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Defending against speculative attacks

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  • Daniëls, Tijmen R.
  • Jager, Henk
  • Klaassen, Franc

Abstract

While virtually all currency crisismodels recognise that the fate of a currency peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, they seldom model how this is done. We incorporate themechanics of speculation and the interest rate defence against it in the model ofMorris and Shin (American Economic Review 88, 1998). Our model captures that the interest rate defence reduces speculators’ profits and thus postpones the crisis. It predicts that well before the fall of a currency interest rates are increased to offset the buildup of exchange market pressure, and this then unravels in a sharp depreciation. This pattern is at odds with predictions of standard models, but we show that it fits well with reality.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Jager, Henk & Klaassen, Franc, 2009. "Defending against speculative attacks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-011, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2009-011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Busch Ulrike & Nautz Dieter, 2010. "Controllability and Persistence of Money Market Rates along the Yield Curve: Evidence from the Euro Area," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 367-380, August.
    4. Strausz, Roland, 2009. "The political economy of regulatory risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
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    6. Michał Grajek & Lars-Hendrik Röller, 2012. "Regulation and Investment in Network Industries: Evidence from European Telecoms," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 189-216.
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    13. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange market pressure; currency crisis; interest rate defence; global game;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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