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Supply, demand, and risk premiums in electricity markets

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  • Jacobs, Kris
  • Li, Yu
  • Pirrong, Craig

Abstract

We model the impact of supply and demand on risk premiums in electricity futures, using daily data for 2003–2014. The model provides a satisfactory fit and allows for unspanned economic risk not embedded in futures prices. Model-implied spot risk premiums and forward biases are large, negative, highly time-varying, and exhibit plausible seasonal patterns. They differ from existing models, especially in periods of market turmoil, have not decreased in size over time, and help predict future returns. Both demand and supply have an economically significant impact on risk premiums. The risk premium associated with supply is characterized by large positive outliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacobs, Kris & Li, Yu & Pirrong, Craig, 2022. "Supply, demand, and risk premiums in electricity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:135:y:2022:i:c:s0378426621003411
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity futures; Economic determinants; Supply; Demand; Risk premium; Unspanned risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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