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CDO surfaces dynamics

Author

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  • Choros-Tomczyk, Barbara
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Okhrin, Ostap

Abstract

Modelling the dynamics of credit derivatives is a challenging task in finance and economics. The recent crisis has shown that the standard market models fail to measure and forecast financial risks and their characteristics. This work studies risk of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) by investigating the evolution of tranche spread surfaces and base correlation surfaces using a dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM). The DSFM offers a combination of flexible functional data analysis and dimension reduction methods, where the change in time is linear but the shape is nonparametric. The study provides an empirical analysis based on iTraxx Europe tranches and proposes an application to curve trading strategies. The DSFM allows us to describe the dynamics of all the tranches for all available maturities and series simultaneously which yields better understanding of the risk associated with trading CDOs and other structured products.

Suggested Citation

  • Choros-Tomczyk, Barbara & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Ostap, 2013. "CDO surfaces dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-032, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2013-032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Song, Song & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Ritov, Ya'acov, 2010. "High dimensional nonstationary time series modelling with generalized dynamic semiparametric factor model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-039, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaofeng Cao & Ostap Okhrin & Martin Odening & Matthias Ritter, 2015. "Modelling spatio-temporal variability of temperature," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 745-766, September.
    2. Petra Burdejová & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2019. "Dynamic semi-parametric factor model for functional expectiles," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 489-502, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    base correlation; collateralized debt obligation; curve trade; dynamic factor model; semiparametric model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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