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Modelling and forecasting liquidity supply using semiparametric factor dynamics

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  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Hautsch, Nikolaus
  • Mihoci, Andrija

Abstract

We model the dynamics of ask and bid curves in a limit order book market using a dynamic semiparametric factor model. The shape of the curves is captured by a factor structure which is estimated nonparametrically. Corresponding factor loadings are assumed to follow multivariate dynamics and are modelled using a vector autoregressive model. Applying the framework to four stocks traded at the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2002, we show that the suggested model captures the spatial and temporal dependencies of the limit order book. Relating the shape of the curves to variables reflecting the current state of the market, we show that the recent liquidity demand has the strongest impact. In an extensive forecasting analysis we show that the model is successful in forecasting the liquidity supply over various time horizons during a trading day. Moreover, it is shown that the model's forecasting power can be used to improve optimal order execution strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Mihoci, Andrija, 2009. "Modelling and forecasting liquidity supply using semiparametric factor dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-044, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2009-044
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    Cited by:

    1. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Huang, Ruihong, 2012. "The market impact of a limit order," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 501-522.
    2. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Majer, Piotr, 2012. "Yield curve modeling and forecasting using semiparametric factor dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-048, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    3. Nguyen, Giang & Engle, Robert & Fleming, Michael & Ghysels, Eric, 2020. "Liquidity and volatility in the U.S. Treasury market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 207-229.
    4. Meihui Guo & Yi-Ting Guo & Chi-Jeng Wang & Liang-Ching Lin, 2015. "Assessing influential trade effects via high-frequency market reactions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 1458-1471, July.
    5. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-032 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-044 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Huang, Ruihong, 2011. "Limit order flow, market impact and optimal order sizes: Evidence from NASDAQ TotalView-ITCH data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-056, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-056 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-025 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Choroś-Tomczyk, Barbara & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Ostap, 2016. "A semiparametric factor model for CDO surfaces dynamics," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 151-163.
    11. Axel Groß‐KlußMann & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2013. "Predicting Bid–Ask Spreads Using Long‐Memory Autoregressive Conditional Poisson Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), pages 724-742, December.
    12. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-026 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-048 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Andrija Mihoci & Christopher Hian-Ann Ting & Meng-Jou Lu & Kainat Khowaja, 2022. "Adaptive order flow forecasting with multiplicative error models," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 89-108, March.
    15. Geir H. Bjønnes & Carol L. Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2021. "Price discovery in two‐tier markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3109-3133, April.
    16. Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Chen & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang & Wei-Xing Zhou & H Eugene Stanley, 2016. "Limit-order book resiliency after effective market orders: Spread, depth and intensity," Papers 1602.00731, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2017.
    17. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2013. "European Markets’ Reactions to Exogenous Shocks: A High Frequency Data Analysis of the 2005 London Bombings," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(4), pages 1-14, November.
    18. Brownlees, Christian T. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2011. "Shrinkage estimation of semiparametric multiplicative error models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 365-378, April.
    19. Siikanen, Milla & Kanniainen, Juho & Luoma, Arto, 2017. "What drives the sensitivity of limit order books to company announcement arrivals?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 65-68.
    20. Chen Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Härdle Wolfgang Karl, 2017. "Data science and digital society," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 669-675, July.
    21. Siikanen, Milla & Kanniainen, Juho & Valli, Jaakko, 2017. "Limit order books and liquidity around scheduled and non-scheduled announcements: Empirical evidence from NASDAQ Nordic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 264-271.
    22. Kyle Bechler & Michael Ludkovski, 2017. "Order Flows and Limit Order Book Resiliency on the Meso-Scale," Papers 1708.02715, arXiv.org.
    23. Ying Chen & Wee Song Chua & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2019. "Forecasting limit order book liquidity supply–demand curves with functional autoregressive dynamics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1473-1489, September.
    24. Chen, Likai & Wang, Weining & Wu, Wei Biao, 2017. "Dynamic semiparametric factor model with a common break," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2017-026, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    25. Choros-Tomczyk, Barbara & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Ostap, 2013. "CDO surfaces dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-032, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Limit order book; liquidity risk; semiparametric model; factor structure; prediction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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