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A Framework for Analyzing the Impact of Cohort Size on Education and Labor Earning

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  • Rachel Connelly

Abstract

The paper analyzes three models of labor demand solving for the change in wages of a given labor group due to a change in the size of a birth cohort. When the production function includes age-schooling groups as separate factors, an increase in the size of one birth cohort changes the size of several labor market groups. Also, in this case, the demand effect of changing factor size is joined by a supply effect of changing schooling proportions. Ignoring the supply effect may cause us to overestimate the effect of a large birth cohort on wages of young skilled workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachel Connelly, 1986. "A Framework for Analyzing the Impact of Cohort Size on Education and Labor Earning," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(4), pages 543-562.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:21:y:1986:i:4:p:543-562
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2016. "The Cohort Size-Wage Relationship in Europe," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 415-432, December.
    2. Middendorf, Torge, 2007. "The Impact of Cohort Size and Local Labor Market Conditions on Human Capital Accumulation in Europe," Ruhr Economic Papers 10, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Michael S. McPherson & Morton Owen Schapiro & Dennis Ahlburg, 1994. "Predicting Higher Education Enrollment in the United States: An Evaluation of Different Modelling Approaches," Williams Project on the Economics of Higher Education DP-26, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    4. Piekkola, Hannu, 2006. "Tax cuts and employment: Evidence from Finnish linked employer-employee data," Discussion Papers 1041, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    5. Duncan Roth & John Moffat, 2014. "Cohort size and youth unemployment in Europe: a regional analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1546, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Sinning, Mathias G., 2009. "The impact of demographic change on human capital accumulation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 659-668, December.
    7. Torge Middendorf, 2007. "The Impact of Cohort Size and Local Labor Market Conditions on Human Capital Accumulation in Europe," Ruhr Economic Papers 0010, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Ming-Ching Luoh, 2003. "Gender Differences in Completed Schooling," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 559-577, August.
    9. Connelly, Rachel & Gottschalk, Peter, 1995. "The Effect of Cohort Composition on Human Capital Accumulation across Generations," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 155-176, January.
    10. Morin, Louis-Philippe, 2015. "Cohort size and youth earnings: Evidence from a quasi-experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 99-111.
    11. Mark Berger, 1989. "Demographic Cycles, Cohort Size, and Earnings," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(2), pages 311-321, May.
    12. Sun, Shengmin & Chen, Jiawei & Chen, Jiaying, 2023. "Cohort crowding in education and employment: Evidence from China's compulsory education law," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 391-411.
    13. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Cohort Size Effects on US Enrollment Decisions," Williams Project on the Economics of Higher Education DP-36, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    14. Gordey Yastrebov, 2021. "The Demographic Echo of War and educational attainment in Soviet Russia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(22), pages 727-768.
    15. Garloff, Alfred & Roth, Duncan, 2016. "Regional age structure and young workers' wages," IAB-Discussion Paper 201606, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Mikko Myrskylä & Julia Hellstrand & Sampo Lappo & Angelo Lorenti & Jessica Nisén & Ziwei Rao & Heikki Tikanmäki, 2024. "Declining fertility, human capital investment, and economic sustainability," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. repec:zbw:rwirep:0010 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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