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Dynamic copula models for the spark spread

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  • Fred Espen Benth
  • Paul Kettler

Abstract

We propose a non-symmetric copula to model the evolution of electricity and gas prices by a bivariate non-Gaussian autoregressive process. We identify the marginal dynamics as driven by normal inverse Gaussian processes, estimating them from a series of observed UK electricity and gas spot data. We estimate the copula by modeling the difference between the empirical copula and the independent copula. We then simulate the joint process and price options written on the spark spread. We find that option prices are significantly influenced by the copula and the marginal distributions, along with the seasonality of the underlying prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kettler, 2010. "Dynamic copula models for the spark spread," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 407-421.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:11:y:2010:i:3:p:407-421
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2010.481629
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Helyette Geman & A. Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," Post-Print halshs-00144198, HAL.
    2. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/607 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Fred Espen Benth & Lars Ekeland & Ragnar Hauge & BjøRn Fredrik Nielsen, 2003. "A note on arbitrage-free pricing of forward contracts in energy markets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 325-336.
    5. Benth, Fred Espen & Cartea, Álvaro & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2008. "Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2006-2021, October.
    6. Fusai, Gianluca & Marena, Marina & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2008. "Analytical pricing of discretely monitored Asian-style options: Theory and application to commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2033-2045, October.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1433 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hélyette Geman & Andrea Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1225-1262, May.
    9. Helyette Geman, 2005. "Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy," Post-Print halshs-00144182, HAL.
    10. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 1997. "Processes of normal inverse Gaussian type," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 41-68.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Noufel Frikha & Vincent Lemaire, 2012. "Joint Modelling of Gas and Electricity spot prices," Post-Print hal-00421289, HAL.
    2. Johannes Kaufmann & Philipp Artur Kienscherf & Wolfgang Ketter, 2020. "Modeling and Managing Joint Price and Volumetric Risk for Volatile Electricity Portfolios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    3. PIERRET, Diane, 2013. "The systemic risk of energy markets," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Dependence and extreme dependence of crude oil and natural gas prices with applications to risk management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 332-342.
    5. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, January.
    6. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2016. "Natural gas-fired power plants valuation and optimisation under Levy copulas and regime-switching," Papers 1607.01207, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    7. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2017. "Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants Valuation And Optimization Under Lévy Copulas And Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-38, February.
    8. Christensen, Troels Sønderby & Pircalabu, Anca & Høg, Esben, 2019. "A seasonal copula mixture for hedging the clean spark spread with wind power futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 64-80.
    9. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2008. "Stochastic Modeling of Electricity and Related Markets," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6811, August.

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