IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2305.02523.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Market Making and Pricing of Financial Derivatives based on Road Travel Times

Author

Listed:
  • Ke Wan
  • Alain Kornhauser

Abstract

Travel time derivatives are financial instruments that derive their value from road travel times, serving as an underlying asset that cannot be directly traded. Within the transportation domain, these derivatives are proposed as a more comprehensive approach to value pricing. They enable road pricing based not only on the level of travel time but also its volatility. In the financial market, travel time derivatives are introduced as innovative hedging instruments to mitigate market risk, particularly in light of recent stress experienced by the crypto market and traditional banking sector. The paper focuses on three main aspects: (1) the motivation behind the introduction of these derivatives, driven by the demand for hedging; (2) exploring the potential market for these instruments; and (3) delving into the product design and pricing schemes associated with them. The pricing schemes are devised by utilizing real-time travel time data captured by sensors. These data are modeled using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and, more broadly, continuous time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models. The calibration of these models is achieved through a hidden factor model, which describes the dynamics of travel time processes. The risk-neutral pricing principle is then employed to determine the prices of the derivatives, employing well-designed procedures to identify the market value of risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Ke Wan & Alain Kornhauser, 2023. "Market Making and Pricing of Financial Derivatives based on Road Travel Times," Papers 2305.02523, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2305.02523
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.02523
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marios Panayides & Andreas Charitou, 2004. "The Role of the Market Maker in International Capital Markets: Challenges and Benefits of Implementation in Emerging Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm443, Yale School of Management.
    2. Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Peter Tankov, 2008. "Multi-Factor Jump-Diffusion Models Of Electricity Prices," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 503-528.
    3. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    4. A. E. Brockwell & P. J. Brockwell, 1999. "A Class of Non‐Embeddable ARMA Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 483-486, September.
    5. Mingxin Xu, 2006. "Risk measure pricing and hedging in incomplete markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 51-71, January.
    6. Fred ESPEN Benth & Jurate saltyte Benth, 2007. "The volatility of temperature and pricing of weather derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 553-561.
    7. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    8. Jonathan D Hall, 2021. "Can Tolling Help Everyone? Estimating the Aggregate and Distributional Consequences of Congestion Pricing," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 441-474.
    9. Marco Frittelli, 2000. "The Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure and the Valuation Problem in Incomplete Markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 39-52, January.
    10. Benth, Fred Espen & Cartea, Álvaro & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2008. "Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2006-2021, October.
    11. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5562, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Peter J. Brockwell, 1995. "A Note On The Embedding Of Discrete‐Time Arma Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 451-460, September.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11500 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Aur'elien Alfonsi & Nerea Vadillo, 2022. "A stochastic volatility model for the valuation of temperature derivatives," Papers 2209.05918, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    15. Chris Nash & Tom Sansom, 2001. "Pricing European Transport Systems: Recent Developments and Evidence from Case Studies," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 35(3), pages 363-380, September.
    16. Fan,Jianqing & Yao,Qiwei, 2017. "The Elements of Financial Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107191174, January.
    17. Samuel Asante Gyamerah & Philip Ngare & Dennis Ikpe, 2019. "Hedging crop yields against weather uncertainties -- a weather derivative perspective," Papers 1905.07546, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benth, Fred Espen & Biegler-König, Richard & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2013. "An empirical study of the information premium on electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 55-77.
    2. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2008. "Stochastic Modeling of Electricity and Related Markets," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6811, December.
    3. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in electricity wholesale spot markets: empirical evidence from Germany," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-11, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    4. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    5. Almut E. D. Veraart & Luitgard A. M. Veraart, 2013. "Risk premia in energy markets," CREATES Research Papers 2013-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Ivan Peñaloza & Pablo Padilla, 2022. "A Pricing Method in a Constrained Market with Differential Informational Frameworks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 1055-1100, October.
    7. repec:dui:wpaper:1504 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bunn, Derek W. & Chen, Dipeng, 2013. "The forward premium in electricity futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-186.
    9. Jacobs, Kris & Li, Yu & Pirrong, Craig, 2022. "Supply, demand, and risk premiums in electricity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Alexandre Carbonneau & Fr'ed'eric Godin, 2021. "Deep equal risk pricing of financial derivatives with non-translation invariant risk measures," Papers 2107.11340, arXiv.org.
    11. Ren'e Aid & Dylan Possamai & Nizar Touzi, 2018. "Optimal electricity demand response contracting with responsiveness incentives," Papers 1810.09063, arXiv.org, revised May 2019.
    12. Caporin, Massimiliano & Preś, Juliusz & Torro, Hipolit, 2012. "Model based Monte Carlo pricing of energy and temperature Quanto options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1700-1712.
    13. Iván Blanco, Juan Ignacio Peña, and Rosa Rodriguez, 2018. "Modelling Electricity Swaps with Stochastic Forward Premium Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    14. Michail Anthropelos & Nikolaos E. Frangos & Stylianos Z. Xanthopoulos & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2008. "On contingent claims pricing in incomplete markets: A risk sharing approach," Papers 0809.4781, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2012.
    15. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    16. Gupta, Aparna & Palepu, Sai, 2024. "Designing risk-free service for renewable wind and solar resources," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(2), pages 715-728.
    17. Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
    18. Rubin, Ofir D. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2011. "A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2711-2721, May.
    19. Ruoyang Li & Alva Svoboda & Shmuel Oren, 2015. "Efficiency impact of convergence bidding in the california electricity market," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 245-284, December.
    20. St'ephane Goutte & Nadia Oudjane & Francesco Russo, 2009. "Variance Optimal Hedging for continuous time processes with independent increments and applications," Papers 0912.0372, arXiv.org.
    21. Joanna Janczura, 2012. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model," Papers 1203.5442, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2305.02523. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.