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Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Silhan, Peter A., 2014. "Income smoothing from a Census X-12 perspective," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 106-115.
  2. Yorghos Tripodis & Jeremy Penzer, 2009. "Modelling time series with season-dependent autocorrelation structure," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 559-574.
  3. M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2003. "Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-071/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Ivan Roberts & Graham White, 2015. "Seasonal Adjustment of Chinese Economic Statistics," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-13, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  5. Proietti, Tommaso & Riani, Marco, 2007. "Transformations and Seasonal Adjustment: Analytic Solutions and Case Studies," MPRA Paper 7862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Planas, Christophe, 2002. "Seasonal Adjustment with the X-11 Method: Dominique Ladiray and Benoit Quenneville, Lecture Notes in Statistics, 2001, New York: Springer-Verlag, pp.260. [UK pound]48, $59.95, ISBN 0-387-95171-7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 467-468.
  7. Peter Armitage & Cho Ng & Peter C. Young, 1989. "A systems approach to recursive economic forecasting and seasonal adjustment," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 8, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Andrés Bujosa Brun & Marcos Bujosa Brun & Antonio García-Ferrer, 2013. "Mathematical framework for pseudo-spectra of linear stochastic difference equations," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-13, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised May 2015.
  9. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S & Siklos, Pierre L, 1993. "On the (Mis)Specification of Seasonality and Its Consequences: An Empirical Investigation with U.S. Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 747-760.
  10. Tommaso Proietti & Marco Riani, 2009. "Transformations and seasonal adjustment," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 47-69, January.
  11. Krane, Spencer & Wascher, William, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 523-553, December.
  12. McElroy, Tucker S. & Politis, Dimitris N., 2014. "Spectral density and spectral distribution inference for long memory time series via fixed-b asymptotics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 211-225.
  13. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil Kashyap & David Wilcox, 1995. "Why Firms Smooth Seasonals in a Boom," Working Papers 001, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  14. Buono, Dario & Alpay, Kocak, 2010. "Backward recalculation of seasonal series affected by economic crisis: a Model-Based-Link method for the case of Turkish GDP," MPRA Paper 40092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. del Barrio Castro, Tomas & Pons Fanals, Ernest & Surinach Caralt, Jordi, 2002. "The effects of working with seasonally adjusted data when testing for unit root," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 249-256, April.
  16. Hahn Shik Lee & Eric Ghysels & William R. Bell, 2002. "Seasonal Time Series and Autocorrelation Function Estimation," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(5), pages 651-665, September.
  17. Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005. "Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
  18. Hayat, Aziz & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2013. "Masking of volatility by seasonal adjustment methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 676-688.
  19. Diego Bodas & Juan Ramon Garcia & Juan Murillo & Matias Pacce & Tomasa Rodrigo & Juan de Dios Romero & Pep Ruiz & Camilo Ulloa & Heribert Valero, 2018. "Measuring Retail Trade Using Card Transactional Data," Working Papers 18/03, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  20. F. Javier TRIVEZ & Angel Mauricio REYES & F. Javier ALIAGA, 2009. "MEXICAN MAQUILA INDUSTRY OUTLOOK. A Quantitative Space-Time Analysis," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
  21. Travis D. Nesmith, 2007. "Rational Seasonality," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Functional Structure Inference, pages 227-255, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  22. Barnett, William A. & de Peretti, Philippe, 2009. "Admissible Clustering Of Aggregator Components: A Necessary And Sufficient Stochastic Seminonparametric Test For Weak Separability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S2), pages 317-334, September.
  23. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2016. "Seasonal adjustment of Indian macroeconomic time-series," Working Papers 16/160, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  24. Amirhossein Sohrabbeig & Omid Ardakanian & Petr Musilek, 2023. "Decompose and Conquer: Time Series Forecasting with Multiseasonal Trend Decomposition Using Loess," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-13, December.
  25. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.
  26. Thornton, Michael A., 2013. "Removing seasonality under a changing regime: Filtering new car sales," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 4-14.
  27. Barend Abeln & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2023. "CAMPLET: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions, chapter 0, pages 7-29, Springer.
  28. McElroy Tucker S. & Maravall Agustin, 2014. "Optimal Signal Extraction with Correlated Components," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 237-273, July.
  29. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, April.
  30. Daniel Dzikowski & Carsten Jentsch, 2024. "Structural Periodic Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2401.14545, arXiv.org.
  31. Irma Hindrayanto & Jan Jacobs & Denise Osborn, 2014. "On trend-cycle-seasonal interactions," DNB Working Papers 417, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  32. Behm, Svenia & Haupt, Harry, 2020. "Predictability of hourly nitrogen dioxide concentration," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 428(C).
  33. Maravall, Agustin & Planas, Christophe, 1999. "Estimation error and the specification of unobserved component models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 325-353, October.
  34. Bollerslev, Tim & Ghysels, Eric, 1996. "Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 139-151, April.
  35. McElroy, Tucker S. & Jach, Agnieszka, 2023. "Identification of the differencing operator of a non-stationary time series via testing for zeroes in the spectral density," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
  36. Michael Fung, 2013. "A trade-off between non-fundamental risk and incentives," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 29-51, July.
  37. Antonio Matas-Mir & Denise R. Osborn & Marco J. Lombardi, 2008. "The effect of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle regimes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 257-278.
  38. Trimbur Thomas & McElroy Tucker, 2017. "Signal Extraction for Nonstationary Time Series with Diverse Sampling Rules," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, January.
  39. Ghysels, Eric, 1994. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 289-298, July.
  40. Jang Hyung Cho & Robert T. Daigler, 2012. "An unbiased autoregressive conditional intraday seasonal variance filtering process," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 231-247, October.
  41. Cho, Sungwon, 1998. "Time-series implications of the permanent income hypothesis on durable goods consumption," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000012849, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  42. Martelotte Marcela Cohen & Souza Reinaldo Castro & Silva Eduardo Antônio Barros da, 2017. "Design of Seasonal Adjustment Filter Robust to Variations in the Seasonal Behaviour of Time Series," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 33(1), pages 155-186, March.
  43. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses 0115, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
  44. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & Irma Hindrayanto, 2009. "Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to US Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 683-713, October.
  45. Tommaso Proietti, 2012. "Seasonality, Forecast Extensions And Business Cycle Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 555-569, September.
  46. Angyal (Apolzan), Carmen-Maria & Aniş, Cecilia–Nicoleta, 2012. "Stock Market Cycles and Future Trend Estimation," MPRA Paper 40332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. García, Juan R. & Pacce, Matías & Rodrigo, Tomasa & Ruiz de Aguirre, Pep & Ulloa, Camilo A., 2021. "Measuring and forecasting retail trade in real time using card transactional data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1235-1246.
  48. James E Payne & Saban Nazlioglu & Andrea Mervar, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and international tourist arrivals: A disaggregated analysis of the Croatian Adriatic coast," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 986-1004, June.
  49. Eric Ghysels, 1993. "A time series model with periodic stochastic regime switching," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  50. Ghysels, Eric & Granger, Clive W J & Siklos, Pierre L, 1996. "Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 374-386, July.
  51. Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2005. "Variance ratio tests of the seasonal unit root hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 33-54, January.
  52. Wildi, Marc & McElroy, Tucker S., 2019. "The trilemma between accuracy, timeliness and smoothness in real-time signal extraction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1072-1084.
  53. W. Erwin Diewert, 1995. "Price and Volume Measures in the System of National Accounts," NBER Working Papers 5103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Edward E. Leamer, 2011. "Workday, Holiday and Calendar Adjustment with 21st Century Data: Monthly Aggregates from Daily Diesel Fuel Purchases," NBER Working Papers 16897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Thury, Gerhard & Witt, Stephen F., 1998. "Forecasting industrial production using structural time series models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 751-767, December.
  56. S.M.Husnain Bokhari & Ishaque Ahmed Ansari, 2009. "Seasonal Adjustment Of Some Financial Indicators Of Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 5(2), pages 107-123.
  57. Theodosiou, Marina, 2011. "Forecasting monthly and quarterly time series using STL decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1178-1195, October.
  58. Barend Abeln & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, 2015. "Seasonal adjustment with and without revisions: A comparison of X-13ARIMA-SEATS and CAMPLET," CIRANO Working Papers 2015s-35, CIRANO.
  59. Abdur Chowdhury, 1995. "The demand for money in a small open economy: The case of Switzerland," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 131-144, April.
  60. Fok, D. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 2005. "Performance of Seasonal Adjustment Procedures: Simulation and Empirical Results," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-30, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  61. Arash Jamalmanesh & Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi & Ahmad Seifi & Mohammad Ali Falahi, 2018. "Prediction of Hydropower Energy Price Using G mes-Maravall Seasonal Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 81-88.
  62. Maravall, Agustín, 1999. "Short-term and long-term trends, seasonal and the business cycle," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6291, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  63. Tucker McElroy & Anindya Roy, 2022. "A Review of Seasonal Adjustment Diagnostics," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 90(2), pages 259-284, August.
  64. Huang, Tai-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2002. "Seasonal cointegration and cross-equation restrictions on a forward-looking buffer stock model of money demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 11-46, November.
  65. Kubota, Keiichi & Tokunaga, Toshifumi & Wada, Kenji, 2008. "Consumption behavior, asset returns, and risk aversion: Evidence from the Japanese household survey," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-18, January.
  66. A Matas-Mir & D R Osborn, 2003. "Seasonal Adjustment and the Detection of Business Cycle Phases," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0304, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  67. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian & Marc Nerlove, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  68. Fonteny, E., 2006. "La désaisonnalisation des séries d’agrégats monétaires et de crédit à la Banque de France : aspects théoriques et mise en oeuvre," Working papers 147, Banque de France.
  69. Maravall, Agustín, 1999. "Seasonal outliers in time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6333, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  70. Tomas del Barrio Castro & Denise R. Osborn, 2006. "A Random Walk through Seasonal Adjustment: Noninvertible Moving Averages and Unit Root Tests," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0612, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  71. William P. Cleveland, 2002. "Estimated variance of seasonally adjusted series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  72. Susi Gorbey & Doug James & Jacques Poot, 1999. "Population Forecasting with Endogenous Migration: An Application to Trans-Tasman Migration," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 22(1), pages 69-101, April.
  73. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
  74. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
  75. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
  76. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2008. "Early warnings of inflation in India," Working Papers 08/54, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  77. Fiona MacPhail, 1998. "Moving Beyond Statistical Validity in Economics," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 119-149, November.
  78. Webel, Karsten, 2016. "A data-driven selection of an appropriate seasonal adjustment approach," Discussion Papers 07/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  79. Zhang, G. Peter & Qi, Min, 2005. "Neural network forecasting for seasonal and trend time series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 501-514, January.
  80. Agustín Maravall Herrero & Domingo Pérez Cañete, 2011. "Applying and interpreting model-based seasonal adjustment. The euro-area industrial production series," Working Papers 1116, Banco de España.
  81. McElroy Tucker, 2021. "A Diagnostic for Seasonality Based Upon Polynomial Roots of ARMA Models," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(2), pages 367-394, June.
  82. Mendez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Seasonal Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in agricultural time series: Monthly exports and domestic supply in Argentina," MPRA Paper 63831, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2015.
  83. S. M. Husnain Bokhari & Ishaque Ahmed Ansari, 2009. "Seasonal Adjustment Of Some Financial Indicators Of Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 5(2), pages 5-3.
  84. Taylor, A. M. Robert, 1997. "On the practical problems of computing seasonal unit root tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 307-318, September.
  85. Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Model Selection and Out-of-Sample Performance: the Swiss CPI Series," Working Papers 0014, Banco de España.
  86. Cleveland William P., 2004. "Stability and Consistency of Seasonally Adjusted Aggregates and Their Component Patterns," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-19, May.
  87. Carmen Maria Angyal, 2012. "The Study of Correlation between Stock Market Dynamics and Real Economy," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(31), pages 14-22, May.
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