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The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?

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Cited by:

  1. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Revisiting the relative forecast performances of Fed staff and private forecasters: A dynamic approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 313-323.
  2. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis," Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
  3. repec:fce:doctra:13-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Using forecasts to uncover the loss function of FOMC members," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201302, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  5. Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2017. "The Stabilizing Role of Forward Guidance: A Macro Experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168063, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  6. Jung, Alexander & Latsos, Sophia, 2015. "Do federal reserve bank presidents have a regional bias?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 173-183.
  7. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2023. "Raiders of the lost high‐frequency forecasts: New data and evidence on the efficiency of the Fed's forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 88-104, January.
  8. Pao‐Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2021. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 686-712, June.
  9. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 543-559.
  10. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 163-179, April.
  11. Paul Hubert, 2015. "The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 655-680, October.
  12. repec:hal:journl:hal-04670309 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Stekler, Herman & Symington, Hilary, 2016. "Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 559-570.
  14. Ericsson, Neil R., 2016. "Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
  15. Richardson, Adam & van Florenstein Mulder, Thomas & Vehbi, Tuğrul, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP using machine-learning algorithms: A real-time assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 941-948.
  16. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2024. "The bias of the ECB inflation projections: A State-dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2024, Bank of Finland.
  17. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2015. "Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 173-190.
  18. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & McAleer, M.J. & Legerstee, R., 2008. "Does the ROMC have expertise, and can it forecast?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  19. Paul Hubert, 2014. "FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1381-1420, October.
  20. Natsuki Arai, 2016. "Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 1019-1049, August.
  21. Cai, Michael & Del Negro, Marco & Giannoni, Marc P. & Gupta, Abhi & Li, Pearl & Moszkowski, Erica, 2019. "DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1770-1789.
  22. Jakub Rybacki, 2019. "Are Central Banks' Research Teams Fragile Because of Groupthink?," KAE Working Papers 2019-045, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
  23. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & McAleer, M.J. & Legerstee, R., 2010. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecast: A Review of Some Recent Developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  24. Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015. "What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
  25. Tillmann, Peter, 2010. "The Fed's perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1008-1013, December.
  26. Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2012. "A Defense Of The Fomc," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1047-1065, November.
  27. Carlos Madeira & João Madeira & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2023. "The origins of monetary policy disagreement: the role of supply and demand shocks," BIS Working Papers 1118, Bank for International Settlements.
  28. Bennani, Hamza & Kranz, Tobias & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2018. "Disagreement between FOMC members and the Fed’s staff: New insights based on a counterfactual interest rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 139-153.
  29. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  30. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Hamza Bennani & Tobias Kranz & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "Disagreement Between the FOMC and the Fed's Staff: New Insights Based on a Counterfactual Interest Rate," Research Papers in Economics 2017-10, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
  32. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2012. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  33. Nagel, Stefan & Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Yan, Zhen, 2017. "The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC," CEPR Discussion Papers 11902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  34. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K., 2009. "Are the Fed's inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector's?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, June.
  35. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Forecast disagreement among FOMC members," Working Papers 2009-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  36. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2014. "Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters?," Working Paper Series 1635, European Central Bank.
  37. Mikael Apel & Carl Andreas Claussen & Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Petra Lennartsdotter & Øistein Røisland, 2013. "Monetary policy decisions – comparing theory and “inside” information from MPC members," Working Paper 2013/03, Norges Bank.
  38. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2022. "Econometrics of sentiments- sentometrics and machine learning: The improvement of inflation predictions in Romania using sentiment analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
  39. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
  40. Ales Bulir & Jaromir Hurnik & Katerina Smidkova, 2013. "Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?," Working Papers 2013/03, Czech National Bank.
  41. Benjamin YAMB & Jean Louis EKOMANE, 2019. "Human Development:“Can money buy Happiness?â€," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 49(2(58)), pages 31-49, December.
  42. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 155-159.
  43. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Tillmann, Peter, 2011. "Do FOMC members herd?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 176-179.
  44. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2020. "Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  45. Daniel Aromí & Daniel Heymann, 2024. "Talk to Fed: a Big Dive into FOMC Transcripts," Working Papers 323, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  46. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
  47. John C. Bluedorn & Christopher Bowdler, 2010. "The Empirics of International Monetary Transmission: Identification and the Impossible Trinity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 679-713, June.
  48. Juan Tenorio & Wilder Perez, 2024. "Monthly GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data," Papers 2402.04165, arXiv.org.
  49. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "Central Bank Design," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 17-44, Fall.
  50. Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2020. "Appropriate monetary policy and forecast disagreement at the FOMC," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 223-255, January.
  51. Claussen, Carl Andreas & Matsen, Egil & Røisland, Øistein & Torvik, Ragnar, 2012. "Overconfidence, monetary policy committees and chairman dominance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 699-711.
  52. Malmendier, Ulrike & Nagel, Stefan & Yan, Zhen, 2021. "The making of hawks and doves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 19-42.
  53. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_007 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
  55. Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2014. "Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 365-388, August.
  56. Binder, Carola Conces & Wetzel, Samantha, 2018. "The FOMC versus the staff, revisited: When do policymakers add value?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 72-75.
  57. Herman O. Stekler & Hilary Symington, 2014. "How Did The Fomc View The Great Recession As It Was Happening?: Evaluating The Minutes From Fomc Meetings, 2006-2010," Working Papers 2014-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  58. Jakub Rybacki, 2020. "Are Central Banks’ Research Teams Fragile Because of Groupthink in the Area of Monetary Policy? – Evidence on Inflation Targeting," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 81-103.
  59. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2009. "Expert opinion versus expertise in forecasting," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(3), pages 334-346, August.
  60. Jones, Adam T. & Ogden, Richard E., 2017. "A day late and a dollar short: The effect of policy uncertainty on fed forecast errors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 112-122.
  61. Sandra A. Cannon, 2015. "Sentiment of the FOMC: Unscripted," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-31.
  62. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  63. Sebastian Gomez-Barrero & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2014. "Central Bank Strategic Forecasting," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 802-810, October.
  64. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "The value added of the Bank of Japan's range forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 817-833, August.
  65. repec:bny:wpaper:0046 is not listed on IDEAS
  66. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2015. "On Sturdy Policy Evaluation," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(S2), pages 447-473.
  67. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2020. "Introducing the Bank of Canada staff economic projections database," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 114-129, January.
  68. Wilcox James A., 2009. "Comments on `Policies to Deal with the Implosion' and `Homes and Cars'," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-22, March.
  69. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
  70. Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis," Working Paper 2021/1, Norges Bank.
  71. Tillmann, Peter, 2011. "Strategic forecasting on the FOMC," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 547-553, September.
  72. James Bishop & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Anticipatory Monetary Policy and the 'Price Puzzle'," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  73. Bordo, Michael & Istrefi, Klodiana, 2023. "Perceived FOMC: The making of hawks, doves and swingers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 125-143.
  74. Daniel Culbertson & Tara Sinclair, 2014. "The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(6), pages 34-45.
  75. Lambe, Brendan & Li, Zhiyong & Qin, Weiping, 2022. "Uncertain times and the insider perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  76. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04095385, HAL.
  77. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
  78. repec:bny:wpaper:0002 is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2014. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Concise Review Of Some Recent Developments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 195-208, April.
  80. Ellis, Michael A. & Liu, Dandan, 2013. "Do FOMC forecasts add value to staff forecasts?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 332-340.
  81. Kwok Ping Tsang & Zichao Yang, 2023. "Agree to Disagree: Measuring Hidden Dissents in FOMC Meetings," Papers 2308.10131, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  82. Aleš Bulíř & Jaromír Hurník & Kateřina Šmídková, 2016. "What Do Central Banks Know about Inflation Factors?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 795-810, September.
  83. Nélida Díaz Sobrino & Corinna Ghirelli & Samuel Hurtado & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2020. "The narrative about the economy as a shadow forecast: an analysis using Banco de España quarterly reports," Working Papers 2042, Banco de España.
  84. Couture, Cody, 2021. "Financial market effects of FOMC projections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  85. Paul Hubert, 2015. "The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 655-680, October.
  86. Esteban Colla de Robertis, 2010. "Monetary Policy Committees and the Decision to Publish Voting Records," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 97-139, July-Dece.
  87. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yiyao Wang, 2019. "Evaluation of the Survey of Professional Forecasters in the Greenbook’s Loss Function," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 345-360, June.
  88. Bespalova, Olga, 2020. "GDP forecasts: Informational asymmetry of the SPF and FOMC minutes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1531-1540.
  89. Mikael Apel & Carl Andreas Claussen & Petra Lennartsdotter & Øistein Røisland, 2015. "Monetary Policy Committees: Comparing Theory and "Inside" Information from MPC Members," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 47-89, December.
  90. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  91. Gamber, Edward N. & Liebner, Jeffrey P. & Smith, Julie K., 2015. "The distribution of inflation forecast errors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 47-64.
  92. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
  93. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  94. Thomas L. Hogan, 2022. "The calculus of dissent: Bias and diversity in FOMC projections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 191(1), pages 105-135, April.
  95. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
  96. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yiyao Wang, 2015. "Finding SPF Percentiles Closest to Greenbook," Working Papers 201503, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  97. Ilias Filippou & James Mitchell & My T. Nguyen, 2023. "The FOMC versus the Staff: Do Policymakers Add Value in Their Tales?," Working Papers 23-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  98. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: A state dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
  99. Hansen, Lars Peter & Mayer, Ricardo & Sargent, Thomas, 2010. "Robust hidden Markov LQG problems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1951-1966, October.
  100. Sheng, Xuguang (Simon), 2015. "Evaluating the economic forecasts of FOMC members," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 165-175.
  101. Richardson, Adam & van Florenstein Mulder, Thomas & Vehbi, Tuğrul, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP using machine-learning algorithms: A real-time assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 941-948.
  102. Pablo Pincheira, 2010. "A Real Time Evaluation of the Central Bank of Chile GDP Growth Forecasts," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 37-73, January-J.
  103. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  104. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  105. Ricardo Nunes, 2013. "Do central banks’ forecasts take into account public opinion and views?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1080, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  106. Peter Tillmann, 2011. "Reputation and Forecast Revisions: Evidence from the FOMC," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201128, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  107. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman Stekler, 2010. "Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 2010-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  108. Carlos Madeira & Joao Madeira, 2015. "Dissent in FOMC Meeting and the Announcement Drift," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 749, Central Bank of Chile.
  109. Davide Romelli & Hamza Bennani, 2021. "Disagreement inside the FOMC: New Insights from Tone Analysis," Trinity Economics Papers tep1021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  110. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  111. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2022. "Evaluating the European Central Bank’s uncertainty forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 321-330.
  112. Peter Tulip, 2009. "Has the Economy Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1217-1231, September.
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