IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/107.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Demographic Change on Human Capital Accumulation

Author

Listed:
  • Fertig, Michael
  • Schmidt, Christoph M.
  • Sinning, Mathias G.

Abstract

This paper investigates whether and to what extent demographic change has an impact on human capital accumulation. The effect of the relative cohort size on educational attainment of young adults in Germany is analyzed utilizing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for West-German individuals of the birth cohorts 1966 to 1986. These are the cohorts which entered the labor market since the 1980's. Particular attention is paid to the effect of changes in labor market conditions, which constitute an important channel through which demographic change may affect human capital accumulation. Our findings suggest that the variables measuring demographic change exert a considerable though heterogeneous impact on the human capital accumulation of young Germans. Changing labor market conditions during the 1980¿s and 1990's exhibit a sizeable impact on both the highest schooling and the highest professional degree obtained by younger cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Sinning, Mathias G., 2009. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Human Capital Accumulation," Ruhr Economic Papers 107, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/29933/1/601204077.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stapleton, David C & Young, Douglas J, 1988. "Educational Attainment and Cohort Size," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(3), pages 330-361, July.
    2. Clark, Damon, 2002. "The Impact of Local Labour Market Conditions on Participation in Further Education in England," IZA Discussion Papers 550, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 65-97, October.
    4. Fertig, Michael, 2003. "Who's to Blame? The Determinants of German Students' Achievement in the PISA 2000 Study," RWI Discussion Papers 4, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    5. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2003. "Gerontocracy in Motion? - European Cross-Country Evidence on the Labor Market Consequences of Population Ageing," RWI Discussion Papers 8, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    6. Connelly, Rachel & Gottschalk, Peter, 1995. "The Effect of Cohort Composition on Human Capital Accumulation across Generations," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 155-176, January.
    7. Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 289-318.
    8. Dahlberg, Susanne & Nahum, Ruth-Aïda, 2003. "Cohort Effects on Earnings Profiles: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2003:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    9. Christoph Schmidt, 2000. "The heterogeneity and cyclical sensitivity of unemployment : and exploration of German labour market flows ; the European unemployment problem," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(01), pages 17-20, October.
    10. Rachel Connelly, 1986. "A Framework for Analyzing the Impact of Cohort Size on Education and Labor Earning," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(4), pages 543-562.
    11. Wright, Robert E, 1991. "Cohort Size and Earnings in Great Britain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 4(4), pages 295-305, November.
    12. Woessmann, Ludger, 2004. "How Equal Are Educational Opportunities? Family Background and Student Achievement in Europe and the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 1284, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Klevmarken, N Anders, 1993. "Demographics and the Dynamics of Earnings," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 105-122, May.
    14. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duncan Roth & John Moffat, 2014. "Cohort size and youth unemployment in Europe: a regional analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1546, European Regional Science Association.
    2. de Graaff, Thomas & Ozgen, Ceren & Roth, Duncan H.W., 2018. "Varying Youth Cohort Effects on Regional Labour Market Outcomes in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 11932, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Reiling, Rune Borgan, 2016. "Does size matter? Educational attainment and cohort size," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 73-89.
    4. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2018. "Ageing labour: How does demographic change affect regional human capital?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1832, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2018.
    5. Paula Prenzel & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Labor Force Aging and the Composition of Regional Human Capital," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 97(2), pages 140-163, March.
    6. Okoampah, Sarah, 2016. "Cohort size effects on wages, working status, and work time," Ruhr Economic Papers 629, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2016. "The Cohort Size-Wage Relationship in Europe," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 415-432, December.
    8. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    9. Gordey Yastrebov, 2021. "The Demographic Echo of War and educational attainment in Soviet Russia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(22), pages 727-768.
    10. Garloff, Alfred & Roth, Duncan, 2016. "Regional age structure and young workers' wages," IAB-Discussion Paper 201606, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    11. Mikko Myrskylä & Julia Hellstrand & Sampo Lappo & Angelo Lorenti & Jessica Nisén & Ziwei Rao & Heikki Tikanmäki, 2024. "Declining fertility, human capital investment, and economic sustainability," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. Lumpe, Claudia, 2017. "Public beliefs in social mobility and high-skilled migration," Ruhr Economic Papers 691, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Claudia Lumpe, 2019. "Public beliefs in social mobility and high-skilled migration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 981-1008, July.
    15. Ifeanyi J. Ozulumba, PhD Candidate & Amaka G. Metu & Geraldine Nzeribe, 2024. "An Evaluation of the Impact of Migration on Human Capital Development: Evidence from the ECOWAS," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(7), pages 1086-1095, July.
    16. Michaela Fuchs, 2016. "Unemployment decline in East Germany: the role of demography," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 36(2), pages 145-168, October.
    17. Fuchs, Michaela & Weyh, Antje, 2014. "Demography and unemployment in East Germany : how close are the ties?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201426, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2016. "The Cohort Size-Wage Relationship in Europe," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 415-432, December.
    2. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2003. "Gerontocracy in Motion? - European Cross-Country Evidence on the Labor Market Consequences of Population Ageing," RWI Discussion Papers 8, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    3. Michael Fertig & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2004. "Gerontocracy in Motion? – European Cross-Country Evidence on the Labor Market Consequences of Population Ageing," RWI Discussion Papers 0008, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    4. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. repec:zbw:rwidps:0008 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Torge Middendorf, 2007. "The Impact of Cohort Size and Local Labor Market Conditions on Human Capital Accumulation in Europe," Ruhr Economic Papers 0010, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Middendorf, Torge, 2007. "The Impact of Cohort Size and Local Labor Market Conditions on Human Capital Accumulation in Europe," Ruhr Economic Papers 10, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Christoph M. Schmidt & Michael Fertig & Mathias G. Sinning, 2009. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Human Capital Accumulation," Ruhr Economic Papers 0107, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    9. repec:zbw:rwirep:0010 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0107 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Duncan Roth & John Moffat, 2014. "Cohort size and youth unemployment in Europe: a regional analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1546, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Garloff, Alfred & Roth, Duncan, 2016. "Regional age structure and young workers' wages," IAB-Discussion Paper 201606, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    13. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Cohort Size Effects on US Enrollment Decisions," Williams Project on the Economics of Higher Education DP-36, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    14. Mark Berger, 1989. "Demographic Cycles, Cohort Size, and Earnings," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(2), pages 311-321, May.
    15. Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 2000. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets (A Cross-National Analysis)," NBER Chapters, in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 57-106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Gordey Yastrebov, 2021. "The Demographic Echo of War and educational attainment in Soviet Russia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(22), pages 727-768.
    17. Irene Mosca, 2009. "Population Ageing and the Labour Market: Evidence from Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(2), pages 371-395, June.
    18. Dahlberg, Susanne & Nahum, Ruth-Aïda, 2003. "Cohort Effects on Earnings Profiles: Evidence from Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2003:3, Institute for Futures Studies.
    19. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Kohn, Karsten, 2006. "Skill Wage Premia, Employment, and Cohort Effects: Are Workers in Germany All of the Same Type?," IZA Discussion Papers 2185, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Michael Papadopoulos & Margarita Patria & Robert K. Triest, 2017. "Population Aging, Labor Demand, and the Structure of Wages," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 42(3), pages 453-474, July.
    21. Morin, Louis-Philippe, 2015. "Cohort size and youth earnings: Evidence from a quasi-experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 99-111.
    22. David Neumark & Maysen Yen, 2020. "Relative Sizes of Age Cohorts and Labor Force Participation of Older Workers," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 1-31, February.
    23. Sun, Shengmin & Chen, Jiawei & Chen, Jiaying, 2023. "Cohort crowding in education and employment: Evidence from China's compulsory education law," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 391-411.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic change; schooling; vocational training;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.