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Expectations and Forward Risk Premium in the Spanish Power Market

Author

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  • María Dolores Furió

    (Universitat de València)

  • Vicente Meneu

    (Universitat de València)

Abstract

To analyse the forward risk premium in the Spanish electricity market, we adopt not only an ex post approach, but also an ex ante. We find that the sign of the ex post forward premium depends on the unexpected variation in demand and on the unexpected variation in the hydro-energy capacity, and that the ex ante forward premium varies with the expected demand in tight market conditions, showing that the participation of forward dealing agents in the Spanish market responds to risk considerations. Moreover, we find support for the implications derived from the Bessembinder & Lemmon (2002) equilibrium model.

Suggested Citation

  • María Dolores Furió & Vicente Meneu, 2009. "Expectations and Forward Risk Premium in the Spanish Power Market," Working Papers. Serie AD 2009-02, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2009-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. van Koten, Silvester, 2021. "The forward premium in electricity markets: An experimental study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Capitán Herráiz, Álvaro & Rodríguez Monroy, Carlos, 2009. "Analysis of the efficiency of the Iberian power futures market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3566-3579, September.
    3. Elena Márquez & Belén Nieto Doménech & Gonzalo Rubio Irigoyen, 2010. "Consumption, liquidity and the cross-sectional variation of expected returns," Working Papers. Serie AD 2010-24, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    4. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in electricity wholesale spot markets: empirical evidence from Germany," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-11, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    5. Koten, Silvester Van, 2020. "Forward premia in electricity markets: A replication study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Mossay, P. & Picard, P.M., 2011. "On spatial equilibria in a social interaction model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(6), pages 2455-2477.
    7. Alfredo Trespalacios Carrasquilla & Juan Fernando Rendón García & Javier Orlando Pantoja Robayo, 2016. "Efecto de Restricciones VaR sobre coberturas en mercados eléctricos," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 19(2), pages 201-220, December.
    8. José M. Jiménez Gómez, 2010. "Noncooperative justifications for old bankruptcy rules," Working Papers. Serie AD 2010-15, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    9. Francesco Serti & Roberto Leombruni & Tiziano Razzolini, 2010. "The pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs of job displacement. An evaluation of the post-displacement injury rate," Working Papers. Serie AD 2010-12, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    10. Carolina Silva Cassorla, 2010. "The interaction of minimum wage and severance payments in a frictional labor market: theory and estimation," Working Papers. Serie AD 2010-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    11. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in the German electricity futures market," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-07, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).

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