, the Asian handicap market, can generate efficient forecasts for the same set of matches using a new methodology for mapping its odds into probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Whelan, Karl & Hegarty, Tadgh, 2023. "Forecasting Soccer Matches With Betting Odds: A Tale of Two Markets," MPRA Paper 116925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:116925
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/116925/1/MPRA_paper_116925.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tadgh Hegarty, 2021. "Information and price efficiency in the absence of home crowd advantage," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(21), pages 1902-1907, December.
    2. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca, 2019. "Efficiency of online football betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 712-721.
    3. Whelan, Karl & Hegarty, Tadgh, 2023. "Calculating The Bookmaker's Margin: Why Bets Lose More On Average Than You Are Warned," MPRA Paper 116924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gray, Philip K & Gray, Stephen F, 1997. "Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence from the NFL Sports Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1725-1737, September.
    5. Michael Cain & David Law & David Peel, 2000. "The Favourite‐Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football betting," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 25-36, February.
    6. Berkowitz, Jason P. & Depken, Craig A. & Gandar, John M., 2017. "A favorite-longshot bias in fixed-odds betting markets: Evidence from college basketball and college football," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 233-239.
    7. repec:bla:econom:v:56:y:1989:i:223:p:323-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Do Gamblers Understand Complex Bets? Evidence From Asian Handicap Betting on Soccer," MPRA Paper 117244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Karl Whelan, 2024. "Risk aversion and favourite–longshot bias in a competitive fixed‐odds betting market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 188-209, January.
    3. Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Fortune's Formula or the Road to Ruin? The Generalized Kelly Criterion With Multiple Outcomes," MPRA Paper 116927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Disagreement and Market Structure in Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence from European Soccer," CEPR Discussion Papers 18144, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2024. "Comparing Two Methods for Testing the Efficiency of Sports Betting Markets," MPRA Paper 121382, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Are sports betting markets semistrong efficient? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 387, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    2. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2022. "Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 294-316, May.
    3. David Winkelmann & Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2024. "Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 54-97, January.
    4. Dagaev, Dmitry & Stoyan, Egor, 2020. "Parimutuel betting on the eSports duels: Evidence of the reverse favourite-longshot bias," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
    6. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    7. Salvatore Caruso & Giuseppe Pernagallo, 2021. "On the efficiency of online soccer betting markets: a new methodology based on symbolic series," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1451-1460.
    8. David Winkelmann & Christian Deutscher & Marius Ötting, 2021. "Bookmakers’ mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(26), pages 3054-3064, June.
    9. Jinook Jeong & Jee Young Kim & Yoon Jae Ro, 2019. "On the efficiency of racetrack betting market: a new test for the favourite-longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(54), pages 5817-5828, November.
    10. J Reade & C Singleton & L Vaughan Williams, 2020. "Betting Markets for English Premier League Results and Scorelines: Evaluating a Simple Forecasting Model," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(1), pages 87-106, March.
    11. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2020. "Betting Market Efficiency in the Presence of Unfamiliar Shocks: The Case of Ghost Games during the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 8526, CESifo.
    12. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Disagreement and Market Structure in Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence from European Soccer," MPRA Paper 117243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021. "Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.
    14. Dmitry Dagaev & Egor Stoyan, 2019. "Parimutuel Betting On The Esports Duels: Reverse Favourite-Longshot Bias And Its Determinants," HSE Working papers WP BRP 216/EC/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    15. Ruud H. Koning & Renske Zijm, 2023. "Betting market efficiency and prediction in binary choice models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 135-148, June.
    16. Rebeggiani, Luca & Gross, Johannes, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181563, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
    18. Karl Whelan, 2024. "Risk aversion and favourite–longshot bias in a competitive fixed‐odds betting market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 188-209, January.
    19. Wunderlich, Fabian & Memmert, Daniel, 2020. "Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 713-722.
    20. David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sports Forecasting; Betting Markets; Market Efficiency; Asian Handicap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:116925. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.