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Downside Risk in Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Yigit Atilgan
  • K. Ozgur Demirtas

Abstract

This paper investigates the relation between downside risk and expected returns on the aggregate stock market in an international context. Nonparametric and parametric value at risk are used as measures of downside risk to determine the existence of a risk-return trade-off. For emerging markets, fixed effects panel data regressions provide evidence for a significantly positive relationship between monthly expected market returns and downside risk. This result is robust after controlling for aggregate dividend yield and price-to-fundamental ratios. The relationship between expected returns and downside risk is weaker for developed markets and vanishes when control variables are included in the specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Yigit Atilgan & K. Ozgur Demirtas, 2013. "Downside Risk in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 65-83, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:49:y:2013:i:3:p:65-83
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ali, Heba & Hegazy, Aya Yasser, 2022. "Dividend policy, risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 169-192.
    2. Sun, Kaisi & Wang, Hui & Zhu, Yifeng, 2022. "How is the change in left-tail risk priced in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Chiang, Thomas C. & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2016. "Downside risk and stock returns: An empirical analysis of the long-run and short-run dynamics from the G-7 Countries," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-001, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Rutkowska-Ziarko, Anna & Markowski, Lesław & Pyke, Christopher & Amin, Saqib, 2022. "Conventional and downside CAPM: The case of London stock exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Rutkowska – Ziarko, Anna & Markowski, Lesław & Abdou, Hussein A., 2024. "Conditional CAPM relationships in standard and accounting risk approaches," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Serkan İmişiker & Rasim Özcan & Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2015. "Price Manipulation by Intermediaries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 788-797, July.
    7. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Is there a risk-return trade-off in cryptocurrency markets? The case of Bitcoin," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-001 is not listed on IDEAS

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