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Die NAIRU: Eine post-keynesianische Interpretation

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  • Hein, Eckhard

Abstract

Dem neu-keynesianischen langfristigen Gleichgewichtskonzept einer durch Strukturfaktoren des Arbeitsmarktes, der Lohnverhandlungen und der sozialen Sicherungssysteme bestimmten inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU) wird in diesem Beitrag eine post-keynesianische Interpretation der NAIRU gegenübergestellt. In den neu-keynesianischen Modellen müssen wirksame Realkasseneffekte oder symmetrische Reaktionen und Wirkungen der Geldpolitik angenommen werden, damit sich die Güternachfrage langfristig an das mit der NAIRU kompatible Niveau des Güterangebots anpasst. Diese Annahmen sind für eine Geldwirtschaft unhaltbar, in der Geld über Gläubiger-Schuldner-Kontrakte entsteht und in der von Zinssatz und Profiterwartungen gesteuerte Investitionen die wesentliche Determinante von Produktion und Beschäftigung sind. In einem post-keynesianischen Modell stellt die NAIRU daher lediglich eine kurzfristige Beschäftigungsgrenze dar, die durch inflationsauslösende Verteilungsansprüche gegeben ist und durch die Geldpolitik erzwungen wird. Liegt die durch die effektive Güternachfrage bestimmte Arbeitslosenquote oberhalb der NAIRU, so existieren kurzfristig keine Anpassungsmechanismen. Langfristig folgt die NAIRU jedoch der tatsächlichen Arbeitslosenquote und wird damit durch die Entwicklung der effektiven Nachfrage bestimmt. Hierfür werden verschiedene Kanäle identifiziert. Es wird zudem gezeigt, dass effektiv koordinierte Lohnverhandlungssysteme sehr viel besser als restriktive Geldpolitiken in der Lage sind, die Inflationsrate bei hoher Beschäftigung zu stabilisieren. Effektiv koordinierte Tarifverhandlungssysteme haben zudem den großen Vorteil, dass sie eine Stabilisierung der Inflationsrate auch bei sinkender Beschäftigung ermöglichen und so ein unmittelbares Abgleiten der Ökonomie in makroökonomisch schädliche Deflationsprozesse verhindern können.

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  • Hein, Eckhard, 2003. "Die NAIRU: Eine post-keynesianische Interpretation," WSI Working Papers 113, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wsidps:113
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    2. Truger, Achim & Hein, Eckhard, 2004. "Macroeconomic co-ordination as an economic policy concept : opportunities and obstacles in the EMU," WSI Working Papers 125, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    3. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    4. Eckhard Hein & Thorsten Schulten & Achim Truger, 2004. "Wage trends and deflation risks in Germany and Europe," Macroeconomics 0412008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Pusch, Toralf, 2007. "Verteilungskampf und geldpolitische Sanktion," Working Papers on Economic Governance 23, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    6. Eckhard Hein & Thorsten Schulten, 2004. "Unemployment, wages and collective bargaining in the European Union," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 10(4), pages 532-551, November.
    7. Seifert, Hartmut & Tangian, Andranik, 2007. "Flexicurity: Reconciling Social Security with Flexibility - Empirical Findings for Europe," WSI Working Papers 154, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    8. Tangian, Andranik, 2012. "Statistical test for the mathematical theory of democracy," WSI Working Papers 179, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    9. Truger, Achim, 2003. "Germany's Poor Economic Performance in the Last Decade: It's the Macroeconomy, not Institutional Sclerosis," WSI Working Papers 118, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    10. Tangian, Andranik & Seifert, Hartmut, 2006. "Globalization and deregulation : Does flexicurity protect atypically employed?," WSI Working Papers 143, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    11. Tangian, Andranik, 2007. "Flexibility-Flexicurity-Flexinsurance: Response to the European Commission's Green Paper "Modernising Labour Law to Meet the Challenges of the 21st Century"," WSI Working Papers 149, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    12. Tangian, Andranik, 2008. "On the European readiness for flexicurity: Empirical evidence with OECD/HBS methodologies and reform proposals," WSI Working Papers 160, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy

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