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The determinants of allowance prices in the European emissions trading scheme: Can we expect an efficient allowance market 2008?

Author

Listed:
  • Rickels, Wilfried
  • Duscha, Vicki
  • Keller, Andreas
  • Peterson, Sonja

Abstract

The European emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) for CO2 is the largest existing emissions trading scheme in the world. The main reason for the implementation of this scheme is to reach the European Kyoto targets at minimal cost and to establish a price for emissions. The right to emit CO2 therefore becomes a scarce production input. In this paper we want to analyze the determinants of the price for allowances in the EU-ETS and study whether it reacts to fundamental influence factors such as energy prices. The results show, that as long as the market viewed the allowances as a scarce input factor, the price reacts to changes in energy prices and weather variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rickels, Wilfried & Duscha, Vicki & Keller, Andreas & Peterson, Sonja, 2007. "The determinants of allowance prices in the European emissions trading scheme: Can we expect an efficient allowance market 2008?," Kiel Working Papers 1387, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1387
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefan P. Schleicher & Claudia Kettner & Angela Köppl & Gregor Thenius, 2007. "Stringency and Distribution in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme –The 2005 Evidence," Working Papers 2007.22, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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    3. Considine, Timothy J., 2000. "The impacts of weather variations on energy demand and carbon emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 295-314, October.
    4. Klepper, Gernot & Peterson, Sonja, 2004. "The EU emissions trading scheme allowance prices, trade flows and competitiveness effects," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3270, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Borak, Szymon & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2006. "Convenience yields for CO2 emission allowance futures contracts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-076, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    6. Gernot Klepper & Sonja Peterson, 2004. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Allowance Prices, Trade Flows, Competitiveness Effects," Working Papers 2004.49, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Ellerman, A. Denny & Montero, Juan-Pablo, 1998. "The Declining Trend in Sulfur Dioxide Emissions: Implications for Allowance Prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 26-45, July.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Allowance prices; Energy prices; Weather variation; European Emissions Trading Scheme;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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