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Intraday price formation and volatility in the European Union emissions trading scheme: an introductory analysis

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  • Rotfuß, Waldemar

Abstract

This paper presents an introductory analysis of price formation and volatility in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme using highfrequency data. The results show that there are several anomalies both in the EUA spot and EUA futures market. First, price formation seems to take place on price sets that are coarser than those offered by the exchanges. Second, price formation in the EUA spot market (BlueNext) may be strongly affected by the price formation in the EUA futures market (ICE Futures). The typical U-shaped pattern of intraday volatility, that is often observed in organized financial markets, is partly present in the EUA futures market. Similar to other classical financial markets, realized volatility estimates of daily EUA volatility seem to have a long-memory property.

Suggested Citation

  • Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2009. "Intraday price formation and volatility in the European Union emissions trading scheme: an introductory analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-018, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:09018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-025 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Conrad, Christian & Rittler, Daniel & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2012. "Modeling and explaining the dynamics of European Union Allowance prices at high-frequency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 316-326.
    3. Mazza, Paolo & Petitjean, Mikael, 2015. "How integrated is the European carbon derivatives market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 18-30.
    4. Chevallier, Julien & Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2011. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 855-880.
    5. Chen, Jiayuan & Muckley, Cal B. & Bredin, Don, 2017. "Is information assimilated at announcements in the European carbon market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 234-247.
    6. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 692-704.
    7. Rotfuß, Waldemar & Conrad, Christian & Rittler, Daniel, 2009. "The European Commission and EUA prices: a high-frequency analysis of the EC's decisions on second NAPs," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-045, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Kalaitzoglou, Iordanis Angelos, 2016. "Why do carbon prices and price volatility change?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 76-94.
    9. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Muckley, Cal, 2014. "A microstructure analysis of the carbon finance market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 222-234.
    10. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
    11. Ibikunle, Gbenga & Gregoriou, Andros & Hoepner, Andreas G.F. & Rhodes, Mark, 2016. "Liquidity and market efficiency in the world's largest carbon market," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 431-447.
    12. Vicente Medina & Angel Pardo, 2013. "Is the EUA a new asset class?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 637-653, March.
    13. Benschop, Thijs & López Cabrera, Brenda, 2017. "Realized volatility of CO2 futures," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2017-025, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    14. Vicente Medina Martínez & Ángel Pardo Tornero, 2012. "Stylized facts of CO2 returns," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-14, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EUA; EU ETS; Intraday Price Formation; Realized Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q59 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Other

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