IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v33y2009i7p1230-1241.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme

Author

Listed:
  • Daskalakis, George
  • Psychoyios, Dimitris
  • Markellos, Raphael N.

Abstract

This paper studies the three main markets for emission allowances within the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS): Powernext, Nord Pool and European Climate Exchange (ECX). The analysis suggests that the prohibition of banking of emission allowances between distinct phases of the EU ETS has significant implications in terms of futures pricing. Motivated by these findings, we develop an empirically and theoretically valid framework for the pricing and hedging of intra-phase and inter-phase futures and options on futures, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:7:p:1230-1241
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(09)00003-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Borak, Szymon & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2006. "Convenience yields for CO2 emission allowance futures contracts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-076, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
    3. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
    4. Bates, David S, 1991. "The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-1044, July.
    5. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
    6. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, January.
    7. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    8. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
    9. Windcliff, H. & Forsyth, P.A. & Vetzal, K.R., 2006. "Pricing methods and hedging strategies for volatility derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 409-431, February.
    10. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    11. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-2049, December.
    12. Kara, M. & Syri, S. & Lehtila, A. & Helynen, S. & Kekkonen, V. & Ruska, M. & Forsstrom, J., 2008. "The impacts of EU CO2 emissions trading on electricity markets and electricity consumers in Finland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 193-211, March.
    13. Mills,Terence C. & Markellos,Raphael N., 2008. "The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521710091, January.
    14. Bierbrauer, Michael & Menn, Christian & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Truck, Stefan, 2007. "Spot and derivative pricing in the EEX power market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3462-3485, November.
    15. Schleich, Joachim & Ehrhart, Karl-Martin & Hoppe, Christian & Seifert, Stefan, 2006. "Banning banking in EU emissions trading?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-120, January.
    16. Schennach, Susanne M., 2000. "The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 189-210, November.
    17. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    18. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    19. Joskow, Paul L & Schmalensee, Richard & Bailey, Elizabeth M, 1998. "The Market for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 669-685, September.
    20. Jérôme Detemple & Carlton Osakwe, 2000. "The Valuation of Volatility Options," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 4(1), pages 21-50.
    21. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. "An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
    22. Marc Chesney & Luca Taschini, 2008. "The Endogenous Price Dynamics of the Emission Allowances: An Application to CO2 Option Pricing," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-02, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jan 2008.
    23. Mills,Terence C. & Markellos,Raphael N., 2008. "The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521883818.
    24. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    25. Dotsis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Skiadopoulos, George, 2007. "An empirical comparison of continuous-time models of implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3584-3603, December.
    26. Brenner, Menachem & Ou, Ernest Y. & Zhang, Jin E., 2006. "Hedging volatility risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 811-821, March.
    27. Bakshi, Gurdip & Ju, Nengjiu & Ou-Yang, Hui, 2006. "Estimation of continuous-time models with an application to equity volatility dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 227-249, October.
    28. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
    29. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    30. Godal, Odd & Klaassen, Ger, 2006. "Carbon trading across sources and periods constrained by the Marrakesh Accords," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 308-322, May.
    31. Hilliard, Jimmy E. & Reis, Jorge, 1998. "Valuation of Commodity Futures and Options under Stochastic Convenience Yields, Interest Rates, and Jump Diffusions in the Spot," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 61-86, March.
    32. Singleton, Kenneth J., 2001. "Estimation of affine asset pricing models using the empirical characteristic function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 111-141, May.
    33. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-form Approximation Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 223-262, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kozarski, R., 2013. "Pricing and hedging in the VIX derivative market," Other publications TiSEM 221fefe0-241e-4914-b6bd-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Wugan Cai & Jiafeng Pan, 2017. "Stochastic Differential Equation Models for the Price of European CO 2 Emissions Allowances," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-12, February.
    3. Dotsis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Skiadopoulos, George, 2007. "An empirical comparison of continuous-time models of implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3584-3603, December.
    4. Dimitris Psychoyios & George Dotsis & Raphael Markellos, 2010. "A jump diffusion model for VIX volatility options and futures," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 245-269, October.
    5. Hilliard, Jimmy E. & Hilliard, Jitka, 2019. "A jump-diffusion model for pricing and hedging with margined options: An application to Brent crude oil contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 137-155.
    6. Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Rudolf, Markus, 2013. "Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 273-290.
    7. Sharon S. Yang & Jr-Wei Huang & Chuang-Chang Chang, 2016. "Detecting and modelling the jump risk of CO 2 emission allowances and their impact on the valuation of option on futures contracts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 749-762, May.
    8. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    9. Rajnish Kamat & Shmuel S. Oren, 2002. "Exotic Options for Interruptible Electricity Supply Contracts," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 835-850, October.
    10. Markellos, Raphael N. & Psychoyios, Dimitris, 2018. "Interest rate volatility and risk management: Evidence from CBOE Treasury options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-202.
    11. Lin, Yueh-Neng & Lin, Anchor Y., 2016. "Using VIX futures to hedge forward implied volatility risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 88-106.
    12. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jessica Fouilloux, 2010. "Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis in the EU ETS Markets for the CO2 Emission Allowances: Evidence from Phase I and Phase II," Post-Print hal-00797491, HAL.
    13. Kourtis, Apostolos & Markellos, Raphael N. & Psychoyios, Dimitris, 2012. "Wine price risk management: International diversification and derivative instruments," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 30-37.
    14. Kaeck, Andreas & Seeger, Norman J., 2020. "VIX derivatives, hedging and vol-of-vol risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(2), pages 767-782.
    15. Dempster, M.A.H. & Medova, Elena & Tang, Ke, 2018. "Latent jump diffusion factor estimation for commodity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 35-54.
    16. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    17. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-565 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Anatoliy Swishchuk, 2013. "Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8660, October.
    19. Grüll, Georg & Taschini, Luca, 2011. "Cap-and-trade properties under different hybrid scheme designs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 107-118, January.
    20. Diego Amaya & Jean-François Bégin & Geneviève Gauthier, 2022. "The Informational Content of High-Frequency Option Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2166-2201, March.
    21. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer & Stefan Trück, 2011. "The Dependence Structure between Carbon Emission Allowances and Financial Markets - A Copula Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3418, CESifo.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:7:p:1230-1241. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.