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Beyond the business cycle: Factors driving aggregate mortality rates

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  • Hanewald, Katja

Abstract

This article provides a comprehensive econometric analysis of factors driving aggregate mortality rates over time. It differs from previous studies in this field by simultaneously considering an extensive set of macroeconomic, socio-economic and ecological factors as explanatory variables. Germany is chosen as an indicative example for other industrialized countries due to its advanced demographic transition process. Our regression analysis, which covers the time interval 1956-2004, indicates that sex- and age-specific mortality rates vary substantially in their response to external factors. Strongest associations are found with changes in real GDP, flu epidemics and the two life style variables alcohol and cigarette consumption in both univariate and multivariate setups. Further analysis shows that these effects are primarily contemporary, while other indicators such as weather conditions exert lagged effects. By combining variables in a multivariate model the share of explained data volatility can be substantially increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanewald, Katja, 2008. "Beyond the business cycle: Factors driving aggregate mortality rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-031, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2008-031
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-008 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Katja Hanewald & Thomas Post & Helmut Gründl, 2011. "Stochastic Mortality, Macroeconomic Risks and Life Insurer Solvency," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 36(3), pages 458-475, July.
    3. Reichmuth, Wolfgang H. & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "The influence of the business cycle on mortality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-059, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Hanewald, Katja, 2009. "Lee-Carter and the macroeconomy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-008, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    5. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-015 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Wu, Wen-Chieh & Cheng, Hui-Pei, 2010. "Symmetric mortality and asymmetric suicide cycles," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 1974-1981, June.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-059 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Qi Ming, 2013. "The Impact of Mortality Risk on the Asset and Liability Management of Insurance Companies," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 81-104, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregate mortality; business cycle; socio-economic factors; multivariate model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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