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The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness revisited: Corroborating evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Bossone, Biagio
  • Cuccia, Andrea

Abstract

This study revisits and tests empirically the Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI), which analyzes how the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy in open and globally financially integrated economies is influenced by global investor decisions (Bossone, The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness, 2019). The PTI shows that when an economy is heavily indebted and is perceived by the market to be poorly credible, investors hold it to a tighter intertemporal budget constraint and policies aimed to stimulate output growth dissipate into domestic currency depreciation and higher inflation, with limited or no impact on output, or with lower output and lower inflation. On the other hand, markets afford highly credible economies much greater space for effective and noninflationary macro policies. The study leads to a very basic advice: policymakers of an internationally highly integrated economy should keep public liabilities (the stock of both central bank money and public debt) at low levels: the larger the liabilities, the higher the degree of surrender of the country's national policy sovereignty to external forces and interests.

Suggested Citation

  • Bossone, Biagio & Cuccia, Andrea, 2020. "The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness revisited: Corroborating evidence," Economics Discussion Papers 2020-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:20202
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buiter, Willem H., 2014. "The simple analytics of helicopter money: Why it works - always," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-51.
    2. Víctor M. Cuevas Ahumada, 2009. "The Short-Term Effects of Fiscal Policy in Mexico: An Empirical Study," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 24(1), pages 109-144.
    3. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation (and policy effectiveness)," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-538, June.
    5. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 31-34, May.
    6. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credibility; exchange rate; financial integration; fiscal and monetary policies; global investor(s); inflation; intertemporal budget constraint; policy effectiveness; public debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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