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Time-varying idiosyncratic risk and aggregate consumption dynamics

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  • McKay, Alisdair

Abstract

Long-term earnings losses for displaced workers are large and counter-cyclical. Similarly, the skewness of earnings growth rates is strongly pro-cyclical. This paper presents an incomplete markets business cycle model in which idiosyncratic risk varies over time in accordance with these empirical findings. These dynamics of idiosyncratic risk give rise to a cyclical precautionary savings motive that substantially raises the volatility of aggregate consumption growth. According to the model, idiosyncratic risk spiked during the Great Recession, leading to a substantial decline in aggregate consumption.

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  • McKay, Alisdair, 2017. "Time-varying idiosyncratic risk and aggregate consumption dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:88:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.05.002
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    4. Christian Bayer & Benjamin Born & Ralph Luetticke, 2024. "Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(5), pages 1211-1247, May.
    5. Hoffmann, Eran B. & Malacrino, Davide, 2019. "Employment time and the cyclicality of earnings growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 160-171.
    6. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Guerino Ardizzi & Simone Emiliozzi & Juri Marcucci & Libero Monteforte, 2019. "News and consumer card payments," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1233, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Shuhei Takahashi, 2020. "Time-Varying Wage Risk, Incomplete Markets, and Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 195-213, July.
    9. Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2018. "Pareto Extrapolation: Bridging Theoretical and Quantitative Models of Wealth Inequality," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt90n2h2bb, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    10. Stephen J. Terry, 2017. "Alternative Methods for Solving Heterogeneous Firm Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1081-1111, September.
    11. Stachurski, John & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2019. "An impossibility theorem for wealth in heterogeneous-agent models with limited heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 1-24.
    12. G. C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2019. "Household income requirements and financial conditions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1705-1730, November.
    13. Tao Wang, 2023. "Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models," Staff Working Papers 23-59, Bank of Canada.
    14. SeHyoun Ahn & Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Thomas Winberry & Christian Wolf, 2018. "When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-75.
    15. Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli & Jutong Pan, 2019. "Markov-Chain Approximations for Life-Cycle Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 183-201, October.
    16. Harmenberg, Karl, 2021. "Aggregating heterogeneous-agent models with permanent income shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Toda, Alexis Akira, 2019. "Wealth distribution with random discount factors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 101-113.
    18. Ursula Mello & Tomas Rodriguez Martinez, 2020. "Trade-induced Local Labor Market Shocks and Asymmetrical Labor Income Risk," Working Papers 1230, Barcelona School of Economics.
    19. Christina Patterson, 2019. "The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions," 2019 Meeting Papers 95, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Spyridon Lazarakis & James Malley, 2019. "Cyclical income risk in Great Britain," Working Papers 2019-03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    21. Ghosh, Anisha & Theloudis, Alexandros, 2023. "Consumption Partial Insurance in the Presence of Tail Income Risk," Other publications TiSEM c8da0a17-57cb-40bf-ab61-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    22. Hochmuth, Brigitte & Moyen, Stephane & Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Labor market reforms, precautionary savings, and global imbalances," Discussion Papers 13/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Di Maggio, Marco & Kermani, Amir & Ramcharan, Rodney & Yao, Vincent & Yu, Edison, 2022. "The pass-through of uncertainty shocks to households," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 85-104.
    24. Christina Patterson, 2022. "The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions," Working Papers 22-20, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    25. Eran B. Hoffmann & Mr. Davide Malacrino, 2018. "Employment Time and the Cyclicality of Earnings Growth," IMF Working Papers 2018/115, International Monetary Fund.

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