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How predictable is technological progress?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Coccia, Mario, 2019. "The theory of technological parasitism for the measurement of the evolution of technology and technological forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 289-304.
  2. Emily Burchfield & Neil Matthews-Pennanen & Justin Schoof & Christopher Lant, 2020. "Changing yields in the Central United States under climate and technological change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 329-346, April.
  3. Pablo Casas & José L. Torres, 2023. "Automation, automatic capital returns, and the functional income distribution," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 113-135, January.
  4. Magee, C.L. & Basnet, S. & Funk, J.L. & Benson, C.L., 2016. "Quantitative empirical trends in technical performance," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 237-246.
  5. Côme Billard, 2020. "Technology Contagion in Networks," Working Papers 2020.01, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
  6. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2022. "Econometrics of sentiments- sentometrics and machine learning: The improvement of inflation predictions in Romania using sentiment analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
  7. Pearce, Phoebe & Slade, Raphael, 2018. "Feed-in tariffs for solar microgeneration: Policy evaluation and capacity projections using a realistic agent-based model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 95-111.
  8. Xaviery N. Penisa & Michael T. Castro & Jethro Daniel A. Pascasio & Eugene A. Esparcia & Oliver Schmidt & Joey D. Ocon, 2020. "Projecting the Price of Lithium-Ion NMC Battery Packs Using a Multifactor Learning Curve Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
  9. Handayani, Kamia & Krozer, Yoram & Filatova, Tatiana, 2019. "From fossil fuels to renewables: An analysis of long-term scenarios considering technological learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 134-146.
  10. Wen, Xin & Jaxa-Rozen, Marc & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2023. "Hindcasting to inform the development of bottom-up electricity system models: The cases of endogenous demand and technology learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
  11. Anton Pichler & Franc{c}ois Lafond & J. Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Technological interdependencies predict innovation dynamics," Papers 2003.00580, arXiv.org.
  12. Farmer, J. Doyne & Hepburn, Cameron & Beinhocker, Eric, 2018. "The Tipping Point: How the G20 Can Lead the Transition to a Prosperous Clean Energy Economy," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-09, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
  13. Xiao, Nanbing & Zhou, Jincheng & Fang, Xia, 2023. "Role of digital finance, investment, and trade in technological progress," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  14. Newbery, David & Pollitt, Michael G. & Ritz, Robert A. & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2018. "Market design for a high-renewables European electricity system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 695-707.
  15. Lafond, François & Bailey, Aimee Gotway & Bakker, Jan David & Rebois, Dylan & Zadourian, Rubina & McSharry, Patrick & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2018. "How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 104-117.
  16. James Holehouse & Hector Pollitt, 2021. "Non-equilibrium time-dependent solution to discrete choice with social interactions," Papers 2109.09633, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  17. Klein, Martin & Deissenroth, Marc, 2017. "When do households invest in solar photovoltaics? An application of prospect theory," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 270-278.
  18. Elena Verdolini & Laura Díaz Anadón & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2018. "Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 133-153.
  19. Dosi, Giovanni & Grazzi, Marco & Mathew, Nanditha, 2017. "The cost-quantity relations and the diverse patterns of “learning by doing”: Evidence from India," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1873-1886.
  20. Herche, Wesley, 2017. "Solar energy strategies in the U.S. utility market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 590-595.
  21. Zhang, Mingming & Nie, Jinchen & Su, Bin & Liu, Liyun, 2024. "An option game model applicable to multi-agent cooperation investment in energy storage projects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  22. Feng, Sida & Magee, Christopher L., 2020. "Technological development of key domains in electric vehicles: Improvement rates, technology trajectories and key assignees," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
  23. Steffen Link & Annegret Stephan & Daniel Speth & Patrick Plötz, 2024. "Rapidly declining costs of truck batteries and fuel cells enable large-scale road freight electrification," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 9(8), pages 1032-1039, August.
  24. Hötte, Kerstin & Pichler, Anton & Lafond, François, 2021. "The rise of science in low-carbon energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  25. Tamer Khraisha & Keren Arthur, 2018. "Can we have a general theory of financial innovation processes? A conceptual review," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, December.
  26. JongRoul Woo & Christopher L. Magee, 2018. "Forecasting the value of battery electric vehicles compared to internal combustion engine vehicles: the influence of driving range and battery technology," Papers 1806.06947, arXiv.org.
  27. Torsten Heinrich & Jangho Yang & Shuanping Dai, 2022. "Levels of structural change," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 35-86, January.
  28. Li, Yanan & Lin, Jun & Qian, Yanjun & Li, Dehong, 2023. "Feed-in tariff policy for biomass power generation: Incorporating the feedstock acquisition process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1113-1132.
  29. François Lafond & Daniel Kim, 2019. "Long-run dynamics of the U.S. patent classification system," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 631-664, April.
  30. Christopher L. Benson & Christopher L. Magee, 2018. "Data-Driven Investment Decision-Making: Applying Moore's Law and S-Curves to Business Strategies," Papers 1805.06339, arXiv.org.
  31. Zaid A. Aljawary & Santiago de Pablo & Luis Carlos Herrero-de Lucas & Fernando Martinez-Rodrigo, 2020. "Local Carrier PWM for Modular Multilevel Converters with Distributed PV Cells and Circulating Current Reduction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-21, October.
  32. Hansen, J.P. & Narbel, P.A. & Aksnes, D.L., 2017. "Limits to growth in the renewable energy sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 769-774.
  33. Proskuryakova, Liliana N. & Ermolenko, Georgy V., 2019. "The future of Russia’s renewable energy sector: Trends, scenarios and policies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1670-1686.
  34. Krupa, Joel & Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2017. "Renewable electricity finance in the United States: A state-of-the-art review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 913-929.
  35. Parviz Sohrabi & Behshad Jodeiri Shokri & Hesam Dehghani, 2023. "Predicting coal price using time series methods and combination of radial basis function (RBF) neural network with time series," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 207-216, June.
  36. Zadourian, Rubina & Klümper, Andreas, 2018. "Exact probability distribution function for the volatility of cumulative production," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 59-66.
  37. Hepburn, Cameron & Mealy, Penny, 2017. "Transformational Change: Parallels for addressing climate and development goals," INET Oxford Working Papers 2019-02, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised May 2019.
  38. Hepburn, Cameron & Pfeiffer, Alexander & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & J. Tulloch, Daniel, 2018. "Dead on arrival? Implicit stranded assets in leading IAM scenarios," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-08, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
  39. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
  40. ALI, Essossinam, 2018. "Impact of Climate Variability on Staple Food Crops Production in Northern Togo," MPRA Paper 91972, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2018.
  41. Guanglu Zhang & Douglas Allaire & Venkatesh Shankar & Daniel A McAdams, 2019. "A case against the trickle-down effect in technology ecosystems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-7, June.
  42. Heinrich, Torsten, 2016. "The Narrow and the Broad Approach to Evolutionary Modeling in Economics," MPRA Paper 75797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  43. Heinrich, Torsten, 2015. "Growth Cycles, Network Effects, and Intersectoral Dependence: An Agent-Based Model and Simulation Analysis," MPRA Paper 79575, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jun 2017.
  44. Hugo Confraria & Vitor Hugo Ferreira & Manuel Mira Godinho, 2021. "Emerging 21st Century technologies: Is Europe still falling behind?," Working Papers REM 2021/0188, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
  45. Francois Rozon & Craig McGregor & Michael Owen, 2023. "Long-Term Forecasting Framework for Renewable Energy Technologies’ Installed Capacity and Costs for 2050," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-20, September.
  46. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2024. "Five sensitive intervention points to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, illustrated by the UK," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
  47. Zhang, Bowen & Rees, Griffith & Solomon, Guy & Wilson, Alan, 2023. "Input-output analytics for urban systems: explorations in policy and planning," SocArXiv sruq7, Center for Open Science.
  48. Femke J. M. M. Nijsse & Jean-Francois Mercure & Nadia Ameli & Francesca Larosa & Sumit Kothari & Jamie Rickman & Pim Vercoulen & Hector Pollitt, 2023. "The momentum of the solar energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
  49. Sugandha Srivastav & Ryan Rafaty, 2023. "Political Strategies to Overcome Climate Policy Obstructionism," Papers 2304.14960, arXiv.org.
  50. Zhang, Guanglu & McAdams, Daniel A. & Shankar, Venkatesh & Darani, Milad Mohammadi, 2017. "Modeling the evolution of system technology performance when component and system technology performances interact: Commensalism and amensalism," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 116-124.
  51. Aydin, Erdal & Eichholtz, Piet & Yönder, Erkan, 2018. "The economics of residential solar water heaters in emerging economies: The case of Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 285-299.
  52. Hann-Earl Kim & Yu-Sang Chang & Hee-Jin Kim, 2021. "Dynamic Electricity Intensity Trends in 91 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, April.
  53. Alex Coad & Gianluca Biggi & Elisa Giuliani, 2021. "Asbestos, leaded petrol, and other aberrations: comparing countries’ regulatory responses to disapproved products and technologies," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 201-233, February.
  54. Anuraag Singh & Giorgio Triulzi & Christopher L. Magee, 2020. "Technological improvement rate estimates for all technologies: Use of patent data and an extended domain description," Papers 2004.13919, arXiv.org.
  55. David F. Hendry, 2020. "First in, First out: Econometric Modelling of UK Annual CO_2 Emissions, 1860–2017," Economics Papers 2020-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  56. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
  57. Rosaria Ciriminna & Francesco Meneguzzo & Lorenzo Albanese & Mario Pagliaro, 2017. "Solar street lighting: a key technology en route to sustainability," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), March.
  58. Pegels, Anna & Altenburg, Tilman, 2020. "Latecomer development in a “greening” world: Introduction to the Special Issue," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  59. Rubina Zadourian, 2024. "Model-based and empirical analyses of stochastic fluctuations in economy and finance," Papers 2408.16010, arXiv.org.
  60. Ives, Matthew & Cesaro, Zac & Bramstoft, Rasmus & Bañares-Alcántara, René, 2023. "Facilitating deep decarbonization via sector coupling of green hydrogen and ammonia," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-04, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
  61. Cesaro, Zac & Ives, Matthew & Nayak-Luke, Richard & Mason, Mike & Bañares-Alcántara, René, 2021. "Ammonia to power: Forecasting the levelized cost of electricity from green ammonia in large-scale power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
  62. Rashid Gill, Abid & Viswanathan, Kuperan K. & Hassan, Sallahuddin, 2018. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and the environmental problem of the day," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1636-1642.
  63. Triulzi, Giorgio & Alstott, Jeff & Magee, Christopher L., 2020. "Estimating technology performance improvement rates by mining patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  64. Mario Coccia, 2019. "Technological Parasitism," Papers 1901.09073, arXiv.org.
  65. Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2020. "Analogical reasoning, cognition, and the response to technological change: Lessons from mobile communication," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(5).
  66. Martin Kalthaus, 2017. "Identifying technological sub-trajectories in photovoltaic patents," Jena Economics Research Papers 2017-010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  67. Singh, Anuraag & Triulzi, Giorgio & Magee, Christopher L., 2021. "Technological improvement rate predictions for all technologies: Use of patent data and an extended domain description," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
  68. Guo, Shibo & Zhang, Zhentao & Guo, Erjing & Fu, Zhenzhen & Gong, Jingjin & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2022. "Historical and projected impacts of climate change and technology on soybean yield in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
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