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Forecasting football match results: are the many smarter than the few?

In: The Economics of Sports Betting

Author

Listed:
  • Jaume García
  • Levi Pérez
  • Plácido Rodríguez

Abstract

In this chapter the authors pose the fundamental question of whether bookmaker probabilities offer superior predictions of match outcomes to bettors themselves. Their test case is Spanish football and the comparison gamblers are football pools bettors who play a game where they forecast match outcomes. The authors find, first, that there is a favourite-longshot bias in Spanish fixed-odds football results betting and second, bookmakers’ predictions outperform those of football pools bettors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaume García & Levi Pérez & Plácido Rodríguez, 2017. "Forecasting football match results: are the many smarter than the few?," Chapters, in: Plácido Rodríguez & Brad R. Humphreys & Robert Simmons (ed.), The Economics of Sports Betting, chapter 5, pages 71-91, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:16946_5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    7. Jaume García & Plácido Rodríguez, 2007. "The Demand for Football Pools in Spain," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(4), pages 335-354, August.
    8. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2011. "The Reverse Favorite-Longshot Bias in the National Hockey League: Do Bettors Still Score on Longshots?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(1), pages 106-117, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics and Finance;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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