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Pricing Forward Contracts in Power Markets by the Certainty Equivalence Principle: Explaining the Sign of the Market Risk Premium

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Maryniak, Paweł & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Carbon pricing and electricity markets — The case of the Australian Clean Energy Bill," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 45-58.
  2. Gang-Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Seow Ong, 2012. "Optimal Portfolio Choices, House Risk Hedging and the Pricing of Forward House Transactions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, June.
  3. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Inference for Markov-regime switching models of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  4. Groll, Andreas & López-Cabrera, Brenda & Meyer-Brandis, Thilo, 2014. "A consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  5. Benth, Fred Espen & Biegler-König, Richard & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2013. "An empirical study of the information premium on electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 55-77.
  6. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  7. Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
  8. Marckhoff, Jan & Wimschulte, Jens, 2009. "Locational price spreads and the pricing of contracts for difference: Evidence from the Nordic market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 257-268, March.
  9. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  10. Wieger Hinderks & Ralf Korn & Andreas Wagner, 2020. "Unifying the theory of storage and the risk premium by an unobservable intrinsic electricity price," Papers 2011.03987, arXiv.org.
  11. Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2008. "Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1116-1157, May.
  12. Huisman, Ronald & Kilic, Mehtap, 2012. "Electricity Futures Prices: Indirect Storability, Expectations, and Risk Premiums," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 892-898.
  13. Dennis Frestad & Fred Espen Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2010. "Modeling Term Structure Dynamics in the Nordic Electricity Swap Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 31(2), pages 53-86, April.
  14. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in electricity wholesale spot markets: empirical evidence from Germany," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-11, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
  15. Juan Ignacio Pe~na & Rosa Rodriguez, 2022. "Time-zero Efficiency of European Power Derivatives Markets," Papers 2202.01737, arXiv.org.
  16. Wei Wei & Asger Lunde, 2020. "Identifying Risk Factors and Their Premia: A Study on Electricity Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  17. Wei Wei & Asger Lunde, 2023. "Identifying Risk Factors and Their Premia: A Study on Electricity Prices," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 1647-1679.
  18. Ren'e Aid & Dylan Possamai & Nizar Touzi, 2018. "Optimal electricity demand response contracting with responsiveness incentives," Papers 1810.09063, arXiv.org, revised May 2019.
  19. Dwight Jaffee & Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2019. "Energy Factors, Leasing Structure and the Market Price of Office Buildings in the U.S," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 329-371, October.
  20. Hinz, Juri & Yee, Jeremy, 2018. "Optimal forward trading and battery control under renewable electricity generation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 244-254.
  21. Fred Espen Benth & Claudia Kluppelberg & Gernot Muller & Linda Vos, 2012. "Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models," Papers 1201.1151, arXiv.org.
  22. Weron, Rafał & Zator, Michał, 2014. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 178-190.
  23. Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kettler, 2010. "Dynamic copula models for the spark spread," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 407-421.
  24. Gr'egory Benmenzer & Emmanuel Gobet & C'eline J'erusalem, 2007. "Arbitrage free cointegrated models in gas and oil future markets," Papers 0712.3537, arXiv.org.
  25. Almut E. D. Veraart & Luitgard A. M. Veraart, 2013. "Risk premia in energy markets," CREATES Research Papers 2013-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  26. Lindell, Andreas & Raab, Mikael, 2009. "Strips of hourly power options--Approximate hedging using average-based forward contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 348-355, May.
  27. Rubin, Ofir D. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2011. "A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2711-2721, May.
  28. Daskalakis, George & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Are electricity risk premia affected by emission allowance prices? Evidence from the EEX, Nord Pool and Powernext," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2594-2604, July.
  29. Claudio Monteiro & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado, 2020. "Predictive Trading Strategy for Physical Electricity Futures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-24, July.
  30. Viehmann, Johannes, 2011. "Risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 386-394, January.
  31. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagen, Liv Aune & Nygård, Maria Tandberg & Smith-Sivertsen, Ragnhild & Sollie, Johan M., 2015. "The overnight risk premium in electricity forward contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 293-300.
  32. repec:dui:wpaper:1504 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  34. Christian Redl & Derek Bunn, 2013. "Determinants of the premium in forward contracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 90-111, January.
  35. Fred Espen Benth & Salvador Ortiz-Latorre, 2014. "A change of measure preserving the affine structure in the BNS model for commodity markets," Papers 1403.5236, arXiv.org.
  36. Carlos Pinho & Mara Madaleno, 2011. "Links between spot and futures allowances: ECX and EEX markets comparison," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(2/3/4), pages 101-131.
  37. Fred Espen Benth & Marco Piccirilli & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2017. "Additive energy forward curves in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework," Papers 1709.03310, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
  38. Benth, Fred Espen & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Nazarova, Anna, 2012. "A critical empirical study of three electricity spot price models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1589-1616.
  39. Ke Wan & Alain Kornhauser, 2023. "Market Making and Pricing of Financial Derivatives based on Road Travel Times," Papers 2305.02523, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
  40. Fred Benth & Jukka Lempa, 2014. "Optimal portfolios in commodity futures markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 407-430, April.
  41. Giuseppe Benedetti & Luciano Campi, 2013. "Utility indifference valuation for non-smooth payoffs with an application to power derivatives," Papers 1307.4591, arXiv.org.
  42. Bunn, Derek W. & Chen, Dipeng, 2013. "The forward premium in electricity futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-186.
  43. Jesús M. López-Lezama & David Tobón-Orozco & Esteban Velilla & Jorge Barrientos & Fernando Villada, 2018. "Long-term seasonal forwards in electricity generation markets: an application to Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 37(74), pages 314-287, July.
  44. Iván Blanco, Juan Ignacio Peña, and Rosa Rodriguez, 2018. "Modelling Electricity Swaps with Stochastic Forward Premium Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  45. Joanna Janczura, 2014. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model: a risk premium approach," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 79(1), pages 1-30, February.
  46. Spodniak, Petr & Collan, Mikael, 2018. "Forward risk premia in long-term transmission rights: The case of electricity price area differentials (EPAD) in the Nordic electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 194-206.
  47. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2008. "Stochastic Modeling of Electricity and Related Markets," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6811, September.
  48. Fred Espen Benth & Salvador Ortiz-Latorre, 2013. "A pricing measure to explain the risk premium in power markets," Papers 1308.3378, arXiv.org.
  49. María Dolores Furió & Vicente Meneu, 2009. "Expectations and Forward Risk Premium in the Spanish Power Market," Working Papers. Serie AD 2009-02, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  50. Kurucak, Abdurrahman & Shcherbakova, Anastasia, 2016. "Estimating the hedging value of an energy exchange in Turkey to a retail power consumer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
  51. Rick Steinert & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Short- to Mid-term Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Using Futures," Papers 1801.10583, arXiv.org.
  52. Bonaldo, Cinzia & Caporin, Massimiliano & Fontini, Fulvio, 2022. "The relationship between day-ahead and future prices in electricity markets: An empirical analysis on Italy, France, Germany, and Switzerland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  53. Hepperger, Peter, 2012. "Hedging electricity swaptions using partial integro-differential equations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 600-622.
  54. Jacobs, Kris & Li, Yu & Pirrong, Craig, 2022. "Supply, demand, and risk premiums in electricity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  55. Kallabis, Thomas & Pape, Christian & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 280-290.
  56. Groll, Andreas & López-Cabrera, Brenda & Meyer-Brandis, Thilo, 2016. "A consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 112-126.
  57. Ricardo M. Lima & Antonio J. Conejo & Loïc Giraldi & Olivier Le Maître & Ibrahim Hoteit & Omar M. Knio, 2022. "Risk-Averse Stochastic Programming vs. Adaptive Robust Optimization: A Virtual Power Plant Application," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 1795-1818, May.
  58. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
  59. Ming Pu & Gang-Zhi Fan & Seow Ong, 2012. "Heterogeneous Agents and the Indifference Pricing of Property Index Linked Swaps," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 543-569, May.
  60. Xiong, Heng & Mamon, Rogemar, 2019. "A higher-order Markov chain-modulated model for electricity spot-price dynamics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 495-515.
  61. Petr Spodniak & Mikael Collan & Mari Makkonen, 2017. "On Long-Term Transmission Rights in the Nordic Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, March.
  62. Ren'e Aid & Ofelia Bonesini & Giorgia Callegaro & Luciano Campi, 2021. "A McKean-Vlasov game of commodity production, consumption and trading," Papers 2111.04391, arXiv.org.
  63. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
  64. Furió, Dolores & Meneu, Vicente, 2010. "Expectations and forward risk premium in the Spanish deregulated power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 784-793, February.
  65. Frestad, Dennis, 2012. "Liquidity and dirty hedging in the Nordic electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1341-1355.
  66. Asger Lunde & Kasper V. Olesen, 2014. "Modeling and Forecasting the Distribution of Energy Forward Returns - Evidence from the Nordic Power Exchange," CREATES Research Papers 2013-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  67. Weron, Rafal & Janczura, Joanna, 2010. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity wholesale market prices," MPRA Paper 26628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Estevão, João & Raposo, Clara, 2018. "The impact of the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework Agreement on electricity prices in MIBEL: A mixed-methods approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 411-417.
  69. Ruoyang Li & Alva Svoboda & Shmuel Oren, 2015. "Efficiency impact of convergence bidding in the california electricity market," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 245-284, December.
  70. Peña, Juan Ignacio & Rodriguez, Rosa, 2016. "Time-zero efficiency of European power derivatives markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 253-268.
  71. Tat Andrejus Ngujen, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation: The Case of Lithuania," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 97(1), pages 76-86, January.
  72. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in the German electricity futures market," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-07, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
  73. Chevallier, Julien, 2010. "Modelling risk premia in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 717-729, May.
  74. Joanna Janczura, 2012. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model," Papers 1203.5442, arXiv.org.
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