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Liquidity and market efficiency in the world's largest carbon market

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  • Ibikunle, Gbenga
  • Gregoriou, Andros
  • Hoepner, Andreas G.F.
  • Rhodes, Mark

Abstract

We investigate liquidity and market efficiency on the world's largest carbon exchange, IntercontinentalExchange Inc.’s European Climate Exchange (ECX), by using intraday short-horizon return predictability as an inverse indicator of market efficiency. We find a strong relationship between liquidity and market efficiency such that when spreads narrow, return predictability diminishes. This is more pronounced for the highest trading carbon futures and during periods of low liquidity. Since the start of trading in Phase II of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) prices have continuously moved nearer to unity with efficient, random walk benchmarks, and this improves from year to year. Overall, our findings suggest that trading quality in the EU-ETS has improved markedly and matures over the 2008–2011 compliance years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibikunle, Gbenga & Gregoriou, Andros & Hoepner, Andreas G.F. & Rhodes, Mark, 2016. "Liquidity and market efficiency in the world's largest carbon market," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 431-447.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:bracre:v:48:y:2016:i:4:p:431-447
    DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2015.11.001
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    2. Wang, Ge & Zhang, Qi & Su, Bin & Shen, Bo & Li, Yan & Li, Zhengjun, 2021. "Coordination of tradable carbon emission permits market and renewable electricity certificates market in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Viktor Manahov, 2021. "High‐frequency trading order cancellations and market quality: Is stricter regulation the answer?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5385-5407, October.
    4. Zhang, Wei & Li, Jing & Li, Guoxiang & Guo, Shucen, 2020. "Emission reduction effect and carbon market efficiency of carbon emissions trading policy in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Qi, Xiaoyuan & Han, Ying, 2023. "Research on the evolutionary strategy of carbon market under “dual carbon” goal: From the perspective of dynamic quota allocation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    6. Safiullah, Md & Kabir, Md. Nurul & Miah, Mohammad Dulal, 2021. "Carbon emissions and credit ratings," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Li, Hao & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2022. "Is China's carbon trading market efficient? Evidence from emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    8. Hanif, Waqas & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Mensi, Walid & Kang, Sang Hoon & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Nonlinear dependence and connectedness between clean/renewable energy sector equity and European emission allowance prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Chunyu Pan & Anil Kumar Shrestha & Guangyu Wang & John L. Innes & Kevin Xinwei Wang & Nuyun Li & Jinliang Li & Yeyun He & Chunguang Sheng & John-O. Niles, 2021. "A Linkage Framework for the China National Emission Trading System (CETS): Insight from Key Global Carbon Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-15, July.
    10. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    11. Fan, Xinghua & Lv, Xiangxiang & Yin, Jiuli & Tian, Lixin & Liang, Jiaochen, 2019. "Multifractality and market efficiency of carbon emission trading market: Analysis using the multifractal detrended fluctuation technique," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Moving Average Market Timing in European Energy Markets: Production Versus Emissions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-24, November.
    13. Chang, Kai & Chen, Rongda & Chevallier, Julien, 2018. "Market fragmentation, liquidity measures and improvement perspectives from China's emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 249-260.
    14. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Yiying & Qi, Yinshu & Duan, Kun, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of decomposed oil-price shocks on the EU carbon market dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    G12; G13; G14; G15; G18; Liquidity; Order flow; Market efficiency; Return predictability; European climate exchange; EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS); Carbon futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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