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Population aging, labor demand, and the structure of wages

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  • Michael Papadopoulos
  • Margarita Patria
  • Robert K. Triest

Abstract

One consequence of demographic change is substantial shifts in the age distribution of the working-age population. As the baby boom generation ages, the usual historical pattern of a high ratio of younger workers relative to older workers has been replaced by a pattern of roughly equal percentages of workers of different ages. One might expect that the increasing relative supply of older workers would lower the wage premium paid for older, more experienced workers. This paper provides strong empirical support for this hypothesis. Econometric estimates imply that the size of one?s birth cohort affects wages throughout one?s working life, with members of relatively large cohorts (at all stages of their careers) earning a significantly lower wage than members of smaller cohorts. Estimated elasticities of wages with respect to the relative size of one?s own cohort are generally between -0.05 and -0.10, and are of similar magnitude for men and for women. Our results suggest that cohort size effects are quantitatively important and should be incorporated into public policy analyses.

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  • Michael Papadopoulos & Margarita Patria & Robert K. Triest, 2017. "Population aging, labor demand, and the structure of wages," Working Papers 17-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:17-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alicia H. Munnell & Mauricio Soto & Robert K. Triest & Natalia A. Zhivan, 2008. "How Much Do State Economics and Other Characteristics Affect Retirement Behavior?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-12, Center for Retirement Research, revised Sep 2008.
    2. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2016. "The Cohort Size-Wage Relationship in Europe," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 415-432, December.
    3. Amaral, Ernesto F. L. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo L G & Potter, Joseph E, 2016. "The influence of internal migration on male earnings in Brazil, 1970–2000," OSF Preprints y8v2d, Center for Open Science.
    4. Ernesto Amaral & Bernardo Queiroz & Júlia Calazans, 2015. "Demographic changes, educational improvements, and earnings in Brazil and Mexico," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Ulrich Thiessen & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Does Aging Influence Sectoral Employment Shares? Evidence from Panel Data," KOF Working papers 08-214, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Ernesto F. L. Amaral & Eduardo Luiz Goncalves Rios-Neto & Joseph E. Potter, 2015. "The Influence of Internal Migration on Male Earnings in Brazil, 1970-2000," Working Papers WR-1090, RAND Corporation.
    7. Pohl, Carsten, 2013. "Demografie, Erwerbsbeteiligung und Erwerbslosigkeit in Nordrhein-Westfalen : Analyse der Zusammenhänge zwischen 1996 und 2011," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Nordrhein-Westfalen 201301, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Teresa Ghilarducci & Michael Papadopoulos & Siavash Radpour, 2017. "Relative Wages in Aging America: The Baby Boomer Effect," SCEPA working paper series. 2017-03, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    9. Garloff, Alfred & Pohl, Carsten & Schanne, Norbert, 2011. "Do small labor market entry cohorts reduce unemployment?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201118, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. Amaral, Ernesto F. L. & Potter, Joseph E & Hamermesh, Daniel & Rios-Neto, Eduardo L G, 2013. "Age, education, and earnings in the course of Brazilian development: Does composition matter?," OSF Preprints y7asb, Center for Open Science.
    11. Peters, Cornelius, 2015. "Do age complementarities affect labour productivity? Evidence from German firm level data," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112941, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Alfred Garloff & Carsten Pohl & Norbert Schanne, 2011. "Do smaller labour market entry cohorts really reduce German unemployment?," ERSA conference papers ersa10p658, European Regional Science Association.
    13. Marco Magnani, 2020. "Precautionary retirement and precautionary saving," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 49-77, January.
    14. Ernesto F. L. Amaral & Bernardo L. Queiroz & Julia A. Calazans, 2015. "Effects of Demographic and Educational Changes on the Labor Markets of Brazil and Mexico," Working Papers WR-1089, RAND Corporation.
    15. Majchrowska Aleksandra & Broniatowska Paulina, 2018. "The workforce’s age structure and wages—Do age and the type of occupation matter?," Lodz Economics Working Papers 8/2018, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    16. Siliverstovs, Boriss & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Thiessen, Ulrich, 2011. "Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 244-260, June.
    17. Kirsch, Florian & Barabas, György & Jessen, Robin & Schmidt, Torsten, 2021. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2026: Mittelfristig nur verhaltene Ausweitung der Wirtschaftsleistung," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 72(4), pages 39-50.
    18. Ernesto F.L. Amaral & Joseph E. Potter & Daniel Hamermesh & Eduardo L.G. Rios Neto, 2013. "Age, education, and earnings in the course of Brazilian development: Does composition matter?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(20), pages 581-612.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor market demographics; population aging; wage structure; social insurance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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