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Bookmakers' mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break

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  • Christian Deutscher
  • David Winkelmann
  • Marius Otting

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 in March 2020 led to a shutdown of economic activities in Europe. This included the sports sector, since public gatherings were prohibited. The German Bundesliga was among the first sport leagues realising a restart without spectators. Several recent studies suggest that the home advantage of teams was eroded for the remaining matches. Our paper analyses the reaction by bookmakers to the disappearance of such home advantage. We show that bookmakers had problems to adjust the betting odds in accordance to the disappeared home advantage, opening opportunities for profitable betting strategies.

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  • Christian Deutscher & David Winkelmann & Marius Otting, 2020. "Bookmakers' mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break," Papers 2008.05417, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2008.05417
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Alex Bryson & Peter Dolton & J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton, 2021. "What we can learn about economics from professional sport during Covid-19," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 525, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. D'avid Zolt'an Szab'o & Diego Andr'es P'erez, 2021. "Does home advantage without crowd exist in American football?," Papers 2104.11595, arXiv.org.

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